4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 4
Stacks are usually the backbone of the best FanDuel lineups, especially in tournaments. Brandon Gdula's piece examining hit rates and correlation for stacks is a must-read article whether you're already familiar with stacking or new to the concept.
This piece will lay out my favorite weekly stacks. So, read on to see the stacks I'm firing up this week.
Sometimes, an obvious stack is correct. The Buffalo Bills have the highest implied total (27.00) on FanDuel's main slate in Week 4. That's an excellent starting point. The matchup is sweet, too. According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Baltimore Ravens have the 10th-worst pass defense.
However, Baltimore is also ranked as the fifth-best offense, so they can force Buffalo to keep its foot on the accelerator and turn this AFC battle into a fantasy bonanza. And, of course, Allen and Diggs have been sensational this season.
Allen leads the NFL in passing yards per game (338.0). He's tossed nine touchdowns and averaged 37.7 rushing yards per game while scampering for one touchdown on the ground. As a result, Allen is the highest-projected player with the highest value score -- a measure of points per $1,000 of salary -- among all players on this week's main slate, according to our numbers.
Diggs has also been a stud this year. Buffalo's star wideout is leading the NFL in receiving yards per game (114.7) and touchdown receptions (four) while ranking second in catches per game (9.0). Our algorithm is enamored with him, as well, projecting Diggs to lead wide receivers in scoring (with the third-highest value score).
Finally, there's plenty of room for a second receiver to ball out in Buffalo's pass-happy offense. Davis doesn't need much volume to provide value as a vertical weapon against a defense getting torched on deep balls, as I highlighted when discussing Davis earlier this week.
Andrews or Likely make sense as a bring-back play in what looks like the best game to zero in on for Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons-Cleveland Browns
London is thriving in his rookie campaign. He's seamlessly blended volume and efficiency. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), London has the fifth-highest target share (32.9 percent). Out of the 81 receivers targeted at least 10 times, London is also 24th Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target (0.82).
However, that's not the only advanced efficiency metric London has shined in. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), London is seventh among receivers with 2.74 yards per route run (Y/RR).
All of London's advanced-metric greatness has resulted in 5.3 receptions and 71.3 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns. In short, the rookie has been outstanding.
Conversely, Chubb has balled out for the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's elite running back is first in rushing yards per game (113.7) and tied for first in touchdown rushes (four). Chubb has also been an advanced-metrics darling. According to PFF, he's the highest-graded runner and the leader in missed tackles forced (26), with 10 more than the next-closest back.
Finally, the matchup is dreamy, and the game script could be good, too. The Atlanta Falcons are the sixth-worst run defense in our metrics, and the Browns are 1.5-point favorites.
This game has shootout potential with a 47.5-point total and that tight spread.
The Seattle Seahawks ran more plays last week, ramping up the volume, which is great news for their fantasy-relevant players. Penny fits the bill in a tasty matchup as Seattle's lead back.
Our metrics rank the Detroit Lions dead last in rush defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions have played at the third-fastest situation-neutral pace, so they can help encourage the Seahawks to keep their foot pressed down on the accelerator.
Sadly, Seattle's insistence on using three running backs has been annoying. However, Penny has pulled away from his peers -- to an extent. He played 61.21 percent of Seattle's snaps this season and 68.12 percent of the team's snaps in Week 3. In addition, Penny has paced the position in carries and routes, even after Kenneth Walker III debuted in Week 2. In two games with Walker active, Penny has handled 20 of the backfield's 33 rushing attempts and 36 of 64 routes for the running backs, per PFF.
The game script might be good for Penny and the defense, too. Unfortunately, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been ruled out, and D'Andre Swift is likely out, as well. That dings the overall shootout potential as the Detroit Lions might struggle offensively without two of their most dynamic playmakers.
On the flip side, the absence of integral weapons for Detroit is a boon for Seattle's defensive outlook, and they're an enticing high-value stacking partner with Penny.
Indianapolis Colts-Tennesse Titans
Pierce has played two games this year, suiting up in Week 1 and Week 3, sandwiched around a missed game with a concussion. The speedy rookie wideout is coming off his most productive game in his young career, reeling in three receptions for 61 yards on five targets.
His playing time (48.43 percent snap rate) has left a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, according to PFF, he's run the fourth-most routes (56) in the two games he's played and had a lid-lifter average depth of target (13.9-yard aDOT). Pierce was used as a vertical weapon in college, too. Per PFF, he had a 17.1-yard aDOT in his final collegiate season (2021) and a 16.8-yard aDOT in his college career.
Pierce's downfield usage means he can come good on one or two chunk plays, and his matchup is excellent. The Titans have been ripped deep.Tennessee has allowed 12 completions on 21 pass attempts traveling at least 15 air yards for 392 yards and two touchdowns.
After three unproductive weeks from Parris Campbell, it's reasonable to refer to Pierce as Indy's number-two wideout, and Tennessee has had all sorts of trouble with secondary receivers. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (93.0) to a team's second-best wide receiver.
Burks can have the biggest game of his young career this week, too. First, the matchup is good. The Colts have the eighth-worst pass defense by our numbers. Meanwhile, Burks' playing time has climbed every week. Yes, Kyle Philips was out last week. However, Burks played more than his fellow rookie in Week 2. In Week 3, Burks' 67.27 percent snap share was the second-highest among Tennessee's wide receivers.
The rookie wide receiver has also run the second-most routes (44) in the last two weeks, one fewer than Robert Woods' 45 routes. Unfortunately, Burks has had only five receptions for 60 scoreless yards on eight targets across Week 2 and Week 3. Still, the underlying information was encouraging. And Woods hasn't been a world-beater, so there might be a chance for Burks to ascend within the offense.
There's a significant risk for Pierce and Burks both busting this week. They're definitely a better fit for tournaments. Still, speculating and rostering rookies during a breakout performance instead of point chasing in the subsequent weeks following it can pay off handsomely in GPPs.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.