NFL

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 3

FanDuel matchups and tournaments are won and lost because of floor and ceiling outcomes. How does the Week 3 main slate look after a thousand simulations?

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Josh
Allen
$9,000 25.12.8219.031.052.1%1.98
Jalen
Hurts
$8,100 24.12.9817.830.646.6%2.56
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,700 21.52.4315.926.630.7%0.85
Lamar
Jackson
$8,600 21.32.4515.327.233.6%0.95
Kirk
Cousins
$7,600 20.82.7515.526.130.1%1.68
Joe
Burrow
$7,500 19.72.6814.624.623.4%1.35
Kyler
Murray
$7,800 19.42.4413.624.522.7%0.92
Matthew
Stafford
$7,700 19.22.4613.724.021.4%0.89
Tua
Tagovailoa
$7,300 18.32.5113.223.117.9%1.00
Justin
Fields
$7,000 17.42.5211.822.917.8%0.99
Derek
Carr
$7,100 17.32.4413.022.415.6%0.93
Jared
Goff
$7,100 17.02.4112.121.712.0%0.75
Marcus
Mariota
$7,300 16.72.2711.621.815.1%0.61
Carson
Wentz
$7,500 16.42.1611.321.511.8%0.49
Aaron
Rodgers
$7,400 16.32.2210.921.612.7%0.54
Tom
Brady
$7,400 16.02.1011.120.510.1%0.39
Geno
Smith
$6,300 15.72.5010.620.510.1%1.00
Jameis
Winston
$6,900 15.62.3110.520.28.5%0.59
Matt
Ryan
$6,700 15.52.3010.620.29.9%0.63
Mac
Jones
$6,400 15.52.4910.520.510.5%0.91
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,200 15.22.1510.020.610.3%0.46
Trevor
Lawrence
$7,000 15.02.149.820.410.5%0.49
Chase
Daniel
$6,500 14.52.169.318.86.6%0.50
Joe
Flacco
$6,800 14.42.1210.119.26.3%0.43
Baker
Mayfield
$6,600 14.02.089.118.96.4%0.43
Davis
Mills
$6,400 13.72.078.117.95.0%0.41

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Dalvin
Cook
$8,300 18.42.2512.624.342.8%2.78
Jonathan
Taylor
$9,400 18.41.9812.924.544.2%1.87
Christian
McCaffrey
$8,500 17.92.1512.523.641.3%2.47
Joe
Mixon
$8,200 17.82.1912.323.740.5%2.77
Derrick
Henry
$8,800 16.21.8810.721.832.4%1.28
Leonard
Fournette
$7,200 16.22.2510.822.133.9%2.83
Austin
Ekeler
$8,700 15.21.769.921.028.4%1.01
David
Montgomery
$7,100 14.52.059.019.623.8%1.71
Alvin
Kamara
$7,000 14.11.928.819.122.5%1.63
D'Andre
Swift
$8,000 13.91.728.518.920.9%0.90
James
Conner
$7,100 12.81.837.917.917.2%1.22
Antonio
Gibson
$6,700 12.61.877.617.514.5%1.33
Josh
Jacobs
$6,500 12.51.967.917.414.8%1.53
Aaron
Jones
$7,000 12.31.827.517.515.3%1.09
Cordarrelle
Patterson
$7,600 11.61.486.816.010.6%0.49
A.J.
Dillon
$6,900 11.21.616.915.99.8%0.77
Clyde
Edwards-Helaire
$7,300 11.21.536.315.69.7%0.54
Miles
Sanders
$6,800 11.01.675.816.111.2%0.80
Dameon
Pierce
$5,800 10.81.906.115.38.1%1.22
Michael
Carter
$5,900 10.81.846.115.19.0%1.10
Damien
Harris
$6,400 10.71.736.115.49.5%0.93
James
Robinson
$6,600 10.51.606.014.97.5%0.72
Cam
Akers
$5,800 9.71.755.514.47.3%0.95
Rhamondre
Stevenson
$5,400 9.61.785.414.05.2%1.06
Rashaad
Penny
$6,200 9.51.514.513.64.4%0.59
Darrell
Henderson
$6,300 9.41.494.513.86.0%0.58
Chase
Edmonds
$5,700 9.31.644.814.16.0%0.81
Raheem
Mostert
$5,500 9.31.705.313.74.5%0.97
Devin
Singletary
$6,100 9.11.514.913.74.7%0.61
J.K.
Dobbins
$6,000 8.91.484.413.45.5%0.59
Breece
Hall
$6,200 8.51.384.012.83.5%0.45
Travis
Etienne
$5,600 8.01.443.112.12.3%0.51
Jamaal
Williams
$6,500 7.71.133.411.42.3%0.22
Mark
Ingram
$5,700 7.31.252.911.51.6%0.37
Jerick
McKinnon
$5,000 7.21.452.711.41.7%0.60
Rex
Burkhead
$5,200 7.11.312.911.21.4%0.47
Nyheim
Hines
$5,100 6.61.362.510.91.4%0.48
J.D.
McKissic
$5,300 6.51.332.611.31.5%0.46
Kenneth
Walker
III
$5,200 6.51.362.410.71.7%0.43
Zack
Moss
$5,500 6.21.212.510.61.0%0.31
Alexander
Mattison
$7,000 5.80.821.69.70.9%0.06
Kenneth
Gainwell
$5,900 5.71.021.910.30.8%0.17
Tyler
Allgeier
$4,800 5.31.071.39.00.5%0.29
Rachaad
White
$5,100 5.31.081.49.80.5%0.30
Khalil
Herbert
$6,000 4.90.790.88.40.3%0.09

