Monday Night Football Betting: Are the Defenses Going to Dominate This NFC East Clash?

After not having a Sunday night game (I know we did, but let’s all agree we didn’t), we’re to be treated to an epic showdown between Daniel Jones and the New York Giants hosting Cooper Rush’s Dallas Cowboys.

Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):

Team nERD nERD Rank Rush Off NEP Rank Pass Off NEP Rank Rush Def NEP Rank Pass Def NEP Rank
Dallas Cowboys 0.18 14 20 28 16 9
New York Giants -2.93 24 6 21 20 11

Inside the Standard Bets

Our model is giving the edge to the underdog Cowboys, forecasting them to win outright 58.1% of the time and to cover the +1.5-point spread 59.3% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cowboys' moneyline odds are -102 (implied probability 50.5%) and odds to cover the spread are set at -112 (52.8%).

With our model projecting the (minor) upset, both the Dallas moneyline and spread bets are two-star wagers (two-unit recommendations), per our numbers.

The point total for this matchup sits at a paltry 39.5 points, but our model gives a 61.9% chance we’ll see more points than that. We have the over (-110 odds, 52.4% implied) pegged as another two-star bet and the best value of the standard bets.

Player and Team Prop Value Bets

In his second career start, Cooper Rush peppered CeeDee Lamb with 11 targets and hooked up for 7 receptions. Our player projection model has CeeDee grabbing 5.7 receptions and netting 71.2 receiving yards. Both of these are above his reception and receiving yardage lines of 5.5 catches and 61.5 yards, respectively.

The safe bet is CeeDee to go over his 61.5 receiving yards at -110 odds. Though for me, his alternative line of 70+ receiving yards at +130 odds is the better value.

The Giants didn’t score many points last year, regardless of whether it was the first or second half of the game. This season, more points are on the board under new head coach Brian Daboll, but the first-half scoring woes are still there.

After finishing the 2021 season dead-last in first-half scoring, the Giants are still last after two games in 2022. However, they have produced points in the second half -- leading the league in the split heading into Week 3.

After the first two games, Dallas is pretty much the Giants' mirror image – they are second in first-half points and dead last in second-half points. Dallas has also been a bit stingy on defense in the opening half, giving up only 15 points in the first half this season.

I like taking Dallas as the first-half winner at -104, and I really like taking the Cowboys first-half winner three-way (where you can bet on a tie) at +110.

Final Notes

For bets on the spread, 53% of bets and 52% of the money are on the Giants.

Since 2020, the 39.5-point total is the lowest line for a Dallas game, dropping below the previous low of 41.5 (Week 2 of this season). Prior to that, the lowest total for that span was 43.0 points in Week 8 of 2020.

Since 2021, Dallas has covered in eight of nine away games, and the under has hit in the last nine Giants home games.