Chris Olave to the Saints: Olave Is a High-Floor Prospect Who Fills a Need
The New Orleans Saints have a need for playmakers on the outside, and they attacked that need by drafting Chris Olave 11th overall in the first round of the draft, trading up to take the former Ohio State Buckeye.
Despite never having a 1,000-yard season at Ohio State, Olave grades out in the 86th percentile for breakout age (19.2) and in the 76th percentile for final-season college target share (26.0%), per PlayerProfiler. He posted at least 729 receiving yards in each of his final three campaigns in Columbus.
What kind of prospect is he?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's Brandon Gdula breaks down Olave's profile and gives a top comparison.
"His route running should keep his floor high."@gdula13 gives his insight on the new Saints weapon, Chris Olave ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/sOIFkj16cV
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 29, 2022
Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Olave’s. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Rank | Chris Olave Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marqise Lee | 93.5% |
| 2 | Will Fuller | 92.6% |
| 3 | John Ross | 92.5% |
| 4 | Garrett Wilson | 91.1% |
| 5 | Brandin Cooks | 90.4% |
| 6 | Jerry Jeudy | 90.0% |
| 7 | Corey Coleman | 89.7% |
| 8 | Odell Beckham Jr | 89.6% |
| 9 | Vincent Brown | 89.3% |
| 10 | Mario Manningham | 88.8% |
Gdula's Take: Olave profiles more with elite safety than elite upside. He never cracked 1,000 yards in college but did have solid touchdown totals. What you'd really like to see is a huge final season, at least, but we didn't get anything specifically dominant. With subpar size, he'll need to rely on every bit of his route-running and top-end speed to break into the elite tier of fantasy football receivers.
Chris Olave's 2022 Fantasy Football Projection
Gdula’s initial projections for Olave include 55 receptions, 664 yards and 3.6 scores, making him the PPR WR64 for the season.
Michael Thomas sits atop the target totem pole in New Orleans, but the role of number-two wideout is wide open. Olave will likely surpass Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway for that gig at some point in 2022. It remains to be seen just how many targets there will be leftover after Thomas and Alvin Kamara get theirs.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Saints are listed at +4400 to win the Super Bowl and +500 to take the NFC South, and they have a win total projection of 7.5 on FOX Bet.
