Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 17

One of the things that makes fantasy football so captivating is the variance. Derrick Henry was the RB1 in all of fantasy in half-PPR formats in 2020, but Henry himself only had three weeks as the top fantasy scorer. That means, on individual weeks, some very strange players may lead the league in fantasy points at their positions.

That opens the door for some room to be "spicy" and make some fun predictions. In a landscape increasingly set ablaze by "hot takes," it can be difficult to understand the difference between a bold prediction -- based on a particularly strong spot for a team or player -- and a senseless take with the prayer of becoming correct based on variance.

Let's shoot for the former with five interesting spots to target during this weekend's NFL games.

(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)

1. One Last Lance: Trey is a Top-10 Quarterback Against Houston

This isn't exactly the path many projected, but Trey Lance is fantasy relevant in Week 17 against the Texans.

Of course, the rookie has sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo for most of his inaugural campaign. However, with Garappolo's thumb in rough shape, it's likely Lance starts for the 49ers this week. At 0.13 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, Lance has been a league-average passer in limited action, but his value comes from his rushing upside.

In two games with at least 50% of the snaps played, Lance posted 130 yards on the ground. That could even increase -- along with his rushing touchdown upside -- as running back Elijah Mitchell a question mark at best for Week 17.

Houston is allowing the fourth-most adjusted Half-PPR fantasy points per drop back to quarterbacks (0.44), according to numberFire's Brandon Gdula, so the matchup is far from difficult for the rookie with incredible dual-threat upside.

With that much danger on the ground, Lance is a perfect streaming option and could push to be one of the top signal-callers across this league.

2. Mont-umental Day: The Bears' Tailback Posts 100 Scrimmage Yards and a Score

Quietly, David Montgomery is one of the most comfortable starts at running back in the NFL.

The Bears' limited offense and lame-duck coach makes his ceiling hard to reach, but there's no doubting Montgomery's role. Over the last six weeks, Montgomery has seen 79.2% of the Bears' offensive snaps on the field, and he's seen 28.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets) in that span.

On the other side of the Bears' final home game of the season, the New York Giants are limping to the finish line. They've been dismantled by the Dallas and Philadelphia offenses in consecutive weeks. Their run defense was once a strength, but the G-Men have allowed 0.07 Rushing NEP per carry to opposing ball carriers in the last five weeks -- 10th-worst in the NFL.

In a battle between two teams with nothing to play for, Montgomery's role might shrink slightly, but his dual-faceted role is way, way too solid to bench. He's likely helped several fantasy playoff teams to their title games thus far, and this matchup isn't one to be scared of, either.

3. Queen City Quagmire: No Bengals or Chiefs Skill Players are Top-5 Fantasy Scorers

In many eyes, the fantasy game of the weekend is in Cincinnati; the Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Bengals in Week 17.

I'm not as optimistic.

These teams are coming off thrashings of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but excluding Pittsburgh's overwhelming of the COVID-ravished Titans in Week 15, those teams are both bottom-10 in terms of Defensive NEP per play the past five weeks. They're both struggling units that struggled against K.C. and Cincy -- shocker.

The Chiefs and Bengals, quietly, are successful because of their defenses. Since Kansas City's Chris Jones returned to the team in Week 7, both are top-12 units in terms of Defensive NEP per play. The Chiefs are 6th, and the Bengals are 12th. Overall, these are capable defenses that aren't going to allow 500-plus passing yards to their opponents.

Therefore, while you're starting Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase as five of the best fantasy assets in the sport, tread lightly when it comes to expecting a 30-burger from them. This game has a 49.5-point total, which should be the first indication that this contest isn't going to be a re-enactment of the infamous 2018 Chiefs-Rams one.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your roster), there appear to be competent defensive efforts in the forecast in this game -- a stark difference for these two squads from a week ago.

4. Hit Them Where it Ertz: Zach is a Top-5 Tight End

The renaissance of the once-dusted Zach Ertz has been something to behold.

Traded to Arizona for a late-round pick, the tight end was considered a rotational plug for Maxx Williams. Now, with DeAndre Hopkins out for the year, Ertz has become Kyler Murray's favorite target. On Christmas, Ertz saw 13 targets in a negative game script.

That was his second straight contest with double-digit targets, and he's seen 8.4 targets per game in his last five contests. That's not only a great role for a tight end, it's the single best role in that span for any tight end not named Mark Andrews.

With the uncertainty around George Kittle's quarterback, Darren Waller's health, and the up-and-down productivity of Rob Gronkowski, the list is very, very short of tight ends to start over Ertz this weekend. Not only is he a must-start, but he's someone you can count on with a 50.5-point total in the Cards' meeting with the Dallas Cowboys.

5. Remember Them: The Titans Post 3-Plus Sacks Against Tua and the Fins

A lot of defenses have been stashed, but the Tennessee Titans might still be on your wire.

They're a great start hosting Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in Week 17. With just one offensive touchdown against the Saints, the Fins aren't nearly as unstoppable as their seven-game winning streak would imply.

Miami still has a key weakness: their offensive line in pass protection. The Dolphins' O-Line has surrendered a 32% pressure rate this season -- the single-worst mark in the NFL. They've faced so many poor defenses in succession that this really hasn't entered the equation, but the Titans don't fit that bill.

The Titans have a 31% pressure rate as a defensive front, which is tied for the eighth-best mark in the NFL. They've turned that into multiple sacks in seven of their last eight games, and the lone exception was when Houston only attempted 24 passes.

It's hardly bold to predict the Titans are a useful streamer this week that can score multiple sacks again, but they're far from the conversation of top options this week. Perhaps they shouldn't be.