Betting Guide for Super Bowl LVI: Will the Clock Strike Midnight on Cincinnati?

The pinnacle of the sports calendar arrives once more.

After 544 regular-season games, 12 postseason games, and approximately 20 cases of diet soda consumed on Sundays by yours truly, we have arrived at Super Bowl LVI to cap the 2021-22 NFL season.

Beautiful SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California has been slated for years to hold the event, but it wasn't expecting a home team. The Los Angeles Rams pounced through the NFC to make their second appearance in four seasons. However, virtually no one predicted they'd be facing off with the surprise Cincinnati Bengals representing the AFC after winning two road playoff games. The two will battle to crown a champion on Sunday.

On the most voluminous day in sports betting, where is the sharp money? What do the wise guys think? Is the public on the wrong side? Let's find out.

Note: All lines come from NFL odds, and lines and/or projections may have changed since the publishing of this article.

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds

Previewing the Rams

In the last two betting guides, I mentioned the Rams were the strongest team remaining from the NFC. According to numberFire's metrics, L.A. had the league's fifth-best offense coupled with the league's fourth-best defense.

Needless to say, with two top-five units, they're a worthy favorite here.

Still, it wasn't all smooth sailing for the Rams to make it here. They barely squeaked out of a world-class collapse against the Buccaneers in Tampa, and they trailed Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers by double-digits before a comeback at SoFi two weeks ago.

This isn't a slam dunk with their loaded roster, though. Matthew Stafford was still top-10 at the position in turnover-worthy plays this season (28) according to PFF. One could argue he's woefully due to make mistakes with the football after a clean run through the playoffs.

Sean McVay has the highest active winning percentage in the NFL (.694), so he's incredibly capable, but two bone-headed challenges and misused timeouts nearly cost L.A. dearly two weeks ago. His roster has been in go-for-it mode since he took the job. Winning to get to this point is the job requirement.

Regardless, there's no arguing they're a tough out. On offense, Cooper Kupp gets free releases from the slot, and he's in the NFL record book after 145 catches in the regular season and an even better postseason.

They also held a league-best 35% pressure rate as a defensive front led by Aaron Donald, but rotational rushers Greg Gaines and A'Shawn Robinson have been more productive inside during the playoffs as well. Personally, it's the strength of their team well beyond the offense.

If you're penciling in the Rams in a comfortable win because of their talent and results thus far, buckle up. L.A. was just 2-5 straight up against playoff teams in the regular season and 9-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) overall.

Previewing the Bengals

How far can confidence take you? Ask Joe Burrow.

The Bengals were comfortably pegged for last by most prognosticators in the AFC North, but they rose through a topsy-turvy division to hold the AFC's fourth seed. They were a well-rounded squad with exactly the 13th-ranked offense and defense in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. It's not as flashy as Los Angeles, but they were definitely balanced.

Cincinnati had to win ugly in the playoffs, though. They held off Derek Carr at the goal line to prevent overtime in the Wild Card round, and they won on last-second Evan McPherson field goals on the road against the top two seeds, Tennessee and Kansas City. Still, they're 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

In the playoffs, their offense has been inconsistent because of sporadic offensive line play. The Bengals allowed a 29% pressure rate this season -- a bottom-five mark in the NFL. Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans. It's a real concern entering this game.

Personally, Zac Taylor is a concern as well. Taylor's winning percentage (.337) is the lowest of any coach to ever make a Super Bowl. He's 6-25-1 in games without Burrow starting. Unfortunately, #9 will be active for Sunday, or my job picking a four-point spread would be very, very easy.

Still, the Bengals' front seven held a sporty 33% pressure rate during the regular season. They've also gotten tremendous veteran contributions in the secondary by Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple.

Betting the Total

The under is a phenomenal play in this contest.

It opened on FanDuel Sportsbook at 49.5 and has dropped to 48.5. The Bengals were 24th in seconds per play in the regular season, and the Rams were 21st. With possessions at a premium and the ultimate prize on the line, I wouldn't expect the pace to significantly pick up from there.

Cincinnati has fallen short of 48.5 points in all three of their postseason games, and Los Angeles has in two of their three. Keep in mind, before Cam Akers fumbled twice, L.A. was also pacing toward a rout and the under against Tampa Bay for the lone exception.

Each of the last three Super Bowls has gone under the expected total, and all of them involved a pair of top-10 offenses. The Bengals aren't even one of those. The total, though, is 27-27-1 all-time, so don't lean on history to help you decide which way to go.

This game could have a very similar look and feel to both of the games were saw during championship weekend. The Bengals and Chiefs combined for just three fourth-quarter possessions because they were petrified of the respective opposing quarterback.

With that in mind, I'll have 1.5 units on this under for a larger lean than even the outcome.

Betting the Outcome

numberFire's model has one-star (and therefore, one-unit) conviction on the Bengals' moneyline (+166) and the Bengals' spread of -4.0 (-108).

I mostly agree.

Is there a chance that the Rams' front seven makes the Bengals completely implode? Of course. However, the Chiefs had a 34% pressure rate entering their game with "Joe Cool" and only sacked him one time. Burrow ran for four first downs in the contest. His willingness to use his legs has helped offset the pressure woes Cincy faces.

My key mental note these past two weeks is that the pressure mentally is firmly on McVay, Stafford, and the Rams to deliver their reward for going "all-in." On the other side, a supremely confident quarterback with absolutely nothing to lose awaits. No one is going to rip the Bengals apart for losing here.

The Rams have been phenomenal in limiting the run, and that may force the Stripes away from their limited running game. Cincinnati has just a 37.72% Rushing Success Rate in their last eight games total, but they still ran it 41% of the time against Kansas City (with some success, I might add).

Public betting data could end up being fairly noisy because this Bengals squad is quite popular -- especially on the moneyline. Still, recent history is on the side of the Bengals. Underdogs have won 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls outright.

Only two quarterbacks in NFL history have a college national championship and a Super Bowl -- Joe Namath and Joe Montana. Could another "Joe" join them this weekend?

Because of the offensive line concerns, I'll be less bold than our model. Just because there's no football again until September doesn't mean we can abandon the unit system! I'll have 0.75 units on the Bengals to cover the four-point spread, and I'll have 0.25 units on their moneyline (+166).

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Bengals 23-20