3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 3
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Josh Jacobs Any Time Touchdown (+110)
Coming in with an 0-2 record, the Raiders should look to try and get the offense starting early and often versus the Tennessee Titans. We have a solid 45.5-point over/under here, indicating there should be some scoring on both sides.
The Titans' defense has struggled to start the season and comes in with the third-worst run defense, per our metrics, along with the ninth-worst pass D. The Raiders should be able to move the ball down the field, putting their offense in a spot to score.
This is where we turn to Josh Jacobs for an any time touchdown at plus money. So far this season, Jacobs has played on 67.5% of the offensive snaps, ran a route on 45.1% of drop backs, and most importantly, has accounted for 80.0% of the Raiders' red zone rushing attempts.
All of this has led to Jacobs seeing a total of 31 touches through the first two games, but he has yet to find the end zone. We have a player at plus money who is firmly involved in the offense and now has a very favorable matchup to record his first touchdown of the season.
Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Stefon Diggs' receiving prop is too low this week.
Call me crazy, but Stefon Diggs is good -- really freaking good. He went absolutely nuclear on Monday Night Football with 12 receptions, 148 yards, and 3 touchdowns. While three touchdowns every game isn't sustainable, reaching for 100-plus yards every game isn't out of the question.
Diggs comes in with a team-high 32.9% target share, 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT), and 38.5% red zone target share. Josh Allen targets Diggs often, targets him downfield, and targets him in the red zone. It's exactly what we want to see from an elite quarterback-receiver combo.
This week, the Buffalo Bills are rocking a slate-high 29.0-point implied team total and are set to take on the Miami Dolphins, where the over/under is a whopping 52.5 points. A ton of points are expected to be scored, and that is conducive for Diggs to produce plenty of yards.
The Dolphins also come in with the 10th-worst pass defense by our numbers, putting Diggs in a truly phenomenal spot -- not that he needs the help.
Joe Burrow Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Finally, we turn to the over on Joe Burrow's passing prop.
It hasn't been the best start for the Cincinnati Bengals, but they can pick up their first win this week against the New York Jets. The Bengals are 6.0-point road favorites and are carrying a 25.75 implied team total. Those are two good starting points for an offense that has scored a total of 37 points through the first two weeks.
The Jets' pass defense has struggled to start the campaign and is the sixth-worst pass D by our numbers. Burrow is off to a modest start this season, averaging 268 passing yards per game, which is below his season average from a year ago (288).
The Bengals have a 63.35% pass play percentage. That is the 12th-highest in the league and shows they are committed to the passing game, which is an encouraging sign for Burrow.
Finally, our projections have Burrow going for 276.82 passing yards, which is the second-highest among quarterbacks and puts him over his prop total.