NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 16

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Justin Herbert$8,40022.12.6417.328.036.0%1.97
Jalen Hurts$7,70020.92.7115.226.630.2%1.91
Patrick Mahomes$8,70020.92.4015.426.329.6%1.02
Matthew Stafford$7,90019.92.5214.624.924.6%1.36
Josh Allen$8,50019.12.2513.924.121.3%0.73
Tom Brady$8,40019.02.2614.124.120.9%0.79
Joe Burrow$7,10017.92.5212.823.117.9%1.33
Russell Wilson$7,50017.62.3412.422.816.6%0.94
Kirk Cousins$7,30016.52.2611.721.612.7%0.82
Matt Ryan$6,80016.42.4111.620.810.3%1.06
Derek Carr$7,00015.32.1910.520.27.9%0.70
Mac Jones$6,70015.02.2310.120.08.5%0.80
Zach Wilson$6,60014.82.249.819.98.0%0.80
Trevor Lawrence$6,50014.62.249.819.48.1%0.77
Drew Lock$6,60013.72.089.417.95.9%0.51
Ben Roethlisberger$6,80013.51.988.518.34.7%0.46
Nick Foles$6,10013.22.178.318.36.2%0.74
Davis Mills$6,60012.51.897.517.03.0%0.37
Cam Newton$7,20012.21.697.317.24.3%0.26
Tim Boyle$6,00012.22.037.417.34.5%0.57
Jake Fromm$6,40011.61.816.816.33.1%0.34
Josh Johnson$6,1009.81.604.914.51.6%0.27
Sam Darnold$6,2004.20.680.28.50.0%0.03

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Alexander Mattison$5,50016.83.0511.221.933.8%4.83
James Robinson$8,20015.21.869.820.527.7%1.25
Cordarrelle Patterson$7,20015.22.1110.220.527.3%1.92
Najee Harris$8,40014.71.759.919.522.7%0.99
Joe Mixon$7,50014.21.908.819.322.4%1.30
Josh Jacobs$6,80014.22.089.319.221.3%1.85
David Montgomery$6,60014.12.138.719.121.1%1.82
Clyde Edwards-Helaire$6,50013.22.037.717.915.9%1.55
Damien Harris$6,60013.11.988.417.615.2%1.53
Saquon Barkley$7,00013.01.857.617.716.2%1.15
Miles Sanders$6,40012.92.018.417.215.8%1.59
Ronald Jones$5,40012.62.347.917.314.1%2.26
Michael Carter$5,80012.62.177.717.414.7%1.80
Justin Jackson$5,40012.42.307.717.817.0%2.19
Javonte Williams$6,30011.21.786.315.810.4%1.02
Melvin Gordon$6,30010.81.716.015.18.3%0.94
Devin Singletary$5,80010.61.826.215.29.6%1.17
Rex Burkhead$5,40010.41.935.815.18.4%1.33
Sony Michel$6,9009.51.385.213.96.1%0.47
Jamaal Williams$6,7009.51.425.313.85.8%0.50
Devonta Freeman$5,6009.01.604.113.84.9%0.83
Darrell Henderson$6,9008.71.264.013.55.2%0.40
Rashaad Penny$6,1008.41.384.413.13.5%0.56
Mike Davis$5,5008.11.483.812.73.5%0.66
Darrel Williams$5,7007.81.373.411.92.1%0.49
Ameer Abdullah$5,1007.41.453.511.72.2%0.66
Brandon Bolden$4,9006.51.332.610.51.2%0.51
Joshua Kelley$4,9006.51.332.710.91.4%0.55
Tevin Coleman$5,7006.41.122.411.01.6%0.38
Chuba Hubbard$5,5006.21.131.910.50.8%0.35
Ke'Shawn Vaughn$4,7006.11.292.09.80.8%0.48
Samaje Perine$6,2005.40.871.89.30.2%0.16
Devontae Booker$5,6005.30.941.49.20.5%0.22
Alex Collins$5,5005.20.951.49.30.6%0.24
Latavius Murray$5,3005.20.981.49.30.9%0.25
Jordan Howard$5,7005.10.901.09.10.2%0.20
Royce Freeman$4,9004.80.980.88.80.3%0.31
DeeJay Dallas$4,8004.60.960.98.50.3%0.28
Kene Nwangwu$5,0004.60.920.38.60.2%0.25
Peyton Barber$5,4004.40.820.68.50.1%0.21

