NFL
Fantasy Football: The Impact of Team-Level Efficiency and Volume on Individual Player Upside
How often are elite fantasy football running backs tied to bad run blocking? How much does team volume matter for wide receivers and tight ends?

Every NFL offseason, we dig into dozens of individual player situations and team changes in order to examine expectations for fantasy football purposes.

No matter which new stats we are granted over the offseason, a few -- very important -- constants can kickstart the process for us. Sure, a player may be due for regression or a bigger workload, but what if he's playing on an offense expected to be one of the worst in the league? Wouldn't it help for us to know just how often top-12 performers play on top-level offenses?

I think these are helpful questions that can help keep us centered on expectations for players moving forward. Of course, we'll never be dealing in absolutes, and there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule every single year.

That said, I wanted to foreground some of these high-level team trends and look at how often top-12, top-24, and top-36 results are tied to certain thresholds of team stats.

Here are some reference points using fantasy football results from 2012 through 2021 (a full 10 seasons that coincide with an uptick in passing efficiency in the NFL).

Running Backs

Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 running backs have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.

Pass-to-Run-Ratio

Pass-to-
Run Ratio
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 16.7% 20.8% 25.0% 37.5%
RB13 to RB24 19.3% 21.8% 30.3% 28.6%
RB25 to RB36 30.8% 25.6% 25.6% 17.9%


Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Pass
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 34.2% 27.5% 22.5% 15.8%
RB13 to RB24 24.4% 28.6% 21.8% 25.2%
RB25 to RB36 26.5% 18.8% 34.2% 20.5%


Adjusted Sack Rate

Adjusted
Sack Rate
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 31.7% 30.8% 21.7% 15.8%
RB13 to RB24 31.1% 17.6% 27.7% 23.5%
RB25 to RB36 29.9% 29.1% 18.8% 22.2%


Rushing Plays

Run Plays Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 35.8% 30.0% 20.0% 14.2%
RB13 to RB24 27.7% 30.3% 22.7% 19.3%
RB25 to RB36 20.5% 23.9% 22.2% 33.3%


Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Rush
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 42.5% 30.8% 20.0% 6.7%
RB13 to RB24 20.2% 27.7% 31.9% 20.2%
RB25 to RB36 18.8% 26.5% 18.8% 35.9%


Adjusted Line Yards

Adjusted
Line Yards
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
RB1 to RB12 46.7% 26.7% 12.5% 14.2%
RB13 to RB24 20.2% 31.1% 27.7% 21.0%
RB25 to RB36 25.6% 20.5% 29.1% 24.8%


Key Observations:
- 42.5% of RB1 seasons came while on teams with top-eight rushing efficiency metrics; 73.3% were on top-half teams.
- Just 6.7% came from bottom-eight rushing teams. (Efficiency matters.)
- Offensive line play obviously helps: 46.7% of RB1 seasons came while on teams with a top-eight mark in adjusted line yards.
- Just 15.8% of RB1 seasons came from bottom-eight overall offenses.
- 37.5% of RB1 seasons came from teams ranked bottom-eight in pass-to-run ratio.
- 61.7% of RB1 seasons came from top-half adjusted passing offenses; 62.5% were on top-half lines by adjusted sack rate. Team efficiency helps reach peak upside.

The Bottom Line: Volume alone isn't often enough -- at least in terms of being a top-12 option -- if the offensive situation for RBs is terrible.

Wide Receiver

Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 wide receivers have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.

Pass-to-Run-Ratio

Pass-to-
Run Ratio
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 35.0% 25.8% 26.7% 12.5%
WR13 to WR24 24.4% 30.3% 24.4% 21.0%
WR25 to WR36 28.8% 26.3% 21.2% 23.7%


Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted
Offense (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 40.8% 36.7% 14.2% 8.3%
WR13 to WR24 28.6% 23.5% 27.7% 20.2%
WR25 to WR36 28.8% 29.7% 25.4% 16.1%


Passing Plays

Pass Plays Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 35.0% 31.7% 18.3% 15.0%
WR13 to WR24 28.6% 30.3% 22.7% 18.5%
WR25 to WR36 27.1% 28.0% 24.6% 20.3%


Adjusted Passing Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Pass
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 49.2% 29.2% 14.2% 7.5%
WR13 to WR24 29.4% 20.2% 31.1% 19.3%
WR25 to WR36 28.8% 32.2% 22.9% 16.1%


