3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Stefon Diggs Any Time Touchdown (-125)
That team total is the highest on the slate as the Bills find themselves as 14.0-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where the game total is set at 46.5 points. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the league, and with the scoring expectation this week, we want to look at some player props.
Immediately, we have to take a look at Stefon Diggs for an any time touchdown. Diggs is one of the absolute best receivers in the league and comes in with a slew of stats to back it up.
This season, Diggs is playing on 73.1% of the offensive snaps, running a route on 79.8% of drop backs, has a team-high 24.8% target share, a team-high 38.6% air yards share, and a team-high 29.6% red zone target share.
I know, none of this is breaking news. Josh Allen loves to target Diggs early and often while getting it to him in the red zone. All of this has led to Diggs totaling 37.86 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the best in the league among receivers, 0.95 Reception NEP per target, and an 83.87% success rate.
He is elite in each and every area and now gets to take on a Steelers' secondary that is struggling this season. Through four weeks, the Steelers have allowed the ninth-most (55) catches to wide receivers, the seventh-most (717) yards, and are tied for the third-most (5) touchdowns.
All of this combined checks every box we could possibly want when looking for a wideout's touchdown prop.
Amari Cooper Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Although the Browns aren't a team that passes the ball a ton, we should stay locked in with Cooper. The Browns come in with a 46.98% pass-play percentage, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Obviously, that's not great when it comes to looking at a receiving prop, but there's more to it than just that.
The matchup is a good one against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have allowed 646 receiving yards to wide receivers this season, good for 15th in the league. They couldn't be more average in the secondary, which is a good sign for Cooper.
Next, we see that Cooper leads the Browns in nearly every stat that's important. He's playing on 82.2% of the snaps and running a route on 90.9% of the drop backs. He's amassed a 25.2% target share, 11.5 average depth of target (aDOT), 38.9% air yards share, and 21.1% red zone target share.
Except for the snap rate, all of those are first or second on the Browns through four weeks. In short, the Browns don't pass the ball a ton, but when they do pass, it's going to Cooper a good portion of the time.
Cooper is coming off a very slow week with a single reception for nine yards. They could try to get him going early this week. He comes in projected for 57.04 receiving yards, hitting the over on this prop.
Kirk Cousins Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Quarterback pass attempts prop continue to be one of my favorite markets to attack.
I've said it before and I'll say it again -- passing attempts can be accurately projected for a number of reasons. Looking at a team and its play-calling tendencies, matchup, and potential game script can all lead to accurate passing attempt projections.
This week, we turn to Kirk Cousins at over 32.5 passing attempts versus the Chicago Bears. Through four weeks of the NFL season, the Vikings have a 64.96% pass-play percentage, which is the fifth-highest in the league. This has led to Cousins posting 38-plus passing attempts in three of the four games -- good for an average of 39.25 attempts per game.
The Vikings are passing the ball at a high clip this season, and that should continue this week. The Bears are allowing opponents to run 62.8 plays per game, which is 16th in the league. That's right at the league average, which should allow the Vikings to continue to flex their high passing rate at a normal volume.
Our projections have Cousins going for 36.09 passing attempts this week, putting him over at this line.