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Cooper
Kupp
$9,800 19.31.9814.823.760.5%2.29
Justin
Jefferson
$9,500 18.82.0013.224.858.0%1.92
Stefon
Diggs
$8,300 16.51.9711.121.645.1%1.68
Davante
Adams
$8,700 16.31.8311.221.241.4%1.40
Tyreek
Hill
$8,400 15.31.779.919.635.7%1.03
Amon-Ra
St.
Brown
$7,800 15.21.9111.318.631.6%1.69
Ja'Marr
Chase
$8,500 14.91.769.919.935.6%1.00
A.J.
Brown
$8,000 13.91.729.418.530.1%0.96
Michael
Pittman
Jr.
$7,400 12.81.778.917.424.4%1.09
Jaylen
Waddle
$7,500 12.71.699.016.620.6%0.83
Tee
Higgins
$7,300 12.21.757.716.921.8%0.84
Brandin
Cooks
$6,600 12.01.807.416.620.9%1.23
Marquise
Brown
$7,000 11.51.667.316.018.7%0.84
D.K.
Metcalf
$6,700 11.01.615.815.617.7%0.72
Tyler
Lockett
$6,600 10.91.656.116.018.2%0.86
Mike
Williams
$7,000 10.91.466.315.616.7%0.60
JuJu
Smith-Schuster
$6,100 10.81.767.714.08.8%1.10
Michael
Thomas
$7,300 10.81.486.414.714.0%0.44
Gabriel
Davis
$7,200 10.71.536.515.316.3%0.58
Christian Kirk$7,10010.71.586.215.617.2%0.62
D.J.
Moore
$6,400 10.61.636.415.114.9%0.81
Drake
London
$6,000 10.41.756.914.111.0%1.01
Curtis
Samuel
$6,300 10.31.627.612.93.4%0.56
Keenan
Allen
$7,500 10.21.326.113.88.8%0.23
Terry
McLaurin
$6,900 9.81.485.415.114.9%0.56
Allen
Robinson
$6,000 9.71.665.514.210.8%0.85
DeVonta
Smith
$6,000 9.71.625.413.89.9%0.69
Darnell
Mooney
$6,300 9.51.525.013.59.0%0.55
Rashod
Bateman
$6,800 9.51.455.613.69.3%0.41
Adam
Thielen
$6,000 9.51.565.513.26.6%0.63
Allen
Lazard
$6,200 9.11.414.712.66.2%0.43
Garrett
Wilson
$6,100 9.01.544.713.49.5%0.60
Russell
Gage
$5,700 9.01.585.512.44.2%0.62
Robert
Woods
$5,700 8.81.485.212.35.4%0.57
Treylon
Burks
$5,900 8.41.404.412.57.4%0.50
Elijah
Moore
$5,500 8.41.574.312.86.8%0.71
Robbie
Anderson
$5,700 8.41.444.511.95.2%0.48
Marquez
Valdes-Scantling
$5,600 8.31.463.813.28.6%0.65
D.J.
Chark
$5,500 8.21.563.413.410.0%0.72
Nelson
Agholor
$5,900 8.21.464.112.99.3%0.55
Romeo
Doubs
$5,300 8.21.604.911.73.8%0.68
Breshad
Perriman
$5,300 8.11.604.712.15.1%0.72
Chris
Olave
$5,500 8.11.513.912.66.4%0.66
Greg
Dortch
$5,100 7.91.584.411.11.9%0.59
Jarvis
Landry
$5,900 7.81.344.511.12.9%0.32
DeVante
Parker
$5,200 7.61.463.511.84.7%0.59
Nico
Collins
$5,400 7.51.323.311.44.2%0.44
Jahan
Dotson
$6,000 7.41.233.510.84.5%0.27
Marvin
Jones
$5,300 7.11.373.110.73.2%0.41
Zay
Jones
$5,400 7.11.352.711.65.5%0.48
Mecole
Hardman
$5,800 7.11.194.09.71.2%0.14
A.J.
Green
$5,300 7.01.363.511.04.0%0.45
Tyler
Boyd
$5,900 6.91.164.110.01.2%0.16
Scotty
Miller
$5,000 6.81.353.310.32.9%0.44
Josh
Palmer
$5,600 6.61.173.410.01.2%0.21
Corey
Davis
$5,800 6.61.132.810.32.9%0.24
Nick
Westbrook-Ikhine
$5,300 6.41.243.210.11.5%0.29
Mack
Hollins
$5,300 6.41.293.110.82.0%0.41
Ben
Skowronek
$4,900 6.41.323.39.91.2%0.38
K.J.
Osborn
$5,500 6.31.142.89.60.9%0.18
Equanimeous
St.
Brown
$5,500 6.11.112.89.71.1%0.20
Devin
Duvernay
$5,700 6.01.043.08.60.3%0.09
Randall
Cobb
$5,000 5.91.203.09.30.3%0.25
Kendrick
Bourne
$5,100 5.51.092.58.60.3%0.18
Isaiah
McKenzie
$5,500 5.51.012.98.00.1%0.06


Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Travis
Kelce
$7,800 14.11.839.518.645.3%1.19
Mark
Andrews
$7,700 12.61.678.017.537.6%0.81
Darren
Waller
$6,400 11.11.766.015.728.6%0.96
Kyle
Pitts
$5,600 9.41.724.714.020.8%0.88
Dallas
Goedert
$5,500 9.31.655.313.014.4%0.81
Tyler
Higbee
$5,700 9.01.565.312.613.6%0.63
T.J.
Hockenson
$5,500 8.81.595.212.813.6%0.79
Zach
Ertz
$5,200 8.51.654.712.413.6%0.79
Dawson
Knox
$5,300 7.71.464.011.28.3%0.51
Irv
Smith
Jr.
$5,000 7.61.443.910.97.7%0.55
Gerald
Everett
$5,800 7.51.304.111.06.2%0.28
Logan
Thomas
$5,400 6.71.192.710.67.5%0.32
Robert
Tonyan
$4,800 6.41.312.79.74.2%0.41
Evan
Engram
$5,200 6.41.142.79.63.8%0.25
Hayden
Hurst
$5,100 6.11.132.79.03.2%0.20
Cole
Kmet
$5,000 5.91.222.69.53.6%0.30
Tyler
Conklin
$5,200 5.81.122.78.62.6%0.17
Mike
Gesicki
$5,400 5.60.972.08.93.4%0.16
Hunter
Henry
$4,800 5.61.252.69.54.1%0.36
Jonnu
Smith
$4,500 5.41.222.28.52.0%0.34
Noah
Fant
$4,800 5.21.032.08.31.8%0.19
Austin
Hooper
$4,900 5.21.102.18.71.4%0.20
Juwan
Johnson
$4,800 5.11.021.48.83.5%0.28
Isaiah
Likely
$4,500 4.61.011.37.80.8%0.20
Cameron
Brate
$4,600 4.51.011.37.71.2%0.16
Kylen
Granson
$4,700 4.30.860.97.00.5%0.11
Mo
Alie-Cox
$4,600 4.00.880.77.51.6%0.17