NFL
NFL Draft: Player Comparisons for the 2022 Wide Receiver Class
Based on production, athleticism, and draft equity, who do the top players in this class compare to from NFL history?

A lot goes into scouting NFL prospects.

Of course, exactly how much we can balance the value of film evaluation and statistics will forever remain an unsolvable debate.

However, we can much more easily leverage the quantifiable side of prospect evaluation to see which incoming NFL players are most similar to historical prospects.

That's why I built out player similarity scores to add to my draft model.

Now that we have 40-yard dash times for (most of) the 2022 NFL receiver class that was invited to the NFL Combine, we can get a good feel for how each prospect comps to past prospects.

To clarify, these are based 0% on playstyle or how much a player reminds me of NFL players and 100% on measurable variables such as height, weight, draft equity (or expected draft equity for the incoming rookie class), breakout ages, height-adjusted speed, and various production metrics from their collegiate careers.

Let's get to it.

Players are listed in order of their consensus big board rank via NFLMockDraftDatabase, which also acts as an estimation of their eventual draft slot in the comparison process. Players with a top-200 big board rank are included.

Treylon Burks, Arkansas

Big Board Rank: 12

Rank Treylon Burks Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Dez Bryant 92.1%
2 Laviska Shenault Jr 91.3%
3 Demaryius Thomas 89.8%
4 Jordy Nelson 88.3%
5 Andre Johnson 88.2%
6 Larry Fitzgerald 88.1%
7 Julio Jones 87.3%
8 Alshon Jeffery 87.3%
9 JJ Arcega-Whiteside 86.6%
10 Rashod Bateman 86.5%


Treylon Burks measured in at 6'2" and 225 pounds despite playing a majority of his snaps from the slot at Arkansas. He logged a 4.55-second 40-yard dash for a height-adjusted speed score of 106.4. His comps are mostly elite, as expected. He's got stellar size, production, and speed. At best, he can transition more to the outside; at worst, he's an oversized slot receiver and a matchup problem.

Garrett Wilson, Ohio State

Big Board Rank: 14

Rank Garrett Wilson Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Will Fuller 95.0%
2 Percy Harvin 92.0%
3 Donnie Avery 90.3%
4 Chris Olave 90.0%
5 Diontae Johnson 89.0%
6 Odell Beckham Jr. 88.9%
7 Jerry Jeudy 88.6%
8 Harry Douglas 88.0%
9 Jahan Dotson 87.9%
10 Calvin Ridley 87.2%


Garrett Wilson at 6'0" and 183 pounds has an 11th-percentile weight score in my database but brings the promise of elite draft equity and efficiency, thus drawing comparisons to some of the game's recent best smaller, explosive receivers. Film analysis shows an ability to force missed tackles.

Drake London, USC

Big Board Rank: 17

Rank Drake London Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Mike Williams 93.6%
2 Larry Fitzgerald 92.6%
3 Calvin Johnson 91.8%
4 Kenny Britt 91.6%
5 Jordan Matthews 91.2%
6 Julio Jones 90.8%
7 Allen Robinson 90.4%
8 AJ Green 90.0%
9 Stephen Hill 89.8%
10 Jordy Nelson 89.5%


Drake London measured up at 6'4", 219 pounds to give him elite size marks. He broke out in his age-18 season at USC, and he has some stellar comps at the top end. He didn't run the 40, and speed concerns are in his profile. He's a basketball player for some added context.

Jameson Williams, Alabama

Big Board Rank: 19

Rank Jameson Williams Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Justin Jefferson 94.1%
2 Calvin Ridley 89.1%
3 Jerry Jeudy 87.6%
4 Will Fuller 86.6%
5 CeeDee Lamb 86.3%
6 Devin Smith 84.8%
7 Nelson Agholor 83.7%
8 DJ Chark 83.0%
9 Arrelious Benn 83.0%
10 Courtney Roby 82.8%


Jameson Williams
is apparently ahead of schedule with his recovery from a torn ACL. The potential here is high enough for teams to take him in the first round. We don't see a lot of players with low weights (189 pounds) and overall receiving market share maxes (21%) go that high, but any one of the top five here is a great comp to be drawing.

