NFL
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 5

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Josh
Allen
$9,000 25.6 2.87 19.3 31.2 53.5% 2.34
Jalen
Hurts
$8,600 24.1 2.81 18.0 30.4 47.4% 1.90
Tom
Brady
$7,800 19.3 2.45 14.1 24.1 20.5% 0.86
Justin
Herbert
$8,200 19.2 2.34 14.1 24.0 21.1% 0.64
Kyler
Murray
$8,100 18.7 2.34 13.4 24.3 21.6% 0.68
Kirk
Cousins
$7,100 17.8 2.44 12.3 22.2 14.3% 0.82
Teddy
Bridgewater
$6,400 17.8 2.80 12.2 23.0 16.7% 1.59
Matthew
Stafford
$7,400 17.4 2.36 12.7 22.1 15.5% 0.70
Trevor
Lawrence
$7,600 17.2 2.32 12.6 22.8 15.8% 0.69
Andy
Dalton
$6,500 16.2 2.55 11.6 21.3 11.6% 1.06
Geno
Smith
$6,900 15.6 2.23 10.6 20.2 9.4% 0.55
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,900 15.4 2.25 10.6 20.4 9.9% 0.60
Carson
Wentz
$6,800 15.4 2.27 10.3 20.4 9.2% 0.65
Jared
Goff
$8,000 15.4 1.89 10.3 20.5 9.4% 0.20
Jacoby
Brissett
$6,700 15.2 2.25 10.2 20.1 8.0% 0.63
Bailey
Zappe
$6,300 15.1 2.39 10.3 20.2 9.1% 0.83
Zach
Wilson
$7,200 15.1 2.06 9.9 19.9 8.1% 0.38
Marcus
Mariota
$6,800 15.1 2.20 10.1 20.3 8.9% 0.58
Justin
Fields
$6,600 14.9 2.28 9.7 19.6 9.2% 0.60
Jimmy
Garoppolo
$7,000 14.3 2.02 9.3 19.2 7.2% 0.35
Davis
Mills
$6,400 14.1 2.21 9.3 19.3 8.1% 0.60
Cooper
Rush
$6,500 13.8 2.18 9.8 18.9 7.6% 0.52
Kenny
Pickett
$6,500 13.0 1.97 8.0 17.9 5.0% 0.36
Baker
Mayfield
$6,400 12.0 1.81 7.2 16.5 2.9% 0.26

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Christian
McCaffrey
$8,700 16.9 1.93 11.1 22.6 35.1% 1.52
Derrick
Henry
$8,900 16.8 1.86 11.7 22.1 32.7% 1.42
Dalvin
Cook
$7,300 16.3 2.18 10.4 21.4 31.8% 2.31
Leonard
Fournette
$7,800 16.2 2.15 11.3 22.2 34.0% 2.31
Austin
Ekeler
$9,000 15.7 1.79 10.6 21.5 31.5% 1.09
Alvin
Kamara
$7,000 15.2 2.19 9.7 21.0 28.6% 2.15
Nick
Chubb
$9,400 14.9 1.63 10.2 19.9 24.4% 0.67
Jeff
Wilson
$6,500 13.4 2.13 8.4 19.0 20.7% 1.96
Jamaal
Williams
$8,300 13.3 1.62 8.4 18.6 19.3% 0.72
Dameon
Pierce
$7,500 13.1 1.75 8.4 18.6 20.0% 1.09
Breece
Hall
$6,600 13.0 1.94 7.9 18.3 18.9% 1.49
James
Robinson
$8,000 12.9 1.58 7.7 17.9 16.7% 0.67
Damien
Harris
$7,200 12.7 1.76 8.1 17.4 16.3% 1.08
Miles
Sanders
$7,600 12.4 1.68 7.7 17.4 15.6% 0.77
Rhamondre
Stevenson
$6,000 12.1 1.95 7.3 17.0 15.1% 1.62
Devin
Singletary
$6,000 11.7 1.99 6.5 16.9 13.2% 1.41
David
Montgomery
$7,100 11.3 1.57 6.9 15.6 11.2% 0.63
James
Conner
$6,700 11.2 1.70 6.7 15.7 10.0% 0.88
Najee
Harris
$6,600 11.1 1.72 6.6 16.0 9.7% 0.91
Rashaad
Penny
$6,900 11.0 1.60 6.3 15.5 9.6% 0.67
Raheem
Mostert
$5,800 10.6 1.84 6.4 14.9 8.8% 1.19
Ezekiel
Elliott
$6,200 9.9 1.51 5.1 14.4 7.1% 0.66
Kareem
Hunt
$5,900 9.7 1.72 5.2 14.3 6.9% 0.88
Tyler
Allgeier
$5,700 9.6 1.67 5.4 13.9 5.6% 0.87
Cam
Akers
$6,100 9.3 1.45 4.7 13.6 5.4% 0.58
Antonio
Gibson
$6,300 9.0 1.38 4.4 13.0 4.1% 0.42
Travis
Etienne
$5,600 8.9 1.59 4.6 13.2 5.2% 0.73
Chase
Edmonds
$5,700 8.8 1.64 4.3 13.6 5.6% 0.78
Tony
Pollard
$5,700 8.4 1.45 3.8 12.6 3.7% 0.56
Darrell
Henderson
$6,100 7.9 1.30 3.3 12.0 3.4% 0.37
Michael
Carter
$5,500 7.6 1.30 3.3 11.3 1.5% 0.44
Rex
Burkhead
$5,100 7.5 1.43 3.0 11.9 2.7% 0.59
Khalil
Herbert
$7,100 7.2 0.94 2.7 10.6 1.9% 0.09
J.D.
McKissic
$5,100 7.0 1.33 2.5 11.2 1.8% 0.49
Brian
Robinson
$5,500 6.6 1.29 2.9 11.0 0.8% 0.40
Mark
Ingram
$6,000 6.6 1.12 2.6 10.9 1.3% 0.22
Rachaad
White
$5,800 6.4 1.09 2.0 10.6 1.1% 0.25
Caleb
Huntley
$5,600 6.2 1.08 2.1 10.5 0.6% 0.26
Dontrell
Hilliard
$5,000 5.7 1.14 1.3 9.6 1.4% 0.32
Kenneth
Walker
III
$5,300 5.5 0.97 1.6 9.2 0.7% 0.24
Alexander
Mattison
$7,300 5.5 0.74 1.2 9.5 1.1% 0.04

