NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 2
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,200 | 21.4 | 2.56 | 15.4 | 26.4 | 29.3% | 1.43 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,500 | 20.2 | 2.40 | 14.8 | 25.8 | 27.8% | 1.06 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,600 | 20.1 | 2.58 | 14.3 | 24.9 | 24.6% | 1.47 |
| Derek Carr | $7,300 | 19.9 | 2.71 | 14.8 | 25.2 | 26.3% | 2.01 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,500 | 19.4 | 2.62 | 14.3 | 24.5 | 23.7% | 1.57 |
| Trey Lance | $7,500 | 19.4 | 2.55 | 13.8 | 24.6 | 23.4% | 1.39 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,900 | 19.4 | 2.43 | 13.8 | 24.2 | 21.4% | 1.15 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,400 | 18.2 | 2.49 | 13.3 | 23.3 | 19.0% | 1.25 |
| Tom Brady | $8,000 | 17.8 | 2.21 | 13.3 | 22.5 | 15.6% | 0.66 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,100 | 17.1 | 2.32 | 11.2 | 21.7 | 14.1% | 0.96 |
| Jared Goff | $6,700 | 16.9 | 2.56 | 11.9 | 22.2 | 15.0% | 1.41 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,800 | 16.6 | 2.47 | 11.7 | 21.4 | 12.4% | 1.16 |
| Marcus Mariota | $7,300 | 16.0 | 2.23 | 11.1 | 21.1 | 10.6% | 0.75 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,200 | 15.6 | 2.18 | 10.6 | 20.1 | 8.5% | 0.61 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,900 | 15.5 | 2.26 | 10.8 | 20.6 | 8.6% | 0.83 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,000 | 15.2 | 2.14 | 10.2 | 19.9 | 8.3% | 0.61 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,800 | 15.2 | 2.24 | 10.1 | 20.3 | 8.9% | 0.80 |
| Mac Jones | $6,400 | 14.8 | 2.21 | 9.7 | 18.9 | 7.1% | 0.74 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,500 | 14.8 | 2.20 | 9.3 | 19.1 | 7.8% | 0.72 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $6,600 | 14.8 | 2.27 | 9.8 | 19.8 | 8.3% | 0.82 |
| Davis Mills | $6,400 | 13.8 | 2.10 | 8.4 | 17.9 | 5.1% | 0.58 |
| Cooper Rush | $6,100 | 13.3 | 2.16 | 8.3 | 17.6 | 5.4% | 0.65 |
| Joe Flacco | $6,400 | 13.2 | 2.13 | 9.1 | 17.8 | 5.2% | 0.57 |
| Geno Smith | $6,300 | 13.0 | 2.12 | 8.2 | 18.2 | 4.6% | 0.63 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | $10,000 | 21.0 | 2.13 | 14.8 | 27.1 | 54.7% | 2.15 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,000 | 19.8 | 2.28 | 13.2 | 26.4 | 51.7% | 2.28 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,800 | 18.0 | 1.98 | 12.1 | 23.6 | 39.2% | 1.67 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,300 | 16.4 | 2.00 | 10.9 | 22.0 | 34.2% | 1.57 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,500 | 15.0 | 1.77 | 9.6 | 20.4 | 26.7% | 1.03 |
| D'Andre Swift | $8,200 | 14.9 | 1.81 | 9.5 | 20.2 | 26.4% | 1.18 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,800 | 14.8 | 1.91 | 9.3 | 19.9 | 24.8% | 1.33 |
| Javonte Williams | $7,300 | 14.5 | 2.02 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 24.9% | 1.67 |
| Darrell Henderson | $6,200 | 14.1 | 2.28 | 9.6 | 18.9 | 21.2% | 2.60 |
| James Conner | $7,600 | 13.8 | 1.79 | 8.7 | 18.9 | 20.9% | 1.12 |
| Najee Harris | $7,200 | 13.7 | 1.78 | 7.6 | 18.6 | 20.0% | 1.05 |
| Antonio Gibson | $7,400 | 13.5 | 1.88 | 8.2 | 19.2 | 21.6% | 1.31 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,600 | 13.2 | 1.96 | 8.3 | 17.9 | 15.8% | 1.48 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,500 | 12.4 | 1.69 | 7.5 | 18.0 | 16.6% | 0.89 |
| Chase Edmonds | $6,000 | 11.7 | 1.90 | 6.5 | 16.3 | 12.5% | 1.24 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,000 | 11.1 | 1.91 | 6.4 | 15.9 | 10.5% | 1.27 |
| James Robinson | $6,800 | 10.8 | 1.50 | 6.0 | 15.1 | 8.4% | 0.64 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $7,100 | 10.6 | 1.45 | 6.0 | 14.8 | 6.4% | 0.52 |
| Kareem Hunt | $7,000 | 10.5 | 1.53 | 5.9 | 15.9 | 9.3% | 0.65 |
| Damien Harris | $6,000 | 10.3 | 1.66 | 5.3 | 14.9 | 8.1% | 0.91 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,300 | 10.0 | 1.57 | 5.4 | 14.5 | 6.6% | 0.72 |
| Michael Carter | $5,900 | 9.8 | 1.56 | 5.1 | 14.1 | 6.9% | 0.76 |
| Rashaad Penny | $6,500 | 9.7 | 1.55 | 5.2 | 14.2 | 6.3% | 0.64 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,300 | 9.6 | 1.79 | 5.4 | 13.9 | 5.4% | 1.12 |
| Breece Hall | $5,900 | 9.3 | 1.62 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 5.2% | 0.78 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,800 | 9.3 | 1.62 | 5.1 | 13.9 | 7.1% | 0.82 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $6,000 | 9.1 | 1.42 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 4.7% | 0.59 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.53 | 4.3 | 13.6 | 5.9% | 0.73 |
