John Metchie III to the Texans Tells Us a Lot About Houston's Future

The Texans chose Metchie III over a quarterback, so it looks like they're set with Davis Mills. What does Metchie offer the lowly Texans in 2022 and beyond?

The Houston Texans are apparently committed to Davis Mills. Despite just one quarterback being drafted by pick 44 in the 2022 NFL Draft, they opted for a wide receiver instead: John Metchie III.

Statistically, Metchie leaves something to be desired as a prospect as his college dominator rating (29th percentile), yards per catch (14th) and breakout age (33rd) are all lacking, according to the numbers at PlayerProfiler.

He did, however, post a solid 26.9% final-season target share, which rates as a 79th-percentile clip. He recorded at least 916 receiving yards in each of his final two seasons at Alabama and had to scrap with DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle for targets in one of those campaigns.

What's the expectation for Metchie in Houston?

Player Comparisons

numberFire's Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Metchie’s. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.

RankJohn Metchie III Profile ComparisonsSimilarity
1Dante Pettis95.2%
2Ryan Broyles91.2%
3Randall Cobb90.9%
4Curtis Samuel90.7%
5Phillip Dorsett90.5%
6Mecole Hardman89.8%
7Kadarius Toney89.0%
8Markus Wheaton88.8%
9Percy Harvin88.7%
10Steve Smith88.5%

Gdula's Take: Metchie, who suffered an ACL tear in the SEC title game, is considered by film scouts as a polished route-runner, but that didn't translate to big production at Alabama. It's hard to have great target and production shares at Bama, yet Metchie is also small (5'11" and 187 pounds). We're looking at a player whose ceiling seems low.

John Metchie's 2022 Fantasy Football Projection

Gdula’s initial projections for Metchie include a partial-season projection for 25 catches on 39 targets for 292 yards and 1.4 touchdowns, making him the WR96 for the season. Until we know more about when he'll be game-day ready, it's a wait-and-see type of projection.

The best signal here is that the Texans feel confident in moving forward with Davis Mills, confident enough to take a chance on a receiver who will need time to return to full health. Metchie's route-running ability led to the 44th overall pick, suggesting media-based mock drafts were too low on the receiver.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Texans are listed at +22000 to win the Super Bowl and +2600 to win the AFC South, and they have a win total projection of 3.5 (albeit with -145 odds on the over).