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Cooper
Kupp
$9,500 19.2 1.99 13.7 24.2 56.5% 2.09
Justin
Jefferson
$8,800 16.2 1.83 11.0 21.7 44.8% 1.31
Tyreek
Hill
$8,400 15.9 1.89 10.9 20.5 42.0% 1.49
Deebo
Samuel
$7,300 15.6 2.12 11.9 19.1 35.8% 3.69
Stefon
Diggs
$8,600 15.5 1.84 11.2 20.6 39.3% 1.37
A.J.
Brown
$8,000 15.2 1.99 10.0 21.5 41.8% 1.50
Jaylen
Waddle
$7,700 13.8 1.79 9.7 17.6 25.6% 1.07
Mike
Evans
$7,500 13.8 1.80 8.6 18.3 28.5% 1.09
Christian
Kirk
$7,600 13.4 1.80 8.2 18.4 29.4% 1.01
Mike
Williams
$7,400 13.2 1.69 8.1 17.4 24.7% 0.90
Marquise
Brown
$7,800 13.0 1.65 8.3 18.0 27.3% 0.83
Amon-Ra
St.
Brown
$8,200 12.9 1.59 9.5 16.6 20.5% 0.52
CeeDee
Lamb
$7,200 12.8 1.78 7.6 17.6 26.2% 1.02
Chris
Olave
$6,900 12.6 1.88 6.5 19.2 31.8% 1.28
D.K.
Metcalf
$7,100 12.5 1.83 8.0 18.2 27.4% 1.16
Brandin
Cooks
$6,800 12.0 1.75 7.2 16.4 20.2% 0.94
Tyler
Lockett
$6,800 11.9 1.77 6.8 17.8 26.2% 1.07
Chris
Godwin
$7,000 11.8 1.66 8.0 15.5 15.3% 0.80
DeVonta
Smith
$6,600 11.3 1.73 6.1 15.9 18.6% 0.86
Drake
London
$6,200 11.1 1.80 6.2 15.5 17.2% 1.02
Amari
Cooper
$7,000 10.9 1.60 6.5 15.6 16.6% 0.68
Curtis
Samuel
$5,800 10.6 1.85 7.6 13.3 5.5% 1.24
Gabriel
Davis
$6,000 10.1 1.69 6.1 14.8 15.1% 0.99
Diontae
Johnson
$6,700 9.9 1.50 5.6 14.4 12.8% 0.56
Robert
Woods
$5,900 9.8 1.65 5.8 13.3 8.7% 0.72
D.J.
Moore
$5,900 9.8 1.64 5.5 14.0 10.6% 0.80
Terry
McLaurin
$6,500 9.6 1.47 5.3 14.2 11.2% 0.56
Adam
Thielen
$6,300 9.6 1.51 5.8 13.4 6.9% 0.55
Garrett
Wilson
$6,000 9.4 1.58 5.6 13.5 8.2% 0.69
Brandon
Aiyuk
$5,900 9.2 1.53 5.2 12.9 6.8% 0.59
Darnell
Mooney
$5,800 8.7 1.52 4.6 12.6 9.2% 0.57
Zay
Jones
$5,700 8.6 1.51 4.6 12.5 5.7% 0.58
Josh
Reynolds
$6,400 8.3 1.36 4.0 13.0 8.7% 0.40
Josh
Palmer
$5,500 8.3 1.54 5.0 11.5 3.2% 0.50
Elijah
Moore
$5,300 7.6 1.51 3.8 11.7 4.4% 0.56
Rondale
Moore
$5,200 7.4 1.48 5.2 10.1 0.3% 0.35
Corey
Davis
$5,900 7.4 1.27 3.4 11.3 4.3% 0.31
Donovan
Peoples-Jones
$5,400 7.4 1.37 3.1 11.6 5.3% 0.50
Marvin
Jones
$5,200 7.3 1.49 3.8 11.5 3.0% 0.57
George
Pickens
$5,500 7.3 1.36 2.9 11.6 7.2% 0.46
Jarvis
Landry
$5,500 7.2 1.30 3.7 10.3 2.2% 0.26
Allen
Robinson
$5,700 7.2 1.32 3.4 11.1 3.2% 0.32
Nico
Collins
$5,400 7.1 1.30 3.0 11.0 2.9% 0.41
Chase
Claypool
$5,600 7.1 1.26 3.3 10.9 3.1% 0.35
Jakobi
Meyers
$6,000 7.0 1.18 3.2 10.5 1.5% 0.16
Robbie
Anderson
$5,500 7.0 1.26 3.1 10.7 3.2% 0.36
Khalil
Shakir
$5,000 6.9 1.36 3.3 10.0 2.8% 0.41
DeVante
Parker
$5,700 6.8 1.22 3.6 10.6 3.5% 0.30
Nelson
Agholor
$5,500 6.6 1.18 2.6 10.4 2.9% 0.31
Michael
Gallup
$6,000 6.5 1.05 2.9 9.9 1.6% 0.16
Olamide
Zaccheaus
$5,300 6.2 1.08 2.6 9.3 0.6% 0.21
Kyle
Philips
$5,200 5.9 1.11 3.0 9.2 0.9% 0.19
Equanimeous
St.
Brown
$5,200 5.4 1.13 2.4 9.1 0.6% 0.20
Noah
Brown
$5,400 5.4 0.96 1.9 8.4 1.2% 0.15
Marquez
Callaway
$5,100 5.4 1.04 1.9 8.9 0.7% 0.20
K.J.
Osborn
$5,200 5.3 0.94 2.0 8.2 0.3% 0.12
Russell
Gage
$6,200 5.3 0.88 2.3 8.5 0.2% 0.05
DeAndre
Carter
$5,100 5.2 0.96 1.7 7.9 0.5% 0.13
Chris
Moore
$5,100 5.0 0.97 2.5 7.5 0.1% 0.06
Ben
Skowronek
$5,300 5.0 0.96 2.1 8.1 0.3% 0.11

