FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Divisional Round (49ers at Packers)
The Green Bay Packers, the top seed in the NFC, host the San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. EST Saturday night in the Divisional Round.
On NFL odds, the Packers are 6.0-point favorites in a game with a 47.0-point total. That makes the implied score 26.50-20.50.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
The standout MVP options, according to our projections, are each team's signal-caller and top weapon -- Aaron Rodgers ($16,500 on FanDuel), Davante Adams ($14,500), Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,000) and Deebo Samuel ($15,500).
Rodgers paces our projections at a clip of 20.5 FanDuel points, which is 1.8 points clear of the pack. He was excellent at Lambeau this season, averaging 275.9 passing yards per game in the split with 20 scores and one pick. However, the ceiling has been lacking for most of the year, with Rodgers posting only three games of 25-plus FanDuel points. Given that Rodgers is likely to be the most popular multiplier, I'll mostly fade him at MVP.
Adams is my favorite MVP play of the slate. The upside is there, and the floor is outstanding for a receiver. Not counting the Week 18 outing in which Green Bay didn't play their starters the full game, Adams has scored at least 13.4 FanDuel points in six straight, going off for four games of at least 25.1 points in that span. He torched San Fran for 12 catches, 132 yards, and a score earlier this year. For what it's worth, he blitzed them in 2020, as well, going for 10 grabs for 173 yards and a tud. We peg him to score 18.3 FanDuel points.
Samuel just keeps getting it done, and he's still handling a good amount of work as a running back despite the 49ers' backfield being healthy, totaling 7, 8, and 10 carries over the last three games -- which has led to touch counts of 10, 12 and 13 in that time. He's found paydirt in eight of his last night games, and Green Bay's defense is vulnerable on the ground, ranking as the third-worst run D, per our metrics. Our algorithm projects Samuel for 18.7 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate.
Jimmy G probably isn't going to be a popular MVP pick, and it should at least pique our interest whenever a quarterback isn't going to be used much at MVP. I'm not sure I can commit to Garoppolo as my multiplier, though. In addition to being banged up with thumb and shoulder ailments, Garoppolo barely has any upside when he's fully healthy as his best single-game FanDuel output since the start of November is 20.34 points. We have him slated for 16.4 FanDuel points.
Elijah Mitchell ($13,000) is also a viable MVP play, and he makes a lot of sense as a multiplier if you're building for a 49ers win.
Mitchell logged 27 carries last week, adding two targets and one reception. He's been given at least 21 carries in six straight games. He's clearly the Niners' top back, and as we touched on above, the Packers' run defense is bad. The only negatives are that Deebo pilfers some work, especially in the red zone, and Mitchell could get game-scripted out of the affair if Green Bay jumps out to a lead. All in all, we have Mitchell scoring 13.7 FanDuel points.
Sticking with the Niners, George Kittle ($10,000) could pop this week. He's scored 4.0 FanDuel points or fewer in four straight, but if the Niners have to be more pass-heavy in a negative game script, he should benefit.
We know what Kittle can do when he sees volume, and the big-play potential is there, too. At a modest salary, Kittle is one of my favorite plays on this slate, and he's a great run-back piece to Rodgers-Adams stacks. Our algorithm forecasts him to generate 10.5 FanDuel points.
Much of what I just said also applies to Brandon Aiyuk ($10,500), who we peg for 8.8 FanDuel points, and he could slip through the cracks a bit at a salary $500 more than Kittle's.
Aiyuk was targeted six times on 25 Jimmy G attempts in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, and his final tally of five catches for 66 yards could've been bigger if Garoppolo didn't miss him on an open chunk play. Aiyuk's 83% snap share last week snapped a streak of 10 straight games of at least a 90% snap share. He should be out there a ton, and his target total could jump if San Fran plays from behind. Jaire Alexander's potential return would be a negative.
Jauan Jennings ($8,000) continued his late-season emergence in the Wild Card Round, seeing five targets a week after his 94-yard, two-tuddie breakout against the Los Angeles Rams. Despite his snap rate being only 51% last week, Jennings is a fine value dart throw who would stand to benefit from a negative game script.
Flipping over to the Green Bay side, Aaron Jones ($12,500) and A.J. Dillon ($12,000) are projected for 12.8 and 10.3 FanDuel points, respectively, per our model.
In their last five games together, Jones has been held to a snap rate under 50% three times, which stinks for a back with a salary as high as his. While it's not out of the realm of possibility that Green Bay leans more heavily on Jones in the postseason or that Dillon punches in multiple touchdowns, these two are a tough sell while they're splitting things the way they are.
The Packers have some moving parts at wide receiver. The status of Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000) is something to watch. He didn't practice Wednesday after suiting up Tuesday. If MVS sits, Randall Cobb ($6,000) -- who is expected to return -- and Allen Lazard ($11,000) get a boost, although even in that scenario, Lazard is over-salaried.
If MVS plays, his big-play chops are enticing on a single-gamer. We have all three projected for between 6.5 and 5.8 FanDuel points, with Cobb standing out as a nice point-per-dollar pick. Cobb will likely be a go-to value target Saturday night.
You have to check out the weather before plugging in kickers at Lambeau in January. As of Thursday afternoon, the weather is supposed to be very cold and slightly windy. Not ideal. Our projections have Mason Crosby ($9,000) and Robbie Gould ($8,500) at 7.9 and 7.8 FanDuel points, respectively.