Chris Olave, Ohio State

Big Board Rank: 23

Rank Chris Olave Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Marqise Lee 94.3%
2 Garrett Wilson 90.1%
3 Will Fuller 89.8%
4 Corey Coleman 89.8%
5 AJ Jenkins 89.8%
6 Kendall Wright 89.6%
7 Percy Harvin 89.3%
8 Mario Manningham 89.1%
9 John Ross 89.0%
10 Tylan Wallace 88.8%


Chris Olave has a virtually identical quant profile to Marqise Lee (obviously) but profiles for better draft capital (23rd versus 39th). Olave's small at 6'0" and 187 pounds but checks the production boxes. His 4.39 speed equates to a 99.3 adjusted speed score; prospects who hit big in their first five seasons are at a 105.5, on average. Landing spot could be key for Olave. He has a playstyle comp of fellow Ohio State Buckeyes alum Terry McLaurin.

Jahan Dotson, Penn State

Big Board Rank: 31

Rank Jahan Dotson Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Donnie Avery 93.0%
2 Ryan Broyles 91.3%
3 Diontae Johnson 90.9%
4 Percy Harvin 90.2%
5 John Ross 89.6%
6 Sterling Shepard 89.0%
7 Marquise Brown 88.8%
8 John Brown 88.6%
9 Emmanuel Sanders 88.4%
10 Garrett Wilson 88.0%


Jahan Dotson is another smaller prospect at 5'11" and 178 pounds. Paired with a modest breakout age and a subpar adjusted forty time (4.43 for an adjusted speed score of 89.9) that ranks in the 17th percentile in my database. Dotson checks the production boxes, however. The Diontae Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders comps feel right.

David Bell, Purdue

Big Board Rank: 47

Rank David Bell Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Davante Adams 95.9%
2 DeAndre Hopkins 92.4%
3 Sammy Watkins 91.5%
4 Chris Godwin 91.5%
5 Anquan Boldin 90.5%
6 Michael Crabtree 90.4%
7 JuJu Smith-Schuster 89.9%
8 Torrey Smith 89.4%
9 Robert Woods 88.7%
10 DeVier Posey 88.1%


There are some huge hits at the top of the list for David Bell. He's honestly like a carbon copy of Davante Adams in terms of profile but broke out earlier and rated out as a little less athletic. Bell's adjusted speed score puts him in the 21st percentile; Adams' was 44th-percentile.

George Pickens, Georgia

Big Board Rank: 49

Rank George Pickens Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Justin Hunter 93.4%
2 Terrace Marshall Jr. 91.3%
3 Josh Reynolds 90.4%
4 Justyn Ross 88.1%
5 Denzel Mims 87.3%
6 Aaron Dobson 87.2%
7 DJ Chark 86.1%
8 Amon-Ra St. Brown 83.9%
9 Justin Jefferson 83.3%
10 Alec Pierce 83.1%


Ah, Justin Hunter. George Pickens has height at 6'3" but not necessarily weight (195) and broke out early without elite production metrics at an SEC school. That's very Hunter-esque. Consider pickens a long, outside receiver -- like a lot of the comps here.

Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky

Big Board Rank: 63

Rank Wan'Dale Robinson Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Tutu Atwell 95.4%
2 Tyler Lockett 92.3%
3 Andy Isabella 92.1%
4 Elijah Moore 91.6%
5 Rondale Moore 89.6%
6 Jamison Crowder 88.9%
7 Jaelon Darden 88.5%
8 John Brown 88.3%
9 TY Hilton 87.5%
10 D'Wayne Eskridge 86.7%


Wan'Dale Robinson ended up measuring in at 5'8" and 178 pounds, ranking him in the 1st and 5th percentile in my database, respectively. He's pretty locked in to some specific comps as a result. To be fair, Robinson had plenty of production and efficiency (90th-plus percentile ranks), but his 4.44-second 40-yard dash time results in a subpar adjusted speed score of 85.3 (10th percentile).

