NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 3

Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | $9,000 | 25.1 | 2.82 | 19.0 | 31.0 | 52.1% | 1.98 |
Jalen Hurts | $8,100 | 24.1 | 2.98 | 17.8 | 30.6 | 46.6% | 2.56 |
Patrick Mahomes | $8,700 | 21.5 | 2.43 | 15.9 | 26.6 | 30.7% | 0.85 |
Lamar Jackson | $8,600 | 21.3 | 2.45 | 15.3 | 27.2 | 33.6% | 0.95 |
Kirk Cousins | $7,600 | 20.8 | 2.75 | 15.5 | 26.1 | 30.1% | 1.68 |
Joe Burrow | $7,500 | 19.7 | 2.68 | 14.6 | 24.6 | 23.4% | 1.35 |
Kyler Murray | $7,800 | 19.4 | 2.44 | 13.6 | 24.5 | 22.7% | 0.92 |
Matthew Stafford | $7,700 | 19.2 | 2.46 | 13.7 | 24.0 | 21.4% | 0.89 |
Tua Tagovailoa | $7,300 | 18.3 | 2.51 | 13.2 | 23.1 | 17.9% | 1.00 |
Justin Fields | $7,000 | 17.4 | 2.52 | 11.8 | 22.9 | 17.8% | 0.99 |
Derek Carr | $7,100 | 17.3 | 2.44 | 13.0 | 22.4 | 15.6% | 0.93 |
Jared Goff | $7,100 | 17.0 | 2.41 | 12.1 | 21.7 | 12.0% | 0.75 |
Marcus Mariota | $7,300 | 16.7 | 2.27 | 11.6 | 21.8 | 15.1% | 0.61 |
Carson Wentz | $7,500 | 16.4 | 2.16 | 11.3 | 21.5 | 11.8% | 0.49 |
Aaron Rodgers | $7,400 | 16.3 | 2.22 | 10.9 | 21.6 | 12.7% | 0.54 |
Tom Brady | $7,400 | 16.0 | 2.10 | 11.1 | 20.5 | 10.1% | 0.39 |
Geno Smith | $6,300 | 15.7 | 2.50 | 10.6 | 20.5 | 10.1% | 1.00 |
Jameis Winston | $6,900 | 15.6 | 2.31 | 10.5 | 20.2 | 8.5% | 0.59 |
Matt Ryan | $6,700 | 15.5 | 2.30 | 10.6 | 20.2 | 9.9% | 0.63 |
Mac Jones | $6,400 | 15.5 | 2.49 | 10.5 | 20.5 | 10.5% | 0.91 |
Ryan Tannehill | $7,200 | 15.2 | 2.15 | 10.0 | 20.6 | 10.3% | 0.46 |
Trevor Lawrence | $7,000 | 15.0 | 2.14 | 9.8 | 20.4 | 10.5% | 0.49 |
Chase Daniel | $6,500 | 14.5 | 2.16 | 9.3 | 18.8 | 6.6% | 0.50 |
Joe Flacco | $6,800 | 14.4 | 2.12 | 10.1 | 19.2 | 6.3% | 0.43 |
Baker Mayfield | $6,600 | 14.0 | 2.08 | 9.1 | 18.9 | 6.4% | 0.43 |
Davis Mills | $6,400 | 13.7 | 2.07 | 8.1 | 17.9 | 5.0% | 0.41 |
Running Back
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dalvin Cook | $8,300 | 18.4 | 2.25 | 12.6 | 24.3 | 42.8% | 2.78 |
Jonathan Taylor | $9,400 | 18.4 | 1.98 | 12.9 | 24.5 | 44.2% | 1.87 |
Christian McCaffrey | $8,500 | 17.9 | 2.15 | 12.5 | 23.6 | 41.3% | 2.47 |
Joe Mixon | $8,200 | 17.8 | 2.19 | 12.3 | 23.7 | 40.5% | 2.77 |
Derrick Henry | $8,800 | 16.2 | 1.88 | 10.7 | 21.8 | 32.4% | 1.28 |
Leonard Fournette | $7,200 | 16.2 | 2.25 | 10.8 | 22.1 | 33.9% | 2.83 |
Austin Ekeler | $8,700 | 15.2 | 1.76 | 9.9 | 21.0 | 28.4% | 1.01 |
David Montgomery | $7,100 | 14.5 | 2.05 | 9.0 | 19.6 | 23.8% | 1.71 |
Alvin Kamara | $7,000 | 14.1 | 1.92 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 22.5% | 1.63 |
D'Andre Swift | $8,000 | 13.9 | 1.72 | 8.5 | 18.9 | 20.9% | 0.90 |
