NFL Betting Guide: Preseason Week 1 (Thursday)

Betting on preseason games requires a bit more nuance than regular season NFL matchups. Historical preseason betting trends can help get our bearing, but from there, we'll need to track news about playing time.

What do the trends and news point to? Where is there value on the NFL betting lines at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Giants at Patriots

Quick Game Notes
Mac Jones and the New England Patriots starters aren't expected to play in tonight's game. For the New York Giants, head coach Brian Daboll has said it's going to be more of an individual basis and that all healthy players will get some run.

Giants Moneyline (-140)
Giants -2.5 (-110)
The experience edge should belong to the Giants in this matchup as a result of the news, and we have some trends to back up a slight road favorite in the preseason.

Since getting FanDuel Sportsbook odds on preseason games (since 2019), we have seen 2.5-point road favorites churn out an 8-1 record outright while going 7-2 against the spread (while posting a +6.8-point differential against the spread).

I'm not seeing enough value on the over/under, though unders on preseason games with totals between 34.0 and 35.0 are 10-6. It's uncertain how much time the Giants' starters will play. A full half would make the over a real possibility.

Titans at Ravens

Quick Game Notes
The Baltimore Ravens will put their 20-game preseason win streak on the line tonight at home against the Tennessee Titans. Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews -- among a few other starters -- won't play.

For the Titans, the big note is that we'll likely see extended run from rookie quarterback Malik Willis.

Ravens Moneyline (-175)
Under 32.5 (-110)
The Ravens' win streak doesn't seem likely to end tonight against a rookie quarterback. That their moneyline is -175 without key starters is quite telling.

Since 2019, teams favored by 3.5 points have a 55.0% win rate, and the Ravens are 7-0 against the spread since 2019.

Without the Ravens' starters and with minimal starter time for the Titans (based on all indications thus far), the under seems rather ripe. Baltimore has allowed just 7.9 points per game in the preseason since 2019, and the Titans have let up just 13.7 under head coach Mike Vrabel in this span.