NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 4
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | $8,900 | 24.5 | 2.80 | 19.1 | 30.8 | 49.8% | 2.00 |
Jalen Hurts | $8,600 | 23.8 | 2.72 | 17.4 | 29.3 | 43.4% | 1.65 |
Lamar Jackson | $8,800 | 22.6 | 2.51 | 16.4 | 28.4 | 38.2% | 1.06 |
Justin Herbert | $8,000 | 19.1 | 2.43 | 14.4 | 24.4 | 22.8% | 0.82 |
Marcus Mariota | $7,300 | 18.3 | 2.52 | 13.5 | 23.8 | 20.8% | 1.12 |
Kyler Murray | $7,800 | 18.0 | 2.31 | 12.9 | 22.6 | 16.5% | 0.58 |
Derek Carr | $7,200 | 17.4 | 2.39 | 12.1 | 22.0 | 15.8% | 0.77 |
Aaron Rodgers | $7,400 | 17.4 | 2.28 | 12.0 | 22.5 | 15.0% | 0.68 |
Jared Goff | $7,600 | 17.3 | 2.25 | 12.2 | 21.9 | 12.7% | 0.52 |
Geno Smith | $6,600 | 16.8 | 2.54 | 11.5 | 21.8 | 13.5% | 1.06 |
Daniel Jones | $7,000 | 16.7 | 2.36 | 11.7 | 22.0 | 14.1% | 0.76 |
Russell Wilson | $7,100 | 16.4 | 2.29 | 12.0 | 21.2 | 12.7% | 0.65 |
Jacoby Brissett | $6,800 | 16.4 | 2.48 | 11.9 | 21.9 | 13.3% | 0.95 |
Mitchell Trubisky | $6,500 | 15.8 | 2.47 | 11.1 | 21.4 | 11.6% | 0.91 |
Baker Mayfield | $6,600 | 15.5 | 2.34 | 10.3 | 20.3 | 9.8% | 0.69 |
Cooper Rush | $6,400 | 15.1 | 2.37 | 10.6 | 19.9 | 8.4% | 0.77 |
Carson Wentz | $6,900 | 14.9 | 2.21 | 10.2 | 20.3 | 9.0% | 0.55 |
Matt Ryan | $6,700 | 14.9 | 2.24 | 9.8 | 19.8 | 8.2% | 0.57 |
Justin Fields | $6,700 | 14.7 | 2.19 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 8.9% | 0.54 |
Trevor Lawrence | $7,500 | 14.4 | 1.93 | 9.4 | 19.3 | 7.0% | 0.23 |
Davis Mills | $6,400 | 14.3 | 2.32 | 10.1 | 19.4 | 8.1% | 0.68 |
Ryan Tannehill | $6,800 | 14.2 | 2.09 | 9.7 | 19.2 | 7.5% | 0.44 |
Zach Wilson | $6,500 | 13.9 | 2.07 | 8.7 | 18.5 | 5.4% | 0.43 |
Brian Hoyer | $6,300 | 11.3 | 1.78 | 6.5 | 15.7 | 2.2% | 0.23 |
Running Back
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Taylor | $8,700 | 18.5 | 2.16 | 12.9 | 24.8 | 45.5% | 2.66 |
Christian McCaffrey | $8,800 | 18.4 | 2.07 | 12.6 | 23.9 | 41.4% | 2.28 |
Saquon Barkley | $8,100 | 17.6 | 2.22 | 12.3 | 23.3 | 39.6% | 2.95 |
Austin Ekeler | $8,400 | 15.5 | 1.92 | 10.3 | 21.1 | 29.3% | 1.37 |
Derrick Henry | $8,600 | 15.4 | 1.83 | 10.2 | 21.0 | 28.7% | 1.20 |
Jamaal Williams | $7,400 | 15.1 | 2.06 | 10.2 | 20.5 | 27.9% | 2.03 |
Najee Harris | $7,000 | 14.5 | 2.05 | 9.4 | 19.3 | 22.4% | 1.96 |
Nick Chubb | $9,200 | 14.5 | 1.53 | 9.3 | 19.3 | 22.0% | 0.54 |
Khalil Herbert | $7,200 | 14.4 | 2.01 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 24.2% | 1.82 |
Aaron Jones | $7,300 | 13.9 | 1.94 | 9.2 | 18.7 | 20.2% | 1.48 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,600 | 13.8 | 1.88 | 8.7 | 18.8 | 20.1% | 1.20 |
Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 13.6 | 2.08 | 8.6 | 18.5 | 19.4% | 1.90 |
Javonte Williams | $6,900 | 12.8 | 1.89 | 7.7 | 18.2 | 17.4% | 1.28 |
A.J. Dillon | $6,500 | 12.8 | 1.99 | 8.4 | 17.2 | 14.8% | 1.66 |
James Conner | $6,800 | 12.4 | 1.84 | 7.7 | 17.4 | 15.5% | 1.26 |
Dameon Pierce | $6,800 | 11.9 | 1.72 | 7.1 | 16.2 | 12.0% | 0.91 |
Antonio Gibson | $6,600 | 11.8 | 1.79 | 7.2 | 16.7 | 13.5% | 1.11 |