James Conner | $7,100 | 12.8 | 1.83 | 7.9 | 17.9 | 17.2% | 1.22 |
Antonio Gibson | $6,700 | 12.6 | 1.87 | 7.6 | 17.5 | 14.5% | 1.33 |
Josh Jacobs | $6,500 | 12.5 | 1.96 | 7.9 | 17.4 | 14.8% | 1.53 |
Aaron Jones | $7,000 | 12.3 | 1.82 | 7.5 | 17.5 | 15.3% | 1.09 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,600 | 11.6 | 1.48 | 6.8 | 16.0 | 10.6% | 0.49 |
A.J. Dillon | $6,900 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 6.9 | 15.9 | 9.8% | 0.77 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $7,300 | 11.2 | 1.53 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 9.7% | 0.54 |
Miles Sanders | $6,800 | 11.0 | 1.67 | 5.8 | 16.1 | 11.2% | 0.80 |
Dameon Pierce | $5,800 | 10.8 | 1.90 | 6.1 | 15.3 | 8.1% | 1.22 |
Michael Carter | $5,900 | 10.8 | 1.84 | 6.1 | 15.1 | 9.0% | 1.10 |
Damien Harris | $6,400 | 10.7 | 1.73 | 6.1 | 15.4 | 9.5% | 0.93 |
James Robinson | $6,600 | 10.5 | 1.60 | 6.0 | 14.9 | 7.5% | 0.72 |
Cam Akers | $5,800 | 9.7 | 1.75 | 5.5 | 14.4 | 7.3% | 0.95 |
Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,400 | 9.6 | 1.78 | 5.4 | 14.0 | 5.2% | 1.06 |
Rashaad Penny | $6,200 | 9.5 | 1.51 | 4.5 | 13.6 | 4.4% | 0.59 |
Darrell Henderson | $6,300 | 9.4 | 1.49 | 4.5 | 13.8 | 6.0% | 0.58 |
Chase Edmonds | $5,700 | 9.3 | 1.64 | 4.8 | 14.1 | 6.0% | 0.81 |
Raheem Mostert | $5,500 | 9.3 | 1.70 | 5.3 | 13.7 | 4.5% | 0.97 |
Devin Singletary | $6,100 | 9.1 | 1.51 | 4.9 | 13.7 | 4.7% | 0.61 |
J.K. Dobbins | $6,000 | 8.9 | 1.48 | 4.4 | 13.4 | 5.5% | 0.59 |
Breece Hall | $6,200 | 8.5 | 1.38 | 4.0 | 12.8 | 3.5% | 0.45 |
Travis Etienne | $5,600 | 8.0 | 1.44 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 2.3% | 0.51 |
Jamaal Williams | $6,500 | 7.7 | 1.13 | 3.4 | 11.4 | 2.3% | 0.22 |
Mark Ingram | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.25 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 1.6% | 0.37 |
Jerick McKinnon | $5,000 | 7.2 | 1.45 | 2.7 | 11.4 | 1.7% | 0.60 |
Rex Burkhead | $5,200 | 7.1 | 1.31 | 2.9 | 11.2 | 1.4% | 0.47 |
Nyheim Hines | $5,100 | 6.6 | 1.36 | 2.5 | 10.9 | 1.4% | 0.48 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.33 | 2.6 | 11.3 | 1.5% | 0.46 |
Kenneth Walker III | $5,200 | 6.5 | 1.36 | 2.4 | 10.7 | 1.7% | 0.43 |
Zack Moss | $5,500 | 6.2 | 1.21 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 1.0% | 0.31 |
Alexander Mattison | $7,000 | 5.8 | 0.82 | 1.6 | 9.7 | 0.9% | 0.06 |
Kenneth Gainwell | $5,900 | 5.7 | 1.02 | 1.9 | 10.3 | 0.8% | 0.17 |
Tyler Allgeier | $4,800 | 5.3 | 1.07 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 0.5% | 0.29 |
