NFL Betting Guide: Week 16
Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.
Even with all the information, advanced stats, and people attempting, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correctly. It's essentially flipping a coin.
That being said, people try. Myself included. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games against the spread to see how they fare.
Here are my five picks against the spread and a couple of totals I like this week. Play or fade as you please.
Week 15 Recap
Last Week: 2-3
Year-To-Date: 41-33-1 (55.4%)
An eyelash from a winning week.
Green Bay had Baltimore covered before Tyler Huntley's late-game heroics, but the late touchdown was a kiss of death for -6.5 regardless of Baltimore's two-point try.
Luckily, Pittsburgh's defense has a monstrous day to cover the 1.0-point spread with an outright win, and the Bills pulled away late from the Carolina Panthers to cover 11.5 points.
Joining Green Bay in the losers' column was a New England road loss that the sharps in Vegas tried to warn me about, but I just didn't listen. Also, a little bird told me the Arizona Cardinals might have failed to cover 12.5 points in Detroit. I'm sure it was a backdoor cover for the Lions, right? Jokes aside, no shame in that outright loss; few -- if any -- saw it coming.
Spread Picks
Pick #1: Falcons (-6.0) vs. Lions
The Falcons were the latest team to run into the buzzsaw that is the 49ers at the moment, and they're just 5-8 against-the-spread (ATS) this season. Detroit is 9-5 ATS, but they've been largely undervalued all season. This is just the third time all season the Lions have been less than a 7.0-point dog.
Ultimately, Detroit's defense is still worse than Atlanta's. The Lions have allowed 0.12 Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in the past five weeks, and Atlanta's mark is just 0.10 in that same span with a brutal strength of schedule -- fully healthy Tampa Bay, New England, and the aforementioned 49ers.
This line will likely swell in the event it's confirmed that Tim Boyle will start for the Lions with Jared Goff in COVID-19 protocols. Goff's 0.21 Passing NEP per drop back the past five weeks (sixth amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in that span) has been a huge boon to this Lions' upward trend. The drop-off to Boyle's efficiency (-0.37 Passing NEP per drop back in limited work) will be drastic.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Falcons 21-10
Pick #2: Patriots (-2.0) vs. Bills
There's something about the hoodie I can't quit.
This pick actually has much more to do with the Buffalo Bills, though. The loss of Tre'Davious White appears to have impacted Buffalo's defense considerably. In their last five games, Buffalo has allowed 0.05 Defensive NEP per play. That's 15th in the league -- which is not terrible in a vacuum, but that sample included the wind game against the Patriots three weeks ago where the Pats recorded just three pass attempts.
The Bills' defense was also near the top of the league in every category to start the season. Now, that title thoroughly belongs to the Pats. Even with Jonathan Taylor running wild in Week 15, the Patriots' -0.14 Defensive NEP per play the past five weeks is the very best in the league.
Buffalo's 66.4% situational-neutral pass rate makes them incredibly predictable, and New England's star corner, J.C. Jackson, can take Stefon Diggs out of the game.
The pick is that the Patriots' defense largely controls the tempo of this game and forces Josh Allen (3.5% turnover-worthy play percentage) into a key mistake.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Patriots 23-17
Pick #3: Football Team (+10.0) at Cowboys
This is as "hold your nose" as a spread pick gets in the NFL.
The unglamorous Washington Football Team is -- amazingly -- still in playoff contention despite a 6-8 record and a rash of COVID-19 issues. The best news? Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is out of COVID-19 protocols and will travel to Dallas.
This is a process play from someone who is holding a futures ticket for the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. Dallas just can't score right now.
The Cowboys' offense is the ninth-worst in the NFL during the past five weeks in terms of NEP per play (-0.01). Washington (0.03) is ahead of them despite throwing Garrett Gilbert out there in 20% of this sample. Tyron Smith is still not practicing for Dallas, either.
Dallas' defense is their calling card. They're the fourth-best D in this same five-week span in terms of NEP per play (-0.07), but Washington (0.06) is just 16th. WFT hasn't been the same leaky unit as earlier in the season.
The low total (47.0) in this contest with two mediocre offenses and two passable defenses says to take the points every time.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Cowboys 22-15
Other Selections
Colts (+1.5) at Cardinals: Indianapolis is one of three teams that has been top-10 in both Offensive and Defensive NEP per play the past five weeks. Arizona's defense has fallen to midpack in that span. This spread is basically just picking a winner, but I'll the take road team looking to play for a division title if San Francisco can beat Tennessee's struggling offense on Thursday.
Raiders (+1.0) vs. Broncos: I hate fading a team that didn't cover in Week 15 over one that did, because I'm usually paying the maximum cost in points for them. Still, this ultimately is Derek Carr against Drew Lock when a win covers the spread. Lock's -0.20 Passing NEP per drop back is the worst 2021 mark for a quarterback with at least 40 attempts. Las Vegas' 33% pressure rate is sixth in the NFL; I think they can force Lock into a couple of timely turnovers.
Totals of the Week
Pick #1: Browns at Packers (Under 45.5)
Merry Christmas! The Browns travel to Green Bay on Christmas Day, and the game should be a quick one.
numberFire's Brandon Gdula has this game rated easily the slowest-paced game of the week. Green Bay is the slowest team in the NFL in terms of seconds per play, and especially with either Nick Mullens or Baker Mayfield (without any practice likely in tow), it's not likely Cleveland improves on their 30th-ranked pace.
Thankfully, the star quarterback is facing the better defense. Over the past five weeks, the Browns are seventh in Defensive NEP per play (-0.05). Green Bay has struggled to the fourth-worst mark in the league in that category (0.12), but again, they'll have a significant advantage with Cleveland's personnel issues. The Raiders are the worst team in that department the past five weeks and shut down the Browns rather handily.
The situation with Cleveland's offense -- it still has Nick Chubb -- is a little volatile to comfortably lay 7.5 points against them, but a monster day from Chubb isn't what will lead to this game going over the total.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Packers 24-13
Pick #2: Jaguars at Jets (Over 41.5)
With zero interest in guessing which terrible defense plays worse on Sunday for a spread bet, the over is a nice consolation prize.
The Jaguars and Jets are both bottom-five defenses in terms of NEP per play this season. However, the offenses have had individual moments on each side. In fact, in terms of offensive success rate (i.e -- the percentage of plays that lead to positive NEP), New York is 18th and Jacksonville is 20th. At least it's not bottom-five so...progress?
Both teams are also top-20 squads in situational-neutral pass rate. It doesn't sound like much to be proud of, but keep in mind, these are two squads generally outmanned in terms of talent. On Sunday, they'll be on a level playing field.
numberFire's model has one-star (and, therefore, one unit) conviction with the over, and I concur. Expect Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson to both have tremendous matchups to try to prove their standing as the top-two picks in this most recent draft.
With a total this low and a passable weather forecast in New York, just one or two splash plays will be all it takes to sail over it. These secondaries are more than capable of providing them.
Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Jaguars 24-21