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom
/Bust
Cooper Kupp$9,80019.11.9514.723.644.0%1.83
Tyreek Hill$8,70017.62.0212.222.437.9%1.75
Justin Jefferson$8,40015.01.789.819.522.5%1.04
Keenan Allen$7,70014.81.9210.619.120.6%1.50
Stefon Diggs$7,50013.81.848.618.820.3%1.19
Diontae Johnson$7,40013.21.789.318.015.7%1.20
Antonio Brown$7,00012.81.837.917.213.7%1.16
Ja'Marr Chase$7,10012.51.767.816.912.8%0.98
Tyler Lockett$7,30011.71.617.216.611.8%0.78
Hunter Renfrow$7,10011.71.658.115.24.4%0.73
D.K. Metcalf$6,70011.61.726.815.910.2%0.90
Russell Gage$6,70011.31.687.715.56.4%0.93
Tee Higgins$6,50010.91.676.815.17.2%0.88
Marquise Brown$6,40010.21.605.515.19.0%0.79
D.J. Moore$6,40010.21.605.015.29.7%0.78
Amon-Ra St. Brown$6,50010.21.576.814.03.6%0.67
Josh Palmer$4,90010.12.076.114.35.6%1.66
Van Jefferson$6,30010.01.585.514.15.3%0.73
Adam Thielen$7,2009.71.356.013.84.6%0.39
DeVonta Smith$5,9009.61.625.414.15.3%0.83
Odell Beckham$6,6009.51.455.113.86.1%0.54
Darnell Mooney$6,1009.11.495.212.72.9%0.58
Kenny Golladay$5,5009.11.654.213.75.7%0.82
Marvin Jones$5,6009.01.605.013.22.3%0.76
Chase Claypool$5,9008.71.484.013.03.1%0.61
Braxton Berrios$5,3008.61.635.511.81.2%0.73
Emmanuel Sanders$5,6008.61.544.612.43.0%0.68
Jakobi Meyers$5,7008.51.494.812.72.5%0.64
Tyler Boyd$6,2008.31.345.112.01.3%0.38
Laquon Treadwell$5,3008.21.545.710.70.0%0.56
Robby Anderson$5,7008.21.433.612.02.4%0.54
Keelan Cole$5,0007.91.594.011.62.2%0.75
Nico Collins$5,2007.61.464.111.21.7%0.58
Allen Robinson$5,5007.61.383.811.41.8%0.50
Tyler Johnson$5,0007.51.494.310.70.5%0.60
Josh Reynolds$5,4007.41.373.411.81.4%0.56
Kendrick Bourne$5,6007.01.253.910.30.1%0.31
Isaiah McKenzie$4,6006.71.473.89.40.0%0.51
Byron Pringle$5,2006.71.293.09.80.6%0.36
Tim Patrick$5,6006.71.192.910.10.8%0.31
Jerry Jeudy$5,8006.61.152.810.70.8%0.30
Zay Jones$5,0006.61.332.910.61.5%0.49
Denzel Mims$4,9006.41.312.110.41.1%0.50
Courtland Sutton$5,4006.41.182.210.81.5%0.42
Scotty Miller$4,9006.31.282.010.70.9%0.54
Chris Conley$4,9005.81.182.49.40.1%0.39
Darius Slayton$5,2005.71.091.49.60.7%0.32
Quez Watkins$5,3005.61.052.19.40.2%0.29
Tavon Austin$4,8005.61.162.98.10.0%0.20
Rashod Bateman$5,6005.30.951.98.50.0%0.15
K.J. Osborn$6,0005.20.861.98.10.2%0.09
Mecole Hardman$5,2005.10.992.17.90.1%0.14
Phillip Dorsett$4,7005.11.091.78.70.2%0.31
Olamide Zaccheaus$5,1005.00.992.18.00.0%0.19
James Washington$5,2004.90.941.28.40.1%0.19
Kalif Raymond$5,2004.80.931.58.00.2%0.18
Jalen Reagor$5,1004.80.931.68.00.1%0.18
Bryan Edwards$5,2004.70.911.58.00.0%0.16
N'Keal Harry$4,9004.60.951.87.80.0%0.19
Ray-Ray McCloud$4,8004.40.911.96.80.0%0.09
DeSean Jackson$5,1004.30.850.87.90.3%0.18
Damiere Byrd$4,9004.30.881.37.30.1%0.16
Marquise Goodwin$5,0004.20.831.47.10.0%0.12
Sammy Watkins$5,2004.10.781.07.10.0%0.12

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Rob Gronkowski$6,70012.31.837.716.232.1%1.09
Mark Andrews$8,00010.81.355.916.430.8%0.48
Kyle Pitts$5,90010.31.756.114.521.9%1.02
Dallas Goedert$5,90010.11.726.114.422.2%0.99
Jared Cook$5,1007.81.544.012.011.1%0.70
Dawson Knox$6,1007.61.244.011.58.8%0.33
Foster Moreau$5,2007.51.444.610.34.0%0.46
Hunter Henry$6,0007.31.223.310.77.1%0.28
Cole Kmet$5,0006.61.332.910.35.7%0.48
Tyler Higbee$5,5006.61.203.210.15.0%0.30
Noah Fant$5,6006.51.152.910.05.4%0.29
James O'Shaughnessy$5,3006.11.152.79.33.8%0.28
Gerald Everett$4,9006.01.232.79.12.7%0.31
C.J. Uzomah$5,0006.01.202.99.13.0%0.30
Tyler Conklin$5,2006.01.152.99.12.8%0.28
Evan Engram$5,0005.41.082.18.92.6%0.27
Jonnu Smith$4,6005.21.131.98.42.3%0.32
Albert Okwuegbunam$4,9004.80.971.88.01.0%0.19
Brevin Jordan$4,8004.70.971.27.81.9%0.22
Ryan Griffin$4,6004.30.940.97.41.0%0.18