Miles Sanders | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.77 | 6.8 | 16.7 | 12.2% | 1.02 |
Ezekiel Elliott | $6,400 | 11.6 | 1.80 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 12.2% | 1.18 |
James Robinson | $7,800 | 11.3 | 1.42 | 6.4 | 15.8 | 9.2% | 0.40 |
Rashaad Penny | $6,700 | 10.6 | 1.53 | 6.0 | 15.4 | 7.5% | 0.67 |
Devin Singletary | $6,200 | 10.0 | 1.62 | 5.3 | 14.4 | 7.3% | 0.75 |
Breece Hall | $6,300 | 9.9 | 1.63 | 5.6 | 15.4 | 8.9% | 0.82 |
Tony Pollard | $6,000 | 9.9 | 1.69 | 5.5 | 14.8 | 6.8% | 0.85 |
Kareem Hunt | $6,100 | 9.8 | 1.54 | 5.0 | 13.9 | 6.2% | 0.66 |
Michael Carter | $5,700 | 9.8 | 1.71 | 5.5 | 14.2 | 6.2% | 0.93 |
Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,900 | 9.7 | 1.70 | 5.7 | 13.9 | 4.6% | 0.83 |
Damien Harris | $6,200 | 9.3 | 1.53 | 5.1 | 13.8 | 6.1% | 0.62 |
Melvin Gordon | $6,500 | 9.2 | 1.43 | 4.9 | 13.9 | 5.9% | 0.51 |
J.K. Dobbins | $5,800 | 9.0 | 1.52 | 4.6 | 13.0 | 4.9% | 0.61 |
Rex Burkhead | $5,100 | 7.7 | 1.47 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 2.7% | 0.63 |
Travis Etienne | $5,700 | 7.7 | 1.27 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 3.4% | 0.44 |
Craig Reynolds | $5,100 | 7.4 | 1.38 | 2.7 | 11.5 | 2.1% | 0.56 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.37 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 2.0% | 0.49 |
Nyheim Hines | $5,100 | 6.6 | 1.32 | 2.4 | 11.0 | 2.2% | 0.47 |
Kenneth Walker III | $5,200 | 6.3 | 1.17 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 1.2% | 0.33 |
Kenneth Gainwell | $5,000 | 5.9 | 1.08 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 0.6% | 0.29 |
Justice Hill | $5,400 | 5.0 | 0.85 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 0.2% | 0.14 |
Tyler Allgeier | $4,800 | 5.0 | 1.21 | 1.5 | 9.3 | 0.4% | 0.32 |
Wide Receiver
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stefon Diggs | $8,700 | 16.2 | 1.83 | 10.9 | 20.8 | 41.1% | 1.24 |
Davante Adams | $7,900 | 16.0 | 2.01 | 11.1 | 20.5 | 40.1% | 1.99 |
A.J. Brown | $8,300 | 13.5 | 1.67 | 8.8 | 18.4 | 29.8% | 0.74 |
Diontae Johnson | $7,000 | 13.0 | 1.84 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 24.6% | 1.25 |
D.K. Metcalf | $7,100 | 12.7 | 1.80 | 7.3 | 17.6 | 25.8% | 1.03 |
CeeDee Lamb | $6,800 | 12.5 | 1.88 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 20.6% | 1.15 |
Mike Williams | $7,200 | 12.5 | 1.75 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 22.2% | 0.95 |
Brandin Cooks | $6,400 | 12.3 | 1.96 | 8.0 | 17.1 | 23.3% | 1.61 |
Courtland Sutton | $6,800 | 12.1 | 1.78 | 6.8 | 17.1 | 23.5% | 1.05 |
Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,500 | 12.0 | 1.61 | 7.4 | 16.3 | 19.4% | 0.64 |
Tyler Lockett | $6,900 | 12.0 | 1.78 | 7.1 | 17.6 | 25.3% | 1.08 |
Drake London | $6,300 | 11.9 | 1.95 | 8.0 | 16.1 | 18.3% | 1.53 |
Amari Cooper | $7,500 | 11.9 | 1.55 | 7.0 | 16.3 | 19.6% | 0.60 |
Marquise Brown | $7,700 | 11.7 | 1.53 | 6.9 | 16.1 | 18.5% | 0.48 |
D.J. Moore | $6,100 | 11.0 | 1.80 | 6.8 | 15.3 | 15.5% | 1.09 |
