3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 3
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
CeeDee Lamb Any Time Touchdown (+160)
Lamb comes in with great odds (+160) for a touchdown tonight, so let's dig into things. First off, yes, this game doesn't have an amazing over/under since it's sitting at only 39.5, but it does feature a close 1.0-point spread. Hopefully, the game stays close and will offer plenty of back-and-forth action, leading to plenty of plays for both teams.
Lamb is by far the best receiving option for the Cowboys, who should be dealing with a very mixed group of offensive options. Tight end Dalton Schultz is listed as questionable tonight with a knee injury. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is also still likely out for the 'Boys.
This should all be a positive for Lamb since he comes in with a team-high 31.0% target share, has played on 95.9% of the offensive snaps, and has run a route on 96.2% of drop backs. He's also carrying a solid 10.5 average depth of target (aDOT), showing some decent big-play ability.
All of this should put Lamb in a spot to be the most-targeted receiver for the Cowboys and -- hopefully -- find the end zone for the first time this season.
Daniel Jones Over 28.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
With a close 1.0-point spread, the over on Daniel Jones' passing attempt prop is a spot to look.
Seeing a close spread is great for most props. If the game were to feature a huge spread in favor of the New York Giants, it would indicate they are expected to lead by multiple scores. In that scenario, it would put them in a spot to run the ball a ton and control the clock.
We have the opposite of that tonight with a 1.0-point spread, which should lead to more passing attempts. Jones has 34 and 21 passing attempts in the first two games, which are rather modest but should be trending up.
The Giants have a 49.22% pass play percentage, which is 28th in the league this season. The league average sits at 59.1%. There should be some regression to the mean for the Giants' offense, indicating Jones will be passing the ball more.
Our projections have Jones going for 31.83 passing attempts, hitting the over on his prop tonight.
Ezekiel Elliott Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
To wrap up, let's look at an under for Ezekiel Elliott.
Under 11.5 receiving yards for Zeke is the spot to look tonight for a few reasons. First off, he's in a split backfield with Tony Pollard, who is by far the better receiving back. Zeke is playing on 61.8% of the offensive snaps and running a route on 41.0% of the dropbacks. Compare that to Pollard, who is playing on 48.0% of the snaps and running a route on 33.3% of the drop backs.
That may not seem like a massive difference, but Pollard is actually being targeted more on the routes run. Zeke has a minuscule 5.6% target share compared to Pollard at 12.7%. Through the first two games of the season, Zeke has a total of four targets and two receptions -- for a total of negative seven receiving yards.
At this point, Zeke isn't picking up positive yardage even when given an opportunity. Pollard may also be the coaching staff's choice for that passing-down role if Dallas needs it late. Even at this small number, we can target the under.