John Metchie III, Alabama

Big Board Rank: 64

Rank John Metchie III Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Markus Wheaton 93.2%
2 Randall Cobb 93.0%
3 Kyle Philips 91.8%
4 Dante Pettis 91.7%
5 Ryan Broyles 90.4%
6 Diontae Johnson 90.1%
7 Steve Smith 89.8%
8 Curtis Samuel 89.3%
9 Emmanuel Sanders 88.8%
10 Mecole Hardman 88.1%


John Metchie III
, like a lot of these prospects so far, is on the smaller end (5'11", 187 pounds -- both sub-20th-percentile rates) but was a pretty high-volume option at Alabama all things considered. His comps are hit-or-miss; he could fit well with a slot-needy team, however. He's also got an ACL tear to recover from.

Christian Watson, North Dakota State

Big Board Rank: 67

Rank Christian Watson Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Rueben Randle 92.6%
2 Denzel Mims 88.7%
3 DJ Chark 88.3%
4 Tamorrion Terry 88.0%
5 Michael Thomas 87.5%
6 Cooper Kupp 87.3%
7 J'Mon Moore 87.0%
8 Sidney Rice 87.0%
9 AJ Green 86.6%
10 Eric Decker 86.3%


Christian Watson
is big (6'4", 208) and put forth a stellar 4.36-second 40-yard dash for a height-adjusted speed score of 119.9 (96th percentile). He comps a bit strangely to most given the unique profile. He's already on the late side of 22 years old, as well.

Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama

Big Board Rank: 68

Rank Jalen Tolbert Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Nate Burleson 90.5%
2 Michael Gallup 90.5%
3 AJ Jenkins 90.5%
4 Dyami Brown 89.7%
5 Calvin Ridley 89.3%
6 Will Fuller 87.8%
7 Khalil Shakir 87.7%
8 Vincent Brown 87.7%
9 Marqise Lee 87.7%
10 Jared Abbrederis 87.6%


Jalen Tolbert
clocked in at 6'1" and 194 pounds, both shy of the 50th percentile marks at the position (especially the weight, checking in in the 32nd percentile). His 4.49 speed is also a bit disappointing once adjusted for his size. However, he's another player who undeniably produced within the context of his team at South Alabama. He's already 23.

Skyy Moore, Western Michigan

Big Board Rank: 79

Rank Skyy Moore Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Tyler Lockett 91.5%
2 Andy Isabella 91.1%
3 Khalil Shakir 90.8%
4 Corey Coleman 90.6%
5 D'Wayne Eskridge 89.6%
6 Marqise Lee 89.5%
7 Taywan Taylor 89.5%
8 Kendall Wright 89.0%
9 Stedman Bailey 88.9%
10 Vincent Brown 88.4%


I'm a big fan of Skyy Moore, who produced really well once adjusting for opponents faced in 2021. The production metrics are what separate Moore from other third-round grades, historically. He tested at the position average in terms of adjusted speed, which is fine, though he is only 5'10" and 195 pounds.

Khalil Shakir, Boise State

Big Board Rank: 81

Rank Khalil Shakir Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Vincent Brown 93.8%
2 Stefon Diggs 91.9%
3 Nate Burleson 91.6%
4 Marqise Lee 91.1%
5 Earl Bennett 91.0%
6 Jarvis Landry 90.9%
7 Skyy Moore 90.8%
8 Mario Manningham 90.4%
9 Tylan Wallace 90.4%
10 Greg Jennings 89.5%


Khalil Shakir
finished behind only Skyy Moore in adjusted receiving EPA in 2021, so I'm partial to him, as well. He does grade out on the small side at 6'0" and 196 pounds but has an 82nd-percentile yards per team attempt rating with a 57th-percentile adjusted speed score.

Justyn Ross, Clemson

Big Board Rank: 82

Rank Justyn Ross Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Bryan Edwards 89.3%
2 Alec Pierce 89.0%
3 Denzel Mims 89.0%
4 Terrace Marshall Jr. 88.2%
5 Justin Hunter 88.1%
6 George Pickens 88.1%
7 Austin Pettis 87.3%
8 Aaron Dobson 86.6%
9 Nico Collins 86.5%
10 J'Mon Moore 86.2%


Back to a big school prospect, Justyn Ross is also a big player at 6'4", 205 pounds. Ross broke out before turning 19, a fantastic sign for someone going to such a big program. He didn't run the 40 at the NFL Combine and underwent spinal surgery that cost him the 2020 season.