| Travis Etienne | $5,800 | 8.7 | 1.51 | 4.2 | 12.8 | 4.5% | 0.64 |
| Dameon Pierce | $5,600 | 7.8 | 1.34 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 1.8% | 0.48 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,700 | 7.8 | 1.36 | 3.7 | 12.2 | 3.0% | 0.54 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,600 | 7.7 | 1.44 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 2.0% | 0.55 |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,400 | 7.7 | 1.17 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 2.2% | 0.32 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.25 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 2.8% | 0.50 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.40 | 3.0 | 11.6 | 3.1% | 0.60 |
| Cam Akers | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.11 | 2.1 | 10.2 | 1.1% | 0.34 |
| Rachaad White | $5,700 | 5.5 | 0.95 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 0.7% | 0.23 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,300 | 5.4 | 1.00 | 0.9 | 9.0 | 0.5% | 0.26 |
| Kenneth Walker III | $5,500 | 4.6 | 0.85 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 0.4% | 0.18 |
| Mike Davis | $5,100 | 4.5 | 0.89 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 0.3% | 0.21 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,800 | 18.0 | 2.02 | 13.2 | 23.0 | 51.5% | 2.06 |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,700 | 17.9 | 1.85 | 13.3 | 22.5 | 52.2% | 1.38 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,700 | 15.4 | 1.83 | 10.9 | 20.6 | 40.8% | 1.16 |
| Deebo Samuel | $8,000 | 15.1 | 1.88 | 11.6 | 18.5 | 31.1% | 1.53 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,000 | 14.4 | 1.78 | 9.9 | 18.5 | 29.8% | 1.08 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6,900 | 13.7 | 1.98 | 9.7 | 17.5 | 24.9% | 1.71 |
| Mike Evans | $8,300 | 13.1 | 1.58 | 7.7 | 18.3 | 27.8% | 0.72 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,800 | 12.6 | 1.85 | 7.1 | 18.3 | 27.8% | 1.15 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,300 | 12.3 | 1.92 | 7.8 | 16.6 | 21.9% | 1.36 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,700 | 12.3 | 1.94 | 7.8 | 17.6 | 25.6% | 1.32 |
| Marquise Brown | $7,400 | 11.9 | 1.58 | 7.2 | 16.1 | 19.1% | 0.69 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,200 | 11.8 | 1.95 | 7.0 | 16.7 | 21.7% | 1.28 |
| Tee Higgins | $7,000 | 11.8 | 1.72 | 7.7 | 16.4 | 20.3% | 0.91 |
| Diontae Johnson | $7,100 | 11.3 | 1.62 | 7.0 | 16.2 | 20.7% | 0.77 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,700 | 11.2 | 1.41 | 6.2 | 15.7 | 17.6% | 0.49 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,300 | 11.2 | 1.48 | 6.0 | 15.7 | 18.7% | 0.58 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,500 | 11.0 | 1.73 | 6.7 | 16.1 | 18.9% | 0.99 |
| Michael Thomas | $7,000 | 11.0 | 1.61 | 6.8 | 15.4 | 15.3% | 0.75 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $7,200 | 10.6 | 1.43 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 9.1% | 0.45 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,700 | 10.0 | 1.80 | 6.0 | 14.1 | 11.3% | 1.04 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $6,800 | 10.0 | 1.45 | 5.2 | 14.3 | 13.5% | 0.59 |
| Drake London | $5,600 | 9.8 | 1.77 | 5.6 | 14.3 | 12.6% | 1.05 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,300 | 9.7 | 1.57 | 5.6 | 14.3 | 10.7% | 0.73 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,600 | 9.6 | 1.67 | 6.3 | 12.6 | 4.7% | 0.81 |
| Rashod Bateman | $6,400 | 9.6 | 1.51 | 5.9 | 13.4 | 7.3% | 0.58 |
| Julio Jones | $5,700 | 9.5 | 1.67 | 5.3 | 13.9 | 11.9% | 0.86 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,700 | 9.4 | 1.65 | 6.5 | 12.3 | 3.4% | 0.79 |
| Robbie Anderson | $5,900 | 9.2 | 1.58 | 5.2 | 13.5 | 9.9% | 0.71 |
| D.J. Chark | $5,700 | 9.2 | 1.58 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 8.9% | 0.76 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,000 | 9.1 | 1.60 | 5.6 | 13.5 | 7.8% | 0.77 |
| Greg Dortch | $5,500 | 9.0 | 1.65 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 6.1% | 0.82 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,200 | 8.9 | 1.38 | 3.6 | 13.7 | 10.5% | 0.57 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,800 | 8.9 | 1.64 | 4.8 | 13.4 | 10.3% | 0.78 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,800 | 8.6 | 1.42 | 5.0 | 11.8 | 4.6% | 0.49 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,100 | 8.3 | 1.31 | 4.4 | 11.6 | 2.6% | 0.36 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,500 | 8.2 | 1.47 | 4.4 | 11.5 | 3.5% | 0.54 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,700 | 8.1 | 1.44 | 4.5 | 11.8 | 3.4% | 0.51 |