Christian Kirk | $7,600 | 11.0 | 1.46 | 6.4 | 15.6 | 17.5% | 0.49 |
DeVonta Smith | $6,900 | 10.9 | 1.57 | 6.5 | 15.6 | 16.6% | 0.69 |
Josh Reynolds | $5,900 | 10.6 | 1.79 | 5.7 | 15.5 | 16.9% | 1.03 |
Curtis Samuel | $6,200 | 10.5 | 1.70 | 7.9 | 13.2 | 3.2% | 0.77 |
Jerry Jeudy | $6,500 | 10.3 | 1.61 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 13.0% | 0.73 |
Rashod Bateman | $6,600 | 9.7 | 1.50 | 6.0 | 13.7 | 10.3% | 0.53 |
Gabriel Davis | $6,500 | 9.5 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 14.3 | 11.4% | 0.55 |
Mack Hollins | $5,800 | 9.5 | 1.56 | 4.7 | 13.8 | 10.1% | 0.74 |
Chase Claypool | $5,700 | 9.2 | 1.66 | 5.5 | 13.4 | 7.2% | 0.77 |
Josh Palmer | $5,800 | 9.1 | 1.59 | 5.7 | 12.5 | 5.7% | 0.65 |
Richie James | $5,500 | 9.1 | 1.61 | 5.2 | 12.5 | 5.3% | 0.69 |
Garrett Wilson | $6,100 | 8.9 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 6.8% | 0.49 |
Terry McLaurin | $6,700 | 8.6 | 1.27 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 8.3% | 0.34 |
Romeo Doubs | $5,900 | 8.5 | 1.46 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 2.6% | 0.44 |
Allen Lazard | $6,000 | 8.4 | 1.35 | 4.7 | 12.0 | 4.8% | 0.37 |
Robbie Anderson | $5,700 | 8.2 | 1.38 | 4.4 | 12.0 | 4.5% | 0.49 |
Robert Woods | $5,800 | 8.2 | 1.43 | 4.4 | 11.7 | 2.9% | 0.37 |
Darnell Mooney | $5,800 | 8.2 | 1.39 | 3.9 | 12.1 | 7.1% | 0.46 |
Elijah Moore | $5,500 | 8.0 | 1.44 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 6.4% | 0.55 |
Kalif Raymond | $4,900 | 7.9 | 1.63 | 4.2 | 11.8 | 2.9% | 0.80 |
DeVante Parker | $5,700 | 7.9 | 1.29 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 6.6% | 0.41 |
Zay Jones | $5,900 | 7.9 | 1.35 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 4.6% | 0.42 |
Treylon Burks | $5,700 | 7.5 | 1.33 | 3.7 | 11.6 | 3.4% | 0.41 |
Nico Collins | $5,300 | 7.5 | 1.40 | 4.1 | 11.2 | 3.4% | 0.49 |
Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,400 | 7.3 | 1.34 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 4.4% | 0.43 |
Isaiah McKenzie | $5,900 | 7.1 | 1.21 | 4.2 | 10.0 | 1.0% | 0.15 |
Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 7.1 | 1.33 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 4.0% | 0.41 |
Greg Dortch | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.35 | 4.3 | 9.6 | 1.2% | 0.23 |
Jahan Dotson | $5,700 | 6.9 | 1.25 | 3.3 | 11.3 | 4.1% | 0.34 |
Rondale Moore | $5,000 | 6.8 | 1.35 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.22 |
DeAndre Carter | $5,200 | 6.4 | 1.21 | 3.0 | 9.4 | 1.6% | 0.27 |
David Sills V | $5,200 | 6.0 | 1.16 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 0.8% | 0.22 |
Nelson Agholor | $5,600 | 6.0 | 1.12 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 3.6% | 0.23 |
Corey Davis | $5,600 | 5.9 | 1.05 | 1.9 | 9.8 | 1.7% | 0.18 |
Quintez Cephus | $4,600 | 5.7 | 1.21 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 0.5% | 0.33 |
Noah Brown | $5,600 | 5.6 | 1.07 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 0.5% | 0.12 |
