3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 6
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Brian Robinson Over 45.5 Rushing yards (-114)
A modest 37.5-point over/under has this game shaping up to be a lower-scoring matchup, but we can still find some props worth considering. To start, we go to the Commadners' running back, Brian Robinson, and over 45.5 rushing yards.
Robinson made his season debut last week after being shot during the preseason, a great sign to see. In that debut, he piled up only 9 carries for 22 yards. He played 27.6% of the offensive snaps, with no work in the passing game. A modest debut but it wasn't totally unexpected to see.
What is worth noting is that the Commanders' other running back, Antonio Gibson, played only 32.0% of the snaps last week, which was down from Week 4 when he was at 38.0%, which was down from Week 3 when he was at 44.6%. Gibson has seen his role steadily decline in recent weeks, indicating he shouldn't be too much of a threat to Robinson's playing time.
We turn to the Bears' defense and it hasn't been good this season. They have allowed 622 rushing yards to opposing running backs, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. They've also allowed 170.0 rushing yards per game, which is the second-worst in the NFL. The Bears come in with the ninth-worst rush defense overall, per our metrics. None of that is good.
This puts Robinson in a good spot to step into a larger role and make an impact for Washington. Our projections have him going for 60.45 rushing yards, clearly hitting the over on his 45.5 prop.
Justin Fields Under 23.5 Passing Attempts (-130)
Next up is under 23.5 passing attempts for Justin Fields.
If you've been following the NFL to start the season, one of the storylines is the lack of production from Fields and the Bears' offense. Through five weeks, the Bears come in with a 39.85% pass-play percentage, which is the lowest in the league. This has led to Fields attempting 22 passes or fewer in each of the five games, three games at 17 attempts or lower, for an average of 17.6 attempts per game.
This is simply not an offense that is going to be pushing the ball downfield a lot. To make matters worse, the Commanders' pass defense has actually been pretty good this season, holding opposing offenses to a 58.90% completion percentage, which is the fifth-best in the league. When the Bears actually do decide to pass the ball, it's going to be one of the tougher matchups in the league.
This should be another run-heavy game from the Bears, leading to Fields hitting the under on 23.5 passing attempts tonight.
Cole Kmet Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Finally, we can look at under 27.5 receiving yards for Cole Kmet.
As noted above, the Bears are not a pass-happy team in any capacity and that should point us in the direction of unders for all involved. Kmet's receiving prop is sitting at 27.5 tonight, and the under is the spot to go for a few reasons.
Starting off, the Commanders have only allowed 168 receiving yards to tight ends this season, which is the sixth-fewest in the league. Positionally, it's a very tough defensive matchup for an offense that doesn't pass the ball a ton. So, when they do pass the ball, the tight end shouldn't be the primary option.
Next, Kmet comes in with a very meager 14.1% target share and a 5.0 average depth of target (aDOT). He isn't targeted often and isn't targeted downfield -- yet another negative for his potential production.
All of this leads to Kmet being projected for a measily 24.08 receiving yards tonight.