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Tyler
Higbee
$5,500 9.6 1.68 6.0 12.6 12.6% 0.85
T.J.
Hockenson
$7,000 9.3 1.34 5.5 13.3 16.8% 0.28
Dallas
Goedert
$6,100 9.0 1.42 5.2 12.9 14.7% 0.49
Zach
Ertz
$5,900 8.8 1.46 5.2 12.7 14.6% 0.53
Pat
Freiermuth
$5,800 7.8 1.36 4.3 11.6 9.7% 0.39
David
Njoku
$5,700 7.7 1.37 4.4 11.5 8.8% 0.38
George
Kittle
$6,500 7.5 1.12 3.6 11.0 8.2% 0.16
Gerald
Everett
$6,300 7.3 1.15 3.8 10.8 5.5% 0.12
Tyler
Conklin
$5,300 6.6 1.24 3.5 9.7 5.2% 0.27
Irv
Smith
Jr.
$4,700 6.3 1.35 3.2 9.9 3.6% 0.45
Dalton
Schultz
$4,800 6.3 1.29 2.6 9.6 4.5% 0.37
Logan
Thomas
$5,200 5.8 1.13 2.2 9.6 5.6% 0.27
Evan
Engram
$4,900 5.6 1.19 2.8 9.0 2.6% 0.28
O.J.
Howard
$4,500 5.5 1.16 1.7 8.7 2.2% 0.31
Cade
Otton
$4,100 5.2 1.29 2.4 8.6 2.6% 0.43
Cole
Kmet
$4,600 5.0 1.16 1.8 8.7 2.4% 0.30
Hunter
Henry
$4,500 4.3 0.90 1.0 7.5 1.4% 0.18
Mike
Gesicki
$5,000 4.3 0.88 1.0 7.6 1.4% 0.13
Austin
Hooper
$4,500 4.3 0.91 1.2 7.2 1.1% 0.14
Juwan
Johnson
$4,700 4.0 0.82 0.5 7.1 1.4% 0.13

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