NFL Preseason Betting Guide: Week 2 Betting Trends to Target
Betting on preseason games requires a bit more nuance than regular season NFL matchups. Historical preseason betting trends can help get our bearing, but from there, we'll need to track news about playing time.
What do the trends and news point to? Where is there value on the NFL betting lines at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Panthers at Patriots
Patriots Moneyline (-160)
The expectation for this game, at least according to Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule, is that Carolina will rely primarily on their backups; he expects the New England Patriots to play their starters.
In addition to the playing news, these two teams got into a fight during joint practices this week, and while I try to look just at the data here, something tells me New England would like to win this one as a result.
New England has the fourth-best point differential in the preseason since 2019.
Since 2019, 3.0-point favorites are 8-7-2 against the spread and 10-7 outright.
Texans at Rams
The spread here is really interesting.
Home-field advantage isn't really important in the preseason, but it's noteworthy that road teams favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points since 2019 are 13-5 outright and 11-7 against the spread.
Buccaneers at Titans
Tennessee is favored by 3.0 points, and that's a good range for favorites recently, as we mentioned already for the Patriots.
These two teams combined for some of the weaker offensive efficiency in the opening week of the preseason based on quarterback play. For the Buccaneers, yes, Blaine Gabbert went 5 of 5 for 65 yards and a score, but Kyle Trask churned out -1.2 EPA on 35 drop backs.
For the Titans, Malik Willis (-0.06 EPA per drop back) and Logan Woodside (-0.18) combine for under-friendly play, as well.
Ravens at Cardinals
Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens' historic win streak in the preseason has reached 21 games, yes, but this is a pretty heavy spread. Since 2019, underdogs of 5.0 to 6.0 points in the preseason are just 4-9 outright but 9-4 against the spread.
Third-string quarterback Anthony Brown did good work for the Ravens in the opener (10 of 13 for 117 yards), yet Trace McSorley also played well for the Arizona Cardinals. McSorley was 13 of 22 but for 163 yards (7.4 per attempt) and a touchdown.
I know it's the Ravens, but historically speaking, we should be taking the points in this matchup.