Rachaad White | $5,100 | 5.3 | 1.08 | 1.4 | 9.8 | 0.5% | 0.30 |
Khalil Herbert | $6,000 | 4.9 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 0.3% | 0.09 |
Wide Receiver
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cooper Kupp | $9,800 | 19.3 | 1.98 | 14.8 | 23.7 | 60.5% | 2.29 |
Justin Jefferson | $9,500 | 18.8 | 2.00 | 13.2 | 24.8 | 58.0% | 1.92 |
Stefon Diggs | $8,300 | 16.5 | 1.97 | 11.1 | 21.6 | 45.1% | 1.68 |
Davante Adams | $8,700 | 16.3 | 1.83 | 11.2 | 21.2 | 41.4% | 1.40 |
Tyreek Hill | $8,400 | 15.3 | 1.77 | 9.9 | 19.6 | 35.7% | 1.03 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,800 | 15.2 | 1.91 | 11.3 | 18.6 | 31.6% | 1.69 |
Ja'Marr Chase | $8,500 | 14.9 | 1.76 | 9.9 | 19.9 | 35.6% | 1.00 |
A.J. Brown | $8,000 | 13.9 | 1.72 | 9.4 | 18.5 | 30.1% | 0.96 |
Michael Pittman Jr. | $7,400 | 12.8 | 1.77 | 8.9 | 17.4 | 24.4% | 1.09 |
Jaylen Waddle | $7,500 | 12.7 | 1.69 | 9.0 | 16.6 | 20.6% | 0.83 |
Tee Higgins | $7,300 | 12.2 | 1.75 | 7.7 | 16.9 | 21.8% | 0.84 |
Brandin Cooks | $6,600 | 12.0 | 1.80 | 7.4 | 16.6 | 20.9% | 1.23 |
Marquise Brown | $7,000 | 11.5 | 1.66 | 7.3 | 16.0 | 18.7% | 0.84 |
D.K. Metcalf | $6,700 | 11.0 | 1.61 | 5.8 | 15.6 | 17.7% | 0.72 |
Tyler Lockett | $6,600 | 10.9 | 1.65 | 6.1 | 16.0 | 18.2% | 0.86 |
Mike Williams | $7,000 | 10.9 | 1.46 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 16.7% | 0.60 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,100 | 10.8 | 1.76 | 7.7 | 14.0 | 8.8% | 1.10 |
Michael Thomas | $7,300 | 10.8 | 1.48 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 14.0% | 0.44 |
Gabriel Davis | $7,200 | 10.7 | 1.53 | 6.5 | 15.3 | 16.3% | 0.58 |
Christian Kirk | $7,100 | 10.7 | 1.58 | 6.2 | 15.6 | 17.2% | 0.62 |
D.J. Moore | $6,400 | 10.6 | 1.63 | 6.4 | 15.1 | 14.9% | 0.81 |
Drake London | $6,000 | 10.4 | 1.75 | 6.9 | 14.1 | 11.0% | 1.01 |
Curtis Samuel | $6,300 | 10.3 | 1.62 | 7.6 | 12.9 | 3.4% | 0.56 |
Keenan Allen | $7,500 | 10.2 | 1.32 | 6.1 | 13.8 | 8.8% | 0.23 |
Terry McLaurin | $6,900 | 9.8 | 1.48 | 5.4 | 15.1 | 14.9% | 0.56 |
Allen Robinson | $6,000 | 9.7 | 1.66 | 5.5 | 14.2 | 10.8% | 0.85 |
DeVonta Smith | $6,000 | 9.7 | 1.62 | 5.4 | 13.8 | 9.9% | 0.69 |
Darnell Mooney | $6,300 | 9.5 | 1.52 | 5.0 | 13.5 | 9.0% | 0.55 |
Rashod Bateman | $6,800 | 9.5 | 1.45 | 5.6 | 13.6 | 9.3% | 0.41 |
Adam Thielen | $6,000 | 9.5 | 1.56 | 5.5 | 13.2 | 6.6% | 0.63 |
Allen Lazard | $6,200 | 9.1 | 1.41 | 4.7 | 12.6 | 6.2% | 0.43 |
Garrett Wilson | $6,100 | 9.0 | 1.54 | 4.7 | 13.4 | 9.5% | 0.60 |
Russell Gage | $5,700 | 9.0 | 1.58 | 5.5 | 12.4 | 4.2% | 0.62 |
Robert Woods | $5,700 | 8.8 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 12.3 | 5.4% | 0.57 |
