Wait...Andy Dalton Made the Pro Bowl?
It was announced today that Dalton would take Aaron Rodgers' spot at the Pro Bowl, resulting in a whole lot of this on social media.
Andy Dalton: 2014 Pro Bowler.
Are you kidding me?
I'll keep this brief, because there's no reason to waste a lot of time on discussing whether or not Andy Dalton should have made the Pro Bowl under any circumstance. He shouldn't have.
In 2014, according to our Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Dalton ranked 19th out of 37 passers who dropped back to pass 200 or more times. He was worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick, who spent a good part of the season growing his beard.
Dalton's 24.54 Passing NEP total was actually the worst score he's had since his rookie season four years ago. And, in the context of history, it's roughly 18 expected points below an average quarterback's score (since passing is more effective than running, the expected score isn't exactly zero).
The reason Dalton's going, though, is because he's the seventh alternate. Seventh. Meaning, 12 other quarterbacks, according to the Pro Bowl, were better than Andy Dalton this year.
The problem is that this isn't even true. Per our numbers, of the players who didn't get asked before Dalton, the aforementioned Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, and Mark Sanchez were all more deserving.
Nope. Instead of one of them, we're stuck with Andy Dalton.