5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 4
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projection tool. Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players in FanDuel's player pool. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, numberFire patrons can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($7,300)
Marcus Mariota hasn't been perfect, but he's done some fantasy-friendly things.
First, according to StatHead, he's one of seven quarterbacks averaging more than 30 rushing yards per game (30.7). Yes, most of his damage on the ground was in the opener, rumbling for 72 yards. However, he's also scored a rushing touchdown in two games. In the contest where Mariota failed to score on the ground, he passed for two touchdowns.
Mariota has been efficient through the air in at least one metric. According to Pro Football Reference, he's 12th among qualified quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.09 ANY/A). Mariota has two talented pass-catching options and an explosive running back who can do damage in the passing game when called upon. Thus, he has weapons, and the Atlanta Falcons have a fantasy-friendly implied total of 23.5 points versus the Cleveland Browns in a game with a solid 47.5-point over/under.
Frankly, I prefer to spend the requisite cap space for Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in most of my lineups in Week 3. Still, Mariota's rushing ability, coupled with his big-play weapons in the passing game, makes him an attractive value swerve in tournaments.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets ($6,300)
The New York Jets are only 3.0-point underdogs and have a tasty matchup for their running game. According to the numberFire team power rankings, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the seventh-worst rush defense. Gang Green's offense should make hay on the ground in a game that will likely remain in a neutral game script.
Thus, Breece Hall might kick the door down this week. The supremely talented rookie running back played a season-high 51.32 percent of New York's snaps in Week 3, overtaking Michael Carter in snap share for the first time this year. Is the tide shifting in Hall's favor? Maybe.
It's encouraging Hall didn't merely play more snaps than Carter last week, he also held a few more notable advantages. First, he was more efficient, rushing for 39 yards on eight carries versus 39 yards on 11 attempts for Carter. Second, Hall dominated the second-year running back in passing-game usage. Hall led the Jets with 11 targets, hauling in six receptions for 53 yards. Meanwhile, Carter had only two targets, resulting in one reception for seven yards. Yet, it gets better. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hall ran 27 routes, compared to just 19 for Carter.
If Hall maintains his role, he's an excellent option against the Steelers this week. If he commands a slightly larger share of the backfield workload in his fourth professional contest, Hall can explode.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($6,500)
Sadly, Gabriel Davis was out in Week 2 with an ankle injury. However, he wasn't eased back into the mix in Week 3. According to PFF, he played 71 passing snaps and ran 70 routes on Allen's 73 dropbacks in Week 3. The Buffalo Bills had issues with cramping in Miami, so the playing time should be taken with a grain of salt for many of their players. Regardless, Davis was a playing-time monster.
Davis didn't blow up in the box score, but he hauled in three of six targets for 37 yards. Davis also had a would-be 11-yard touchdown reception punched out on an end-zone target. It wasn't a drop as Keion Crossen punched the ball out. Still, it was a near score.
Davis had a stellar opener, hauling in four receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown on five targets. The big-play wideout hasn't been a target hog, but his usage is boom-week friendly. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Davis's 13.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is the 21st-deepest among wideouts and tight ends targeted at least 10 times. He's sixth out of 81 receivers targeted at least 10 times in 2022 with 1.14 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target.
Davis has a mouthwatering matchup for an explosive performance this week. The Baltimore Ravens are the 10th-worst pass defense by our metrics. Further, they've been torched on deep passes. Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones have combined to complete 17 of 26 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 512 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens.
This matchup looks tailor-made for Davis.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($6,300)
This isn't my weekly stacking piece, but Mariota and Drake London are an attractive stack. London is an exciting one-off choice, as well.
The rookie has made a splash immediately, ranking 24th among wideouts with at least 10 targets with 0.82 Reception NEP per target. Additionally, per PFF, London is seventh out of 79 receivers targeted at least 10 times with 2.74 yards per route run (Y/RR).
London hasn't just been efficient; he's been a target hog and has been targeted deep. Per SIS, London has had the fifth-highest target share (32.9 percent) and a nifty 10.5-yard aDOT. In short, London's usage has been dreamy.
numberFire's projections are in love with him this week, awarding him the 10th-highest value score -- a measure of points per $1,000 of salary -- for a receiver on FanDuel's main slate. London is a fantastic selection in all game types in a matchup with the Browns that could turn into a shootout.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($4,300)
Isaiah Likely is a game context-driven tournament suggestion. And, of course, being attached to white-hot Lamar Jackson is attractive in DFS. The Baltimore Ravens are 3.0-point underdogs at home. Still, they have the seventh-highest implied total (24.25) on the main slate.
Mark Andrews has dominated Baltimore's passing attack. The stud tight end has an NFL-high 36.5 percent target share. Then, Rashod Bateman has an 18.8 percent target share. Devin Duvernay has been hyper-efficient, catching all eight of his targets for 121 yards and three touchdowns. So, that's unsustainable. Further, Duvernay hasn't been a target hog.
In fact, Likely's 11 targets are the third-most on the Ravens. Unfortunately, Likely has had only five receptions for 51 scoreless yards on those 11 looks. He's been used as a part-time player, ranking fifth on the Raves in routes (42).
Likely may see an uptick in routes if the Ravens are in a negative game script against the Bills. There is a legitimate risk that Likely scores zero FanDuel points, which he did in Week 1. But he's a viable contrarian dart for tournaments in a likely -- bad pun intended -- shootout.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.