Alec Pierce, Cincinnati

Big Board Rank: 104

Rank Alec Pierce Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Austin Pettis 90.6%
2 Seth Williams 90.4%
3 Nico Collins 90.1%
4 Bryan Edwards 90.0%
5 Aaron Dobson 89.4%
6 Justyn Ross 89.0%
7 Cody Latimer 88.6%
8 Josh Malone 88.5%
9 J'Mon Moore 88.1%
10 Denzel Mims 88.0%


Alec Pierce
has the athleticism we want (his 4.41-second 40-yard dash at 6'3" and 211 pounds puts him in the 90th percentile in my database). The production metrics are questionable.

Kyle Philips, UCLA

Big Board Rank: 114

Rank Kyle Philips Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Markus Wheaton 94.1%
2 Bo Melton 92.6%
3 Lavelle Hawkins 91.8%
4 John Metchie III 91.8%
5 Emmanuel Sanders 90.9%
6 Dazz Newsome 90.8%
7 Randall Cobb 90.5%
8 Rashad Greene 89.7%
9 James Proche 89.5%
10 Shi Smith 89.3%


A better-than-average breakout age and a big receiving share are what we can cling to with Kyle Philips. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash at with already small frame is a tough look, though. He's got an eighth-percentile height-adjusted speed score in my database.

Calvin Austin III, Memphis

Big Board Rank: 118

Rank Calvin Austin III Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Jarius Wright 94.5%
2 Ryan Switzer 93.6%
3 Keke Coutee 91.7%
4 Jalen Saunders 90.5%
5 Isaiah McKenzie 88.5%
6 Steve Smith 88.4%
7 Jacoby Ford 88.0%
8 Jakeem Grant 87.9%
9 Aldrick Robinson 87.3%
10 De'Anthony Thomas 87.3%


Calvin Austin III is in the 1st percentile in height (5'8") and weight (170 pounds). He has a 52nd-percentile output in yards per team attempt and an average reception share. The 4.32-second 40-yard dash loses some luster in such a small package, historically.

Romeo Doubs, Nevada

Big Board Rank: 124

Rank Romeo Doubs Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Dez Fitzpatrick 96.5%
2 Tre'Quan Smith 91.9%
3 Jerricho Cotchery 91.7%
4 Demarcus Robinson 91.4%
5 Marvin Jones 90.6%
6 KeeSean Johnson 89.3%
7 Domenik Hixon 88.8%
8 Cooper Kupp 87.9%
9 Quintez Cephus 87.8%
10 Tajae Sharpe 87.8%


Romeo Doubs is tall enough at 6'2" to draw comps to some downfield players in recent history. He didn't run the 40, but he did record 12 downfield catches, according to PFF, ranking 25th in the nation. He also hauled in 9 contested catches (53rd).

Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech

Big Board Rank: 142

Rank Erik Ezukanma Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Jordan Payton 95.4%
2 Donovan Peoples-Jones 92.0%
3 Josh Palmer 91.6%
4 Amara Darboh 91.2%
5 Ricardo Louis 90.9%
6 Brian Hartline 90.6%
7 Chad Hansen 90.3%
8 Austin Pettis 90.2%
9 Tandon Doss 90.0%
10 Josh Imatorbhebhe 89.6%


Erik Ezukanma has size (6'2", 209) but lags behind in all production and quality metrics (breakout age and draft equity expectations).

Bo Melton, Rutgers

Big Board Rank: 162

Rank Bo Melton Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Antonio Brown 94.5%
2 Kyle Philips 92.6%
3 Lavelle Hawkins 91.6%
4 Markus Wheaton 89.8%
5 Kyle Williams 89.2%
6 Jerrel Jernigan 89.0%
7 Dazz Newsome 88.4%
8 James Proche 88.0%
9 Jeremy Kerley 87.7%
10 Randall Cobb 87.3%


Bo Melton broke out in his age-19 season and put forth above-average receiving market share numbers overall. His speed (4.34 seconds at 5'11 and 189 pounds) works out to a 103.6 height-adjusted speed score, giving him a plus check in that category.