Treylon Burks | $5,900 | 8.4 | 1.40 | 4.4 | 12.5 | 7.4% | 0.50 |
Elijah Moore | $5,500 | 8.4 | 1.57 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 6.8% | 0.71 |
Robbie Anderson | $5,700 | 8.4 | 1.44 | 4.5 | 11.9 | 5.2% | 0.48 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,600 | 8.3 | 1.46 | 3.8 | 13.2 | 8.6% | 0.65 |
D.J. Chark | $5,500 | 8.2 | 1.56 | 3.4 | 13.4 | 10.0% | 0.72 |
Nelson Agholor | $5,900 | 8.2 | 1.46 | 4.1 | 12.9 | 9.3% | 0.55 |
Romeo Doubs | $5,300 | 8.2 | 1.60 | 4.9 | 11.7 | 3.8% | 0.68 |
Breshad Perriman | $5,300 | 8.1 | 1.60 | 4.7 | 12.1 | 5.1% | 0.72 |
Chris Olave | $5,500 | 8.1 | 1.51 | 3.9 | 12.6 | 6.4% | 0.66 |
Greg Dortch | $5,100 | 7.9 | 1.58 | 4.4 | 11.1 | 1.9% | 0.59 |
Jarvis Landry | $5,900 | 7.8 | 1.34 | 4.5 | 11.1 | 2.9% | 0.32 |
DeVante Parker | $5,200 | 7.6 | 1.46 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 4.7% | 0.59 |
Nico Collins | $5,400 | 7.5 | 1.32 | 3.3 | 11.4 | 4.2% | 0.44 |
Jahan Dotson | $6,000 | 7.4 | 1.23 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 4.5% | 0.27 |
Marvin Jones | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.37 | 3.1 | 10.7 | 3.2% | 0.41 |
Zay Jones | $5,400 | 7.1 | 1.35 | 2.7 | 11.6 | 5.5% | 0.48 |
Mecole Hardman | $5,800 | 7.1 | 1.19 | 4.0 | 9.7 | 1.2% | 0.14 |
A.J. Green | $5,300 | 7.0 | 1.36 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 4.0% | 0.45 |
Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | 6.9 | 1.16 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 1.2% | 0.16 |
Scotty Miller | $5,000 | 6.8 | 1.35 | 3.3 | 10.3 | 2.9% | 0.44 |
Josh Palmer | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.17 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 1.2% | 0.21 |
Corey Davis | $5,800 | 6.6 | 1.13 | 2.8 | 10.3 | 2.9% | 0.24 |
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,300 | 6.4 | 1.24 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 1.5% | 0.29 |
Mack Hollins | $5,300 | 6.4 | 1.29 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 2.0% | 0.41 |
Ben Skowronek | $4,900 | 6.4 | 1.32 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 1.2% | 0.38 |
K.J. Osborn | $5,500 | 6.3 | 1.14 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 0.9% | 0.18 |
Equanimeous St. Brown | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.11 | 2.8 | 9.7 | 1.1% | 0.20 |
Devin Duvernay | $5,700 | 6.0 | 1.04 | 3.0 | 8.6 | 0.3% | 0.09 |
Randall Cobb | $5,000 | 5.9 | 1.20 | 3.0 | 9.3 | 0.3% | 0.25 |
Kendrick Bourne | $5,100 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 0.3% | 0.18 |
