NFL

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 4

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Josh
Allen
$8,900 24.52.8019.130.849.8%2.00
Jalen
Hurts
$8,600 23.82.7217.429.343.4%1.65
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800 22.62.5116.428.438.2%1.06
Justin
Herbert
$8,000 19.12.4314.424.422.8%0.82
Marcus
Mariota
$7,300 18.32.5213.523.820.8%1.12
Kyler
Murray
$7,800 18.02.3112.922.616.5%0.58
Derek
Carr
$7,200 17.42.3912.122.015.8%0.77
Aaron
Rodgers
$7,400 17.42.2812.022.515.0%0.68
Jared
Goff
$7,600 17.32.2512.221.912.7%0.52
Geno
Smith
$6,600 16.82.5411.521.813.5%1.06
Daniel
Jones
$7,000 16.72.3611.722.014.1%0.76
Russell
Wilson
$7,100 16.42.2912.021.212.7%0.65
Jacoby
Brissett
$6,800 16.42.4811.921.913.3%0.95
Mitchell
Trubisky
$6,500 15.82.4711.121.411.6%0.91
Baker
Mayfield
$6,600 15.52.3410.320.39.8%0.69
Cooper
Rush
$6,400 15.12.3710.619.98.4%0.77
Carson
Wentz
$6,900 14.92.2110.220.39.0%0.55
Matt
Ryan
$6,700 14.92.249.819.88.2%0.57
Justin
Fields
$6,700 14.72.199.419.78.9%0.54
Trevor
Lawrence
$7,500 14.41.939.419.37.0%0.23
Davis
Mills
$6,400 14.32.3210.119.48.1%0.68
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,800 14.22.099.719.27.5%0.44
Zach
Wilson
$6,500 13.92.078.718.55.4%0.43
Brian
Hoyer
$6,300 11.31.786.515.72.2%0.23

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Jonathan
Taylor
$8,700 18.52.1612.924.845.5%2.66
Christian
McCaffrey
$8,800 18.42.0712.623.941.4%2.28
Saquon
Barkley
$8,100 17.62.2212.323.339.6%2.95
Austin
Ekeler
$8,400 15.51.9210.321.129.3%1.37
Derrick
Henry
$8,600 15.41.8310.221.028.7%1.20
Jamaal
Williams
$7,400 15.12.0610.220.527.9%2.03
Najee
Harris
$7,000 14.52.059.419.322.4%1.96
Nick
Chubb
$9,200 14.51.539.319.322.0%0.54
Khalil
Herbert
$7,200 14.42.019.419.724.2%1.82
Aaron
Jones
$7,300 13.91.949.218.720.2%1.48
Cordarrelle
Patterson
$7,600 13.81.888.718.820.1%1.20
Josh
Jacobs
$6,500 13.62.088.618.519.4%1.90
Javonte
Williams
$6,900 12.81.897.718.217.4%1.28
A.J.
Dillon
$6,500 12.81.998.417.214.8%1.66
James
Conner
$6,800 12.41.847.717.415.5%1.26
Dameon
Pierce
$6,800 11.91.727.116.212.0%0.91
Antonio
Gibson
$6,600 11.81.797.216.713.5%1.11
Miles
Sanders
$6,600 11.71.776.816.712.2%1.02
Ezekiel
Elliott
$6,400 11.61.807.016.012.2%1.18
James
Robinson
$7,800 11.31.426.415.89.2%0.40
Rashaad
Penny
$6,700 10.61.536.015.47.5%0.67
Devin
Singletary
$6,200 10.01.625.314.47.3%0.75
Breece
Hall
$6,300 9.91.635.615.48.9%0.82
Tony
Pollard
$6,000 9.91.695.514.86.8%0.85
Kareem
Hunt
$6,100 9.81.545.013.96.2%0.66
Michael
Carter
$5,700 9.81.715.514.26.2%0.93
Rhamondre
Stevenson
$5,900 9.71.705.713.94.6%0.83
Damien
Harris
$6,200 9.31.535.113.86.1%0.62
Melvin
Gordon
$6,500 9.21.434.913.95.9%0.51
J.K.
Dobbins
$5,800 9.01.524.613.04.9%0.61
Rex
Burkhead
$5,100 7.71.473.011.82.7%0.63
Travis
Etienne
$5,700 7.71.273.112.13.4%0.44
Craig
Reynolds
$5,100 7.41.382.711.52.1%0.56
J.D.
McKissic
$5,300 7.11.372.911.42.0%0.49
Nyheim
Hines
$5,100 6.61.322.411.02.2%0.47
Kenneth
Walker
III
$5,200 6.31.172.310.31.2%0.33
Kenneth
Gainwell
$5,000 5.91.081.19.40.6%0.29
Justice
Hill
$5,400 5.00.850.98.50.2%0.14
Tyler
Allgeier
$4,800 5.01.211.59.30.4%0.32