Ty Fryfogle, Indiana

Big Board Rank: 178

Rank Ty Fryfogle Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Olabisi Johnson 90.9%
2 Quintez Cephus 90.7%
3 Chad Hansen 90.5%
4 Kevin Dorsey 90.4%
5 Velus Jones Jr. 90.3%
6 Jordan Payton 90.0%
7 Frank Darby 89.2%
8 Quinton Patton 89.1%
9 Mike Thomas 88.6%
10 Andre Caldwell 88.4%


The only positive check in Ty Fryfogle's profile is weight (204), and he's close in height (6'1", 47th percentile). The production metrics lag overall. The silver lining: he has 40th-percentile-plus marks in yards per team attempt and heigh-adjusted speed (4.53-second 40-yard dash).

Velus Jones Jr., Tennessee

Big Board Rank: 185

Rank Velus Jones Jr. Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Cornell Powell 91.7%
2 Ty Fryfogle 90.3%
3 Olabisi Johnson 89.5%
4 Quinton Patton 88.8%
5 Dwayne Harris 88.7%
6 Kealoha Pilares 88.3%
7 Frank Darby 87.8%
8 Kawaan Baker 87.8%
9 ArDarius Stewart 87.5%
10 KJ Hill 87.5%


Velus Jones Jr. is probably going to have a wide range of draft grades, depending on if or how age is accounted for and how much he's expected to move from special teams to offense. Jones Jr. will be 25 in May, making his 116.6 height-adjusted speed score a little less impressive.

Reggie Roberson Jr., SMU

Big Board Rank: 190

Rank Reggie Roberson Jr. Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 LaVon Brazill 93.7%
2 Shelton Gibson 93.6%
3 Jalen Nailor 92.1%
4 Dazz Newsome 92.0%
5 Robert Herron 91.7%
6 James Proche 90.1%
7 TJ Jones 89.4%
8 Terry Godwin 89.1%
9 Tavarres King 88.9%
10 Shi Smith 88.9%


Reggie Roberson Jr.'s most impressive rating is his max yards per team attempt (48th percentile). He tore his ACL in 2020 and had broken out before then, so we can forgive elevated age (24 and a half) a bit in that regard.

Danny Gray, SMU

Big Board Rank: 192

Rank Danny Gray Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Tre Nixon 94.9%
2 KJ Hill 91.0%
3 Shelton Gibson 90.7%
4 Tavarres King 90.3%
5 Terry Godwin 89.7%
6 Darius Slayton 89.7%
7 Braylon Sanders 89.0%
8 Keshawn Martin 88.6%
9 Tyreek Hill 88.3%
10 Slade Bolden 88.3%


Danny Gray put forth a nice 69th-percentile adjusted speed score at 6'0", 186 pounds with his 4.33-second 40-yard dash. The small size and lack of production earns him some modest-at-best comps, though Tyreek Hill makes the list.

Slade Bolden, Alabama

Big Board Rank: 193

Rank Slade Bolden Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Braylon Sanders 94.4%
2 Kaelin Clay 93.9%
3 Ray-Ray McCloud 93.2%
4 Freddie Swain 91.2%
5 Demetric Felton 90.8%
6 KJ Hill 90.5%
7 Hunter Renfrow89.5%
8 Keshawn Martin89.4%
9 Danny Gray89.3%
10 Reggie Roberson Jr.88.1%


Overall, Slade Bolden ranks in the sixth percentile in my prospect model. His 4.66-second 40-yard dash gives him a 2nd-percentile adjusted speed score.

Dai'Jean Dixon, Nicholls

Big Board Rank: 195

Rank Dai'Jean Dixon Profile Comparisons Similarity
1 Gabriel Davis 88.8%
2 J'Mon Moore 88.0%
3 Darnell Mooney 88.0%
4 Seth Williams 87.9%
5 Damonte Coxie 87.7%
6 Devin Street 87.2%
7 Marvin McNutt 86.8%
8 Austin Watkins 86.6%
9 Sage Surratt 86.5%
10 Demarcus Robinson 86.2%


Dai'Jean Dixon is an FCS prospect from Nicholls with a lot of fun in his profile. He's 6'3", 205. He broke out at age 19. He dominated at a small school (75th-percentile receiving market share). The bad? He did it all at a small school, the draft equity expectations are low, and his 4.62-second 40-yard dash -- adjusted for his size -- isn't very impressive.

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