NFL Week 18 Power Rankings: A Huge Game Looms in Las Vegas
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWin% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 10-6 | 11.02 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 86.3% |
| Buccaneers | 12-4 | 9.86 | 2 | -1 | 100.0% | 85.9% |
| Cardinals | 11-5 | 8.76 | 3 | 1 | 100.0% | 72.9% |
| Cowboys | 11-5 | 8.52 | 4 | -1 | 100.0% | 68.1% |
| Patriots | 10-6 | 8.50 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% | 74.2% |
| Packers | 13-3 | 7.85 | 6 | 2 | 100.0% | 65.9% |
| Rams | 12-4 | 6.63 | 7 | 0 | 100.0% | 57.2% |
| Chiefs | 11-5 | 6.52 | 8 | -2 | 100.0% | 74.5% |
| Colts | 9-7 | 5.66 | 9 | 0 | 91.4% | 77.0% |
| 49ers | 9-7 | 4.27 | 10 | 0 | 42.8% | 42.8% |
| Bengals | 10-6 | 3.45 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% | 60.1% |
| Titans | 11-5 | 2.75 | 12 | 4 | 100.0% | 81.3% |
| Saints | 8-8 | 2.40 | 13 | 0 | 54.7% | 70.1% |
| Eagles | 9-7 | 1.85 | 14 | -2 | 100.0% | 31.9% |
| Chargers | 9-7 | 1.78 | 15 | -1 | 55.4% | 62.3% |
| Vikings | 7-9 | -0.20 | 16 | -1 | 0.0% | 64.6% |
| Broncos | 7-9 | -0.85 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% | 25.5% |
| Seahawks | 6-10 | -1.68 | 18 | 4 | 0.0% | 27.1% |
| Steelers | 8-7-1 | -1.85 | 19 | 2 | 3.5% | 26.4% |
| Ravens | 8-8 | -1.90 | 20 | -1 | 1.8% | 73.6% |
| Browns | 7-9 | -1.94 | 21 | -3 | 0.0% | 39.9% |
| Raiders | 9-7 | -2.62 | 22 | 1 | 48.0% | 37.7% |
| Dolphins | 8-8 | -3.41 | 23 | -3 | 0.0% | 25.8% |
| Bears | 6-10 | -5.01 | 24 | 2 | 0.0% | 35.4% |
| Football Team | 6-10 | -5.76 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% | 59.0% |
| Panthers | 5-11 | -6.11 | 26 | -2 | 0.0% | 14.1% |
| Giants | 4-12 | -8.37 | 27 | 0 | 0.0% | 41.0% |
| Falcons | 7-9 | -9.28 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% | 29.9% |
| Jets | 4-12 | -10.59 | 29 | 1 | 0.0% | 13.7% |
| Lions | 2-13-1 | -11.90 | 30 | -1 | 0.0% | 34.1% |
| Texans | 4-12 | -12.40 | 31 | 1 | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| Jaguars | 2-14 | -13.00 | 32 | -1 | 0.0% | 23.0% |
Through 17 weeks of NFL action, we have 11 teams with a playoff spot clinched. Another seven are yet to be eliminated.
I'll focus on the seven with playoff hopes that yet remain.
The best odds among those seven belong to the Indianapolis Colts (91.4%). With a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, they will make the playoffs. Our algorithm gives them a 77.0% chance to win that game. There are more ways for the Colts to advance, however, so even with a loss, they are not eliminated. They can do no better than a wild card spot, however.
The Los Angeles Chargers (55.4% playoff odds) and Las Vegas Raiders (48.0%) play one another this week in a game in which our algorithm gives the Chargers the edge (62.3%). Both the Chargers and Raiders are in with a win.
The New Orleans Saints also have a better-than-50-percent playoff status (54.7%). They play the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. With a win, the Saints still need help. They need the San Francisco 49ers to lose to the Los Angeles Rams, who would clinch the 2 seed with a win of their own. Our model gives the Rams a 57.2% chance to get the win, so the Saints' odds make more sense here -- even while needing help. Both games start at 4:25 Eastern.
After the 49ers, it's a big drop to two teams that need a win and help. That's the Pittsburgh Steelers (3.5%) and Baltimore Ravens (1.8%). Pittsburgh needs the Colts to lose to the Jaguars and for the Raiders and Chargers not to end in a tie. The Ravens need a win plus losses from the Colts, Chargers, Cleveland Browns, and Miami Dolphins. That's why -- even with Baltimore sitting at 73.6% likely to beat Pittsburgh, their path is narrower to everything else happening to make the postseason.
