We've said it a lot over the last two weeks: Super Bowl XLIX is going to be close.
But that'll only happen if both the Patriots and Seahawks execute as they did throughout the entire 2014 NFL season. Let's not forget that last year's big game saw a Vegas spread of -2.5 in favor of the Broncos. And we know how that turned out. (*fart noise*)
We can only assume -- or at least hope -- that the real New England and Seattle teams will show up on Sunday. Because analytically, this game could not be tighter. And who doesn't want to watch a close championship game?
The Journey
Both New England and Seattle enter Super Bowl XLIX (If you're curious, I'm pronouncing this "ex-licks") with similar regular-season resumes. Each team struggled at the beginning of the year, and many thought or assumed they wouldn't make it this far. They both ended the season strong, snagging one seeds in their conference playoffs. And both teams actually hit a wall during the regular season against the exact same opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs.
The chart below is a snapshot of their journey -- a look at how they moved through the regular season, in playoff odds form.
The main reason New England had better odds throughout the season was because their division was weaker. Seattle, on the other hand, had to fight off a surging Arizona Cardinals team and a 49ers squad that was talented enough to hang around for most of the year.
New England's lowest point in the season came after a Week 4 Monday night loss -- a beatdown -- to the Kansas City Chiefs. After the game, their probability of making the playoffs sat at a 17th-ranked 34.2 percent.
Seattle's loss to the Chiefs in Week 11 brought their playoff odds to a measly 45.6 percent, close to their worst playoff probability during the season.
Who knew appetizers?), and we'll get to that in a second, but Wilson's Passing NEP went from 74.66 last year to 47.65 this season, as his per drop back NEP dipped by 0.07 Net Expected Points (0.17 to 0.10).
When adjusted for strength of opponent, the Seahawks' passing offense was an average 15th in the NFL this year. The Giants and Bills, according to our numbers, were better.
Seattle's receivers didn't exactly help Wilson, who, again, was a top-10 quarterback in 2014 when you factor in rushing. In terms of Reception NEP, which measures the number of points added on catches only, numberFire Live.