NFL

Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Presented by Amazon Prime Video

Which teams saw the biggest shifts in power ratings after Week 1's conclusion?

Everyone has their own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them take computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.

But numberFire's power rankings do just that.

Two teams with key wins in Week 1 come from the AFC West and square off on Thursday Night Football in Week 2: the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Making that game even more exciting is the Prime Video Pick'Em contest offered by Amazon Prime Video and FanDuel. Be sure to answer 10 questions about this week's Thursday Night Football matchup -- for free -- for a chance to win a share of $15,000 in cash prizes. Make your picks now.

Thursday Night Football Amazon Prime Video Pick'Em

Back to the rankings. Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.

numberFire's NFL Power Rankings

Team Record nERD nERD
Rank
Rank
Change
Playoff
Odds
xWins
Next 3
Bills1-09.491094.9%2.16
Buccaneers1-07.942091.7%2.02
Chiefs1-07.243080.6%1.68
Chargers1-04.994376.4%2.03
Ravens1-03.375571.5%1.55
Broncos0-12.426346.2%1.93
Dolphins1-02.1071353.9%1.20
Colts0-0-11.928462.3%1.62
Vikings1-01.839969.3%1.73
Packers0-11.8210-565.1%1.58
49ers0-11.7211-565.3%1.75
Bengals0-11.4412-136.0%1.71
Eagles1-01.2413283.2%1.80
Titans0-10.9914240.5%1.23
Rams0-10.7415-1153.5%1.68
Browns1-00.7316-244.4%1.98
Cowboys0-10.1217-939.0%1.67
Saints1-0-0.2818345.6%1.32
Steelers1-0-1.3219329.0%1.63
Raiders0-1-1.4020-318.8%1.35
Commanders1-0-1.5521239.4%1.40
Cardinals0-1-1.7122-924.7%1.43
Patriots0-1-1.7523-418.1%1.17
Bears1-0-2.0824329.8%1.48
Giants1-0-3.4325-131.6%1.47
Panthers0-1-3.5126016.4%1.38
Lions0-1-4.1227-216.9%1.28
Seahawks1-0-4.5628119.4%1.25
Falcons0-1-4.652929.0%1.11
Jaguars0-1-4.8130-211.9%0.74
Texans0-0-1-5.3531111.0%0.78
Jets0-1-5.7432-24.6%0.88


The Kansas City Chiefs did not move up in the nERD rankings at all and remain at third but did increase their nERD by 2.20 points after making the Arizona Cardinals look like afterthoughts. In his first week without Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and 5 touchdowns with no sacks or interceptions. The Chiefs' Super Bowl odds increased to 11.8%, up 3.8 points, according to our algorithm.

Just behind the Chiefs in the rankings are the Los Angeles Chargers, although the power ratings themselves show a gap between the two. The Chargers' nERD of 4.99 puts them in a tier of their own behind the top three teams -- but a cut above any other squad. Los Angeles vaulted up three spots in the rankings after holding off the Las Vegas Raiders 24-19. Their playoff odds jumped to 76.4%, a 17.1-point increase and the third-highest jump of any team in the NFL.

Speaking of LA, the Rams' slow start on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 dropped their nERD score by 3.33 points and their playoff odds to 53.5% in a difficult division. That was the largest nERD decrease of any team in the NFL and also the largest rankings decrease of any squad (11 spots). The next-worst nERD drops belong to the Cardinals (-3.21), the Dallas Cowboys (-2.70), the San Francisco 49ers (-2.05), the Green Bay Packers (-2.04), and the Raiders (-2.01). That's a big hit for the NFC collectively.

I have to call out the huge jump in rankings for the Miami Dolphins, who moved from 20th to 7th and increased their nERD from +0.16 to +2.10. A tough stretch awaits them, however. They play the Baltimore Ravens (5th in nERD), the Buffalo Bills (1st), and the Cincinnati Bengals (12th) next.

Besides the Chiefs, only one team increased their nERD score by at least 2.0 points after Week 1: the Chicago Bears (+2.15) after they beat the 49ers in rainy conditions at home. Their playoff odds are still just 29.8%, but winnable games exist in their next three against the Packers (10th in nERD), the Houston Texans (31st), and the New York Giants (25th). We could see a 3-1 start in Chicago.