Adjusted Sack Rate

Adjusted
Sack Rate
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 44.2% 23.3% 13.3% 19.2%
WR13 to WR24 26.9% 26.1% 26.9% 20.2%
WR25 to WR36 25.4% 28.8% 27.1% 18.6%


Rushing Plays

Run Plays Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 17.5% 29.2% 25.8% 27.5%
WR13 to WR24 21.0% 29.4% 27.7% 21.8%
WR25 to WR36 23.7% 22.0% 25.4% 28.8%


Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Rush
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 30.8% 20.8% 26.7% 21.7%
WR13 to WR24 17.6% 26.1% 30.3% 26.1%
WR25 to WR36 26.3% 28.0% 18.6% 27.1%


Adjusted Line Yards

Adjusted
Line Yards
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
WR1 to WR12 31.7% 30.0% 25.0% 13.3%
WR13 to WR24 25.2% 17.6% 30.3% 26.9%
WR25 to WR36 30.5% 21.2% 18.6% 29.7%


Key Observations:
- A full 66.7% of WR1s played on teams in the top half of the NFL in passing plays.
- An astounding 77.5% of WR1 seasons came from teams in the top half of the NFL in overall efficiency.
- More directly: nearly half of all top-12 receiver seasons (49.2%) came from top-eight offenses.
- WR1s played on efficient rushing offenses (30.8% were on top-eight teams) with good run blocking (31.7%). Good teams generate fantasy points.
- Volume and efficiency help; if you have neither, be wary about a receiver's ceiling.

The Bottom Line: Passing volume definitely helps WRs, but peak seasons aren't often tied to inefficient passing offenses. That should break ties between Tier 2 and Tier 3 receivers come draft time.

Tight Ends

Here are how the teams for top-12, top-24, and top-36 tight ends have ranked since 2012 in various overall stats. I'll post the tables and then summate.

Pass-to-Run-Ratio

Pass-to-
Run Ratio
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 31.9% 25.2% 17.6% 25.2%
TE13 to TE24 25.8% 25.0% 25.0% 24.2%
TE25 to TE36 21.8% 18.5% 28.6% 31.1%


Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted
Offense (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 36.1% 31.1% 22.7% 10.1%
TE13 to TE24 20.8% 28.3% 23.3% 27.5%
TE25 to TE36 22.7% 26.1% 27.7% 23.5%


Passing Plays

Pass Plays Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 35.3% 24.4% 17.6% 22.7%
TE13 to TE24 28.3% 24.2% 23.3% 24.2%
TE25 to TE36 21.0% 24.4% 25.2% 29.4%


Adjusted Passing Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Passi
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 38.7% 26.9% 26.9% 7.6%
TE13 to TE24 19.2% 29.2% 22.5% 29.2%
TE25 to TE36 24.4% 26.1% 23.5% 26.1%


Adjusted Sack Rate

Adjusted
Sack Rate
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 31.1% 34.5% 22.7% 11.8%
TE13 to TE24 28.3% 20.8% 25.0% 25.8%
TE25 to TE36 25.2% 19.3% 22.7% 32.8%


Rushing Plays

Run Plays Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 26.1% 21.8% 23.5% 28.6%
TE13 to TE24 27.5% 25.8% 21.7% 25.0%
TE25 to TE36 28.6% 28.6% 26.1% 16.8%


Adjusted Rushing Efficiency (NEP)

Adjusted Rush
Efficiency (NEP)
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 25.2% 25.2% 24.4% 25.2%
TE13 to TE24 26.7% 27.5% 21.7% 24.2%
TE25 to TE36 30.3% 22.7% 26.9% 20.2%


Adjusted Line Yards

Adjusted
Line Yards
Top 8 9 to 16 17 to 24 Bottom 8
TE1 to TE12 30.3% 22.7% 26.1% 21.0%
TE13 to TE24 27.5% 26.7% 22.5% 23.3%
TE25 to TE36 28.6% 24.4% 26.1% 21.0%


Key Observations:
- Just 10.1% of TE1s came from bottom-eight offenses; 36.1% were on top-eight teams, and 67.2% in total were on top-half teams.
- Worse yet, just 7.6% of TE1s were on bottom-eight passing offenses.
- Good lines seem to benefit TEs: 65.5% of TE1s played on teams in the top half in adjusted line yards; perhaps they aren't required to block as much.
- Passing volume helps TEs reach peaks; 35.3% of TE1s played on teams in the top eight in passing plays.

The Bottom Line: Elite TEs play on teams with very efficient offenses with good lines; passing volume helps, but efficiency matters more.

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