The Indianapolis Colts ride into Foxboro this week looking to knock off the top-seeded New England Patriots, who are appearing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game.
Indianapolis, who last played in an AFC Championship Game in 2010 when they beat the Jets to earn a trip to Superbowl XLIV, comes in as 6.5-point underdogs, a spread only half a point smaller than last week when they pulled off the upset as 7-point underdogs in Denver.
New England has shown that they aren't invincible this postseason, twice finding themselves down by 14 points to the Ravens. Of course, the Pats rallied back both times and pulled out the win in the fourth quarter, showing that they are as good as anyone in the league when things click.
Still, the Colts appear to be peaking at the right time. They handled the Bengals easily in the first round, and after falling behind early, took the lead in the second quarter against Denver and never looked back.
What does that mean for the game this weekend?
Can the Colts Stop Another High-Powered Offense?
Far and away the biggest story the last time these two matched up was the emergence of 20-17 win in overtime. Joe Flacco went 23-of-35 for 289 yards and a touchdown. Dennis Dixon was held to just 145 yards passing, completing just 12 of his 26 attempts, a bad sign for Luck's prospects against a very good secondary.
Encouraging for Indianapolis faithful, however, is that the next three strongest matches all have the Colts coming out ahead.
But when combining all of these factors, what do the algorithms ultimately suggest?
Patriots Win, Colts Cover, Take the Under
Our algorithms predict a final score of 27.74-22.09 in favor of the Patriots, and give the colts a 55.42% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread, good for a return of 1.99%.
Despite predicting a Colts loss, our numbers give them a 31.93% chance of winning outright, meaning a 2.82% return on a moneyline bet.
The best value in this contest is taking the under. All but three of our top 25 strongest predictors hit the under, and we give it a 60.58% of hitting this week, good for a return of 15.65%.