Week 6 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions
Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor
Side: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Deebo Samuel Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Deebo's catch rate over expectation is a league-worst 19.2%, and the Falcons allow a catch rate over expectation of +6.3% to receivers, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Samuel's already at 53.2 yards per game despite underperforming drastically.w
Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst
Side: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-104)
I have two separate power-ranking models (one with priors and one that ignores them to look exclusively at 2022 data). Both have the Bills first among all teams. But both say the Chiefs shouldn't be 2.5-point underdogs here with one having them favored and the other viewing it as basically a toss-up. I'm on board with that sentiment. Although the Bills have been sick this year, games against the Dolphins and Ravens showed they aren't infallible. The Chiefs have their faults, too, but they're still clearly an upper-echelon team. I just can't get to 2.5 with this game being in Kansas City.
Player Prop: David Njoku Any Time Touchdown (+270)
Austan Kas, Editor
Side: Baltimore Ravens -6.0 (-110)
Disregard the records for the Ravens and Giants. Baltimore is the much better squad. By our nERD metric, the Ravens are the league's 5th-best team while the Giants rank 20th. In each of their two losses, the Ravens were either winning or tied with under a minute to play. Lamar Jackson should feast on a Giants' D that is just 20th by our schedule-adjusted numbers, and if Baltimore can force the Giants to have to go to the air, the Ravens can win comfortably.
Player Prop: Garrett Wilson Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Kenyatta Storin, Editor
Side: Carolina Panthers +10.0 (-110)
The Panthers are without Baker Mayfield and just fired their head coach, but it's hard to see them being that much worse off. In terms of Passing NEP per drop back, Mayfield has actually been the league's worst quarterback this year, so P.J. Walker my not even be a downgrade. Carolina also ranks 11th in schedule-adjusted defense, per numberFire's metrics. Add in a struggling Rams offense, and this just feels like too large a spread.
Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 201.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Tom Vecchio, Editor
Side: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Giants are going to be missing a few players on offense, as they have already ruled out Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay, and they have Wan'Dale Robinson listed as questionable. Barkley comes in with a solid 18.3% target share -- the highest on the team since Sterling Shepard is out for the year. The Ravens' pass defense is one we should be looking to attack with running backs because they have allowed the fifth-most (258) receiving yards to the position.
Austin Swaim, Editor
Side: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
A potential negative script is my only concern with Barkley in this spot; he got just 14 carries in the Giants' lone loss this year. But this Giants offense will give him opportunities, and he won't need many. Barkley's averaging 5.5 yards per tote, and running the ball is how you have to attack the Baltimore defense. The Ravens are the 8th-worst team versus the run, per our metrics, but they're the 12th-best team against the pass. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Barkley over the century mark once again.