| Jahan Dotson | $5,500 | 7.9 | 1.42 | 4.2 | 11.6 | 3.9% | 0.53 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,800 | 7.8 | 1.36 | 3.2 | 12.5 | 7.6% | 0.53 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,100 | 7.8 | 1.57 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 5.6% | 0.75 |
| A.J. Green | $5,400 | 7.5 | 1.35 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 4.8% | 0.44 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 7.4 | 1.36 | 3.2 | 11.3 | 4.6% | 0.51 |
| Richie James | $5,500 | 7.4 | 1.33 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 3.2% | 0.43 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,600 | 7.4 | 1.14 | 4.2 | 10.4 | 1.4% | 0.11 |
| Ashton Dulin | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.39 | 3.6 | 11.0 | 3.3% | 0.52 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,400 | 7.2 | 1.32 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 5.3% | 0.49 |
| Zay Jones | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.25 | 2.7 | 10.8 | 3.6% | 0.40 |
| Chris Olave | $5,300 | 7.1 | 1.26 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 1.9% | 0.42 |
| Nico Collins | $5,100 | 6.9 | 1.34 | 3.3 | 10.2 | 2.1% | 0.44 |
| Corey Davis | $5,900 | 6.9 | 1.11 | 3.1 | 10.4 | 2.9% | 0.29 |
| Ben Skowronek | $5,100 | 6.8 | 1.32 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 2.0% | 0.44 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.14 | 2.8 | 9.8 | 1.5% | 0.31 |
| Russell Gage | $6,100 | 6.4 | 1.06 | 3.0 | 9.6 | 0.9% | 0.16 |
| Noah Brown | $5,200 | 6.4 | 1.27 | 3.4 | 9.6 | 1.0% | 0.35 |
| Devin Duvernay | $5,900 | 6.2 | 1.04 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 0.12 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.17 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 1.9% | 0.33 |
| Garrett Wilson | $5,400 | 5.6 | 1.05 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 0.21 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $7,400 | 12.1 | 1.67 | 7.6 | 17.5 | 36.4% | 0.84 |
| Darren Waller | $6,800 | 11.3 | 1.64 | 6.4 | 15.7 | 27.8% | 0.80 |
| Kyle Pitts | $5,900 | 10.0 | 1.63 | 5.0 | 14.8 | 24.1% | 0.84 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,300 | 9.3 | 1.70 | 5.9 | 12.1 | 11.2% | 0.91 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,700 | 9.3 | 1.63 | 5.4 | 13.3 | 16.4% | 0.79 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,200 | 8.3 | 1.60 | 4.4 | 12.1 | 12.0% | 0.73 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,600 | 7.7 | 1.42 | 4.4 | 11.9 | 10.1% | 0.57 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $5,100 | 7.7 | 1.45 | 4.3 | 10.9 | 7.0% | 0.56 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,400 | 7.6 | 1.40 | 4.1 | 10.9 | 7.4% | 0.46 |
| Logan Thomas | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.36 | 3.3 | 10.4 | 5.7% | 0.45 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | 6.0 | 1.26 | 3.0 | 9.4 | 4.1% | 0.37 |
| Hayden Hurst | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.13 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 2.3% | 0.19 |
| Noah Fant | $5,000 | 5.6 | 1.11 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 2.7% | 0.27 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,100 | 5.5 | 1.09 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 4.1% | 0.29 |
| David Njoku | $4,900 | 5.3 | 1.11 | 1.8 | 9.0 | 2.6% | 0.31 |
| Juwan Johnson | $4,500 | 5.1 | 1.13 | 1.9 | 8.3 | 1.9% | 0.31 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.15 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 3.4% | 0.30 |
| Kylen Granson | $4,700 | 5.1 | 1.02 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 1.5% | 0.24 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,100 | 4.9 | 0.93 | 1.7 | 7.8 | 1.5% | 0.15 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,700 | 4.9 | 1.09 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 2.3% | 0.29 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,700 | 4.8 | 1.04 | 1.7 | 8.1 | 1.4% | 0.26 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,200 | 4.6 | 0.87 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 2.7% | 0.20 |
| Cameron Brate | $4,900 | 4.4 | 0.91 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 0.5% | 0.15 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,100 | 4.3 | 1.04 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 1.2% | 0.32 |
