3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 3
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Kareem Hunt Any Time Touchdown (+185)
Thursday Night Football brings a modest 38.5-point over/under and a 4.5-point spread in favor of the home Browns. This game could be a bit of an ugly one considering there will be 20 MPH winds in Cleveland.
The Browns have a 21.00 implied team total and are expected to get some points on the board, so that's where we want to look for a touchdown. We know that Kareem Hunt is in a timeshare with Nick Chubb, but there are still plenty of chances for Hunt.
Through two games this season, Hunt has a total of 30 touches and has played on 51.8% of the team's offensive snaps. What's more important to note is that Hunt has 6 out of the team's 16 red zone rushing attempts and 2 out of the 7 red zone targets. That means 8 of his 30 total touches (26%) have come in the scoring area of the field. Not too bad for a "backup running back."
The Steelers come in with the 12th-worst run defense by our metrics, putting Hunt in a favorable spot to find the end zone.
Jacoby Brissett Under 192.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Next up, time to take an under for Jacoby Brissett.
As noted above, there will be stiff winds in this game, a very important note for passing props. High winds impact the passing game, especially deep balls, which can limit a quarterback's passing upside. That is a solid starting point for this under in a game that already has a very modest 38.5-point total.
Cleveland comes in with a 45.32% pass play percentage this season, which is the third-lowest in the league. This shouldn't be a shock at all -- a team with their backup quarterback at the helm has turned to the rushing game on a more frequent basis.
The Steelers come in with the sixth-best pass defense, making this a tough test for Brissett, who is averaging just 188 passing yards per game. Our projections have Brissett going for 183.87 passing yards, hitting the under on his total.
Mitch Trubisky to Throw an Interception (-130)
Lastly, an interception prop for Mitch Trubisky.
This can be summed up simply -- Trubisky isn't a good quarterback and has proven over the course of his career that he is very prone to interceptions.
To break that down further, Trubisky comes in with -6.20 Net Expected Points (NEP) this season. He's got a mark of -0.08 Passing NEP per drop back and a 37.33% Success Rate. He isn't a good quarterback this year and has a tough test in front of him tonight.
The Browns' defense comes in holding opposing quarterbacks to a 59.72% completion percentage, which is the ninth-best in the league. They also have a 7.69% team sack percentage, which is the 12th-best in the league. The Browns have been known for a solid pass rush over the last few seasons, and they're starting things off the same way this year.
Pressure on quarterbacks leads to rushed passes, bad decisions, and interceptions. Our projections have Trubisky throwing 0.94 interceptions tonight.