3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 6
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Justin Jefferson Any Time Touchdown (-110)
With a 24.25 implied team total, the Vikings are expected to put up some points this week, and that means looking for some player props.
When it comes to the Vikings' offense, it starts and ends with Justin Jefferson. He's one of the elite receivers in the league and hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 1 -- although he had a rushing touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.
Jefferson comes in playing on 97.2% of the offensive snaps and running a route on 97.1% of the drop backs, and he leads the team with a 29.6% target share, 41.3% air yards share, and 32.4% red zone target share. Jefferson has been elite in every category this season and comes in with 0.75 Net Expected Points (NEP) per target and an 82.50% success rate.
His NEP per target is the 11th highest in the league among wide receivers with at least 30 targets. That should come in handy in his matchup versus the Dolphins, who are struggling on defense this season.
Through five weeks, the Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most (867) receiving yards to wide receivers and are tied for the fifth-most (5) touchdowns allowed. Per our metrics, the Dolphins have the seventh-worst pass defense in the league, putting Jefferson in a very favorable matchup.
All of this should lead to Jefferson finding the end zone via the passing game for the first time since the opening week.
Robert Tonyan Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Packers are 7.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets and come in with a 26.25 implied team total. After a rough loss to the New York Giants last week, the Packers should look to get their offense going early.
The matchup against the Jets is a solid one, specifically for tight ends this season. Through five weeks, the Jets have allowed 270 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, which is the 13th most in the league. Tonyan's role for the Packers has been a consistent one and should put him in a spot to hit the over this week.
Tonyan is playing on 44.4% of the snaps, running a route on 50.5% of drop backs, and has a 12.1% target share. While the 12.1% target share is modest in the grand scheme of things, we have to look at it in the context of the Packers' offense.
There has been plenty of talk about the Packers' passing offense and the lack of consistency for Aaron Rodgers. Due to that, we see Allen Lazard leading the team with a 19.2% target share and Romeo Doubs behind him with a 17.6% target share.
There's no doubt that 12.1% is modest when compared to tight ends across the league, but it's actually not that far off from the highest options on the Packers.
Add all of this up and our projections have Tonyan going for 29.58 receiving yards this week, hitting the over on his prop.
Saquon Barkley Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
A positive passing game script should put Saquon Barkley in a great spot this week.
The New York Giants are 6.0-point home underdogs as they host the Baltimore Ravens with a 45.5-point total. The Giants are going to be missing a few players on offense, as they have already ruled out Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay, and they have Wan'Dale Robinson listed as questionable.
We turn to Barkley, who comes in with a solid 18.3% target share -- the highest on the team since Sterling Shepard is out for the year. The injuries are piling up for the Giants, and they are putting Barkley in a phenomenal spot for offensive production.
He's already playing on 84.4% of the offensive snaps and running a route on 65.3% of drop backs. It wouldn't be a shock to see the routes increase this week due to the number of injuries among their wide receivers.
When it comes to the matchup, the Ravens' pass defense is one we should be looking to attack with running backs because they have allowed the fifth-most (258) receiving yards to the position this season.
Barkley comes in projected for 32.6 receiving yards, which puts him over on his prop this week.