3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 2
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Isaiah McKenzie Anytime Touchdown (+160)
The Buffalo Bills are large 10-point home favorites with a 28.75 implied team total. They have a high offensive expectation tonight, and we want to capture some of that via player props. More specifically, let's look at an anytime touchdown.
As of now, Bills' wide receiver, Gabriel Davis, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and is 'unlikely' to play. This would put Isaiah McKenzie in a spot to be the number two receiver for the Bills.
Last week, McKenzie played on 43.1% of the offensive snaps and ran a route on 57.6% of Josh Allen's dropbacks. McKenzie also brought in a red zone target for a touchdown, which is an encouraging sign he is trusted in their passing offense.
While McKenzie only had a 9.7% target share last week, that could easily be elevated this week if Davis is ruled out. The Bills are expected to score four touchdowns with their implied team total, and McKenzie at +160 is a great spot to look.
Josh Allen Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Next up is a passing prop for the man leading the Buffalo Bills.
That would be over 33.5 passing attempts for Josh Allen -- a level he can certainly reach tonight. The Bills have that high team total, and it won't be a surprise to see much of that production come via the passing game. Last season, Allen averaged 38 passing attempts per game, which was the highest mark of his career.
In Week 1, the Bills had a 56.9% pass play percentage, which is lower than their 59.2% mark from a season ago. Last week's game against the Los Angeles Rams turned into a bit of a blowout, which limited Allen's need to push the ball in the passing game.
Tonight, our projections have Allen going for 36.44 passing attempts, putting him over the 33.5 mark.
DeVonta Smith Over 3.5 Receptions (+124)
With a 48.5 over/under between the Minnesota Vikings and the Eagles, there are plenty of points expected to be scored. More scoring means we want to look for some overs on player props to grab some positive correlation. That leads me to over 3.5 receptions for Smith, who is coming off a slow game.
To be exact, Smith had four targets for zero receptions in Week 1. A big goose egg to start the season isn't great, but we need to dig a bit further.
A.J. Brown went nuts in Week 1 with 10 receptions and 155 yards. We also saw the Eagles post 216 rushing yards, which led to Smith not needing to do much in the offense.
Despite all of that, there were some good signs for Smith. He played on 95.8% of the offensive snaps and ran a route on 97.0% of Jalen Hurts' dropbacks. Both of those marks were the highest on the Eagles. Yes -- even higher than A.J. Brown. Smith is fully involved in their offense, he just didn't get the looks in Week 1.
Our projections have Smith going for 3.69 receptions and 49.39 yards, and that would sail over his receptions and yards props.