George Pickens | $5,100 | 5.6 | 1.16 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 1.2% | 0.24 |
Devin Duvernay | $5,700 | 5.5 | 1.01 | 2.7 | 8.2 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
Equanimeous St. Brown | $5,400 | 5.3 | 0.93 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 0.6% | 0.14 |
Kenny Golladay | $5,500 | 5.3 | 0.90 | 1.6 | 8.5 | 0.5% | 0.13 |
Michael Gallup | $6,000 | 5.3 | 0.91 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 0.4% | 0.07 |
Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,300 | 5.2 | 0.94 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.10 |
Kyle Philips | $5,000 | 5.1 | 1.02 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 0.4% | 0.15 |
Alec Pierce | $5,100 | 5.0 | 1.05 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.7% | 0.15 |
Christian Watson | $5,300 | 5.0 | 0.97 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
Tight End
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15.0+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Andrews | $8,400 | 13.9 | 1.74 | 9.2 | 19.9 | 48.5% | 0.93 |
Darren Waller | $6,500 | 10.8 | 1.64 | 6.0 | 15.6 | 27.6% | 0.81 |
T.J. Hockenson | $5,400 | 10.3 | 2.02 | 6.9 | 14.3 | 20.1% | 1.63 |
Kyle Pitts | $6,100 | 10.3 | 1.68 | 5.4 | 15.6 | 27.9% | 0.92 |
Dallas Goedert | $6,200 | 8.2 | 1.33 | 4.6 | 12.1 | 11.4% | 0.34 |
Zach Ertz | $5,500 | 8.2 | 1.44 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 12.2% | 0.53 |
Pat Freiermuth | $5,600 | 8.1 | 1.41 | 4.6 | 11.3 | 7.5% | 0.43 |
Gerald Everett | $5,500 | 8.0 | 1.44 | 4.8 | 10.9 | 8.4% | 0.44 |
David Njoku | $5,700 | 7.6 | 1.34 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 7.9% | 0.37 |
Dalton Schultz | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.24 | 3.4 | 10.6 | 7.3% | 0.37 |
Robert Tonyan | $4,900 | 7.0 | 1.35 | 3.5 | 9.9 | 4.7% | 0.41 |
Dawson Knox | $5,000 | 6.7 | 1.30 | 3.4 | 9.7 | 4.7% | 0.37 |
Tyler Conklin | $5,400 | 5.9 | 1.05 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 2.0% | 0.14 |
Evan Engram | $5,000 | 5.8 | 1.20 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 2.4% | 0.26 |
Noah Fant | $4,800 | 5.4 | 1.10 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 2.6% | 0.24 |
Cole Kmet | $4,700 | 5.1 | 1.15 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 2.9% | 0.31 |
Logan Thomas | $5,100 | 5.0 | 0.94 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 2.4% | 0.17 |
Albert Okwuegbunam | $4,900 | 4.9 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 0.8% | 0.14 |
Isaiah Likely | $4,300 | 4.5 | 1.11 | 1.7 | 7.7 | 1.2% | 0.24 |
Pharaoh Brown | $4,600 | 4.5 | 1.02 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 1.2% | 0.17 |
Jonnu Smith | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.94 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 0.9% | 0.15 |
Austin Hooper | $4,600 | 4.1 | 0.95 | 1.3 | 7.3 | 0.6% | 0.13 |
Ian Thomas | $4,500 | 4.0 | 0.89 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 0.9% | 0.16 |