Isaiah McKenzie | $5,500 | 5.5 | 1.01 | 2.9 | 8.0 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
Tight End
Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Travis Kelce | $7,800 | 14.1 | 1.83 | 9.5 | 18.6 | 45.3% | 1.19 |
Mark Andrews | $7,700 | 12.6 | 1.67 | 8.0 | 17.5 | 37.6% | 0.81 |
Darren Waller | $6,400 | 11.1 | 1.76 | 6.0 | 15.7 | 28.6% | 0.96 |
Kyle Pitts | $5,600 | 9.4 | 1.72 | 4.7 | 14.0 | 20.8% | 0.88 |
Dallas Goedert | $5,500 | 9.3 | 1.65 | 5.3 | 13.0 | 14.4% | 0.81 |
Tyler Higbee | $5,700 | 9.0 | 1.56 | 5.3 | 12.6 | 13.6% | 0.63 |
T.J. Hockenson | $5,500 | 8.8 | 1.59 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 13.6% | 0.79 |
Zach Ertz | $5,200 | 8.5 | 1.65 | 4.7 | 12.4 | 13.6% | 0.79 |
Dawson Knox | $5,300 | 7.7 | 1.46 | 4.0 | 11.2 | 8.3% | 0.51 |
Irv Smith Jr. | $5,000 | 7.6 | 1.44 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 7.7% | 0.55 |
Gerald Everett | $5,800 | 7.5 | 1.30 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 6.2% | 0.28 |
Logan Thomas | $5,400 | 6.7 | 1.19 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 7.5% | 0.32 |
Robert Tonyan | $4,800 | 6.4 | 1.31 | 2.7 | 9.7 | 4.2% | 0.41 |
Evan Engram | $5,200 | 6.4 | 1.14 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 3.8% | 0.25 |
Hayden Hurst | $5,100 | 6.1 | 1.13 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 3.2% | 0.20 |
Cole Kmet | $5,000 | 5.9 | 1.22 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 3.6% | 0.30 |
Tyler Conklin | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.12 | 2.7 | 8.6 | 2.6% | 0.17 |
Mike Gesicki | $5,400 | 5.6 | 0.97 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 3.4% | 0.16 |
Hunter Henry | $4,800 | 5.6 | 1.25 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 4.1% | 0.36 |
Jonnu Smith | $4,500 | 5.4 | 1.22 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 2.0% | 0.34 |
Noah Fant | $4,800 | 5.2 | 1.03 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 1.8% | 0.19 |
Austin Hooper | $4,900 | 5.2 | 1.10 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 1.4% | 0.20 |
Juwan Johnson | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.02 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 3.5% | 0.28 |
Isaiah Likely | $4,500 | 4.6 | 1.01 | 1.3 | 7.8 | 0.8% | 0.20 |
Cameron Brate | $4,600 | 4.5 | 1.01 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 1.2% | 0.16 |
Kylen Granson | $4,700 | 4.3 | 0.86 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 0.5% | 0.11 |
Mo Alie-Cox | $4,600 | 4.0 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 1.6% | 0.17 |