Week 4 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each and every week throughout the NFL season, the experts at numberFire will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of their picks to provide context for their reasoning.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.

Brandon Gdula, Senior Managing Editor

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-115)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons Over 47.5 (-114)

Player Prop: Devin Singletary Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Singletary is playing in a shootout game, and he is coming off an 11-target outing. In that game, he had an 88% first-half snap rate. So far on the season, he has a 45% route rate for this high-powered offense, and Baltimore hasn't been particularly stout at stopping receiving backs yet this season.

Jim Sannes, Senior Writer and Analyst

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-115)

Total: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions Under 48.5 (-115)

I realize the Lions have played shootout-friendly football this year, but Week 4 could be very different. Not only is the Lions' offense super banged up, but they're facing the Seahawks. That's not exactly a world-beating offense you expect to light up the scoreboard. The Lions will be involved in high-scoring games plenty this season; I'm not comfortable saying Sunday will be one of them.

Player Prop: Courtland Sutton Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Editor

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-115)

Total: Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 45.5 (-115)

This is one of the top bets of the week, per our model. The Jags and Eagles are both in the top seven in situation-neutral pace, and each offense is playing well right now. This has the makings of a high-scoring game, and the total isn't that high. Our projections see these two combining for 52.1 points -- well over the 45.5-point total.

Player Prop: Justin Jefferson Under 86.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: New England Patriots +9.5 (-112)

Total: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders Under 45.5 (-110)

Not only does this game feature two offenses that have underwhelmed to this point, but this game rates as the second-worst of the entire week in terms of pace, per our Brandon Gdula. Denver's offense has scored just three touchdowns all season, while their defense has been stingy, ranking second overall in numberFire's metrics thus far. Over the first three weeks, Broncos games have totaled 33, 25, and 21 points.

Player Prop: Devin Singletary Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (-110)

Total: Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 45.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-122)

Buffalo's offense has a 66.2% pass play percentage, which is the sixth-highest in the league, and is averaging 71 offensive plays per game. The Ravens' defense allows their opponents to average 47.0 pass attempts per game, which is the most in the NFL. A 51.0-point over/under and close 3.0-point spread should lead to back-and-forth action and plenty of passing attempts for Allen.

Austin Swaim, Editor

Side: New York Jets +3 (-104)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons Over 47.5 (-114)

Player Prop: James Robinson Any Time Touchdown (+120)

There's been one way to move the ball on the Philadelphia Eagles' stellar defense -- on the ground. They're actually the second-worst rushing defense, per our numbers, but they've barely trailed in 2022, so it hasn't been noticed. The red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to score some points in this one, and Robinson should get a bulk of the quality opportunities in close. He's handled 45.3% of Jacksonville's red-zone carries so far. I think these odds are far longer than they'll be in most contests this season.