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Stefon
Diggs
$8,700 16.21.8310.920.841.1%1.24
Davante
Adams
$7,900 16.02.0111.120.540.1%1.99
A.J.
Brown
$8,300 13.51.678.818.429.8%0.74
Diontae
Johnson
$7,000 13.01.848.317.424.6%1.25
D.K.
Metcalf
$7,100 12.71.807.317.625.8%1.03
CeeDee
Lamb
$6,800 12.51.887.616.620.6%1.15
Mike
Williams
$7,200 12.51.758.017.022.2%0.95
Brandin
Cooks
$6,400 12.31.968.017.123.3%1.61
Courtland
Sutton
$6,800 12.11.786.817.123.5%1.05
Michael
Pittman
Jr.
$7,500 12.01.617.416.319.4%0.64
Tyler
Lockett
$6,900 12.01.787.117.625.3%1.08
Drake
London
$6,300 11.91.958.016.118.3%1.53
Amari
Cooper
$7,500 11.91.557.016.319.6%0.60
Marquise
Brown
$7,700 11.71.536.916.118.5%0.48
D.J.
Moore
$6,100 11.01.806.815.315.5%1.09
Christian
Kirk
$7,600 11.01.466.415.617.5%0.49
DeVonta
Smith
$6,900 10.91.576.515.616.6%0.69
Josh
Reynolds
$5,900 10.61.795.715.516.9%1.03
Curtis
Samuel
$6,200 10.51.707.913.23.2%0.77
Jerry
Jeudy
$6,500 10.31.616.514.613.0%0.73
Rashod
Bateman
$6,600 9.71.506.013.710.3%0.53
Gabriel
Davis
$6,500 9.51.485.214.311.4%0.55
Mack
Hollins
$5,800 9.51.564.713.810.1%0.74
Chase
Claypool
$5,700 9.21.665.513.47.2%0.77
Josh
Palmer
$5,800 9.11.595.712.55.7%0.65
Richie
James
$5,500 9.11.615.212.55.3%0.69
Garrett
Wilson
$6,100 8.91.485.212.86.8%0.49
Terry
McLaurin
$6,700 8.61.274.113.38.3%0.34
Romeo
Doubs
$5,900 8.51.465.311.82.6%0.44
Allen
Lazard
$6,000 8.41.354.712.04.8%0.37
Robbie
Anderson
$5,700 8.21.384.412.04.5%0.49
Robert
Woods
$5,800 8.21.434.411.72.9%0.37
Darnell
Mooney
$5,800 8.21.393.912.17.1%0.46
Elijah
Moore
$5,500 8.01.444.012.16.4%0.55
Kalif
Raymond
$4,900 7.91.634.211.82.9%0.80
DeVante
Parker
$5,700 7.91.293.211.86.6%0.41
Zay
Jones
$5,900 7.91.353.512.04.6%0.42
Treylon
Burks
$5,700 7.51.333.711.63.4%0.41
Nico
Collins
$5,300 7.51.404.111.23.4%0.49
Donovan
Peoples-Jones
$5,400 7.31.343.211.44.4%0.43
Isaiah
McKenzie
$5,900 7.11.214.210.01.0%0.15
Marvin
Jones
$5,400 7.11.333.210.94.0%0.41
Greg
Dortch
$5,300 7.11.354.39.61.2%0.23
Jahan
Dotson
$5,700 6.91.253.311.34.1%0.34
Rondale
Moore
$5,000 6.81.354.69.00.0%0.22
DeAndre
Carter
$5,200 6.41.213.09.41.6%0.27
David
Sills
V
$5,200 6.01.162.89.50.8%0.22
Nelson
Agholor
$5,600 6.01.122.010.03.6%0.23
Corey
Davis
$5,600 5.91.051.99.81.7%0.18
Quintez
Cephus
$4,600 5.71.212.38.90.5%0.33
Noah
Brown
$5,600 5.61.072.68.90.5%0.12
George
Pickens
$5,100 5.61.162.59.41.2%0.24
Devin
Duvernay
$5,700 5.51.012.78.20.0%0.04
Equanimeous
St.
Brown
$5,400 5.30.932.08.60.6%0.14
Kenny
Golladay
$5,500 5.30.901.68.50.5%0.13
Michael
Gallup
$6,000 5.30.912.18.80.4%0.07
Olamide
Zaccheaus
$5,300 5.20.942.08.10.1%0.10
Kyle
Philips
$5,000 5.11.022.28.20.4%0.15
Alec
Pierce
$5,100 5.01.052.08.10.7%0.15
Christian
Watson
$5,300 5.00.971.98.10.1%0.09

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15.0+
%
Boom/
Bust
Mark
Andrews
$8,400 13.91.749.219.948.5%0.93
Darren
Waller
$6,500 10.81.646.015.627.6%0.81
T.J.
Hockenson
$5,400 10.32.026.914.320.1%1.63
Kyle
Pitts
$6,100 10.31.685.415.627.9%0.92
Dallas
Goedert
$6,200 8.21.334.612.111.4%0.34
Zach
Ertz
$5,500 8.21.444.011.912.2%0.53
Pat
Freiermuth
$5,600 8.11.414.611.37.5%0.43
Gerald
Everett
$5,500 8.01.444.810.98.4%0.44
David
Njoku
$5,700 7.61.343.711.47.9%0.37
Dalton
Schultz
$5,300 7.11.243.410.67.3%0.37
Robert
Tonyan
$4,900 7.01.353.59.94.7%0.41
Dawson
Knox
$5,000 6.71.303.49.74.7%0.37
Tyler
Conklin
$5,400 5.91.052.68.72.0%0.14
Evan
Engram
$5,000 5.81.202.99.12.4%0.26
Noah
Fant
$4,800 5.41.102.28.52.6%0.24
Cole
Kmet
$4,700 5.11.151.79.02.9%0.31
Logan
Thomas
$5,100 5.00.941.58.72.4%0.17
Albert
Okwuegbunam
$4,900 4.91.002.27.70.8%0.14
Isaiah
Likely
$4,300 4.51.111.77.71.2%0.24
Pharaoh
Brown
$4,600 4.51.021.58.01.2%0.17
Jonnu
Smith
$4,600 4.40.941.17.60.9%0.15
Austin
Hooper
$4,600 4.10.951.37.30.6%0.13
Ian
Thomas
$4,500 4.00.890.87.40.9%0.16