Monday Night Football Betting: Vikings Look to Remain in the Playoff Picture
The NFC North takes the spotlight tonight as the second of two games with the Minnesota Vikings taking on the Chicago Bears. A Vikings win will keep them one game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the last NFC wild card spot. A win for the Bears will increase their season total by one.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Off NEP Rank | Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.86 | 16 | 8 | 25 |
| Chicago Bears | -7.32 | 27 | 28 | 24 |
Inside the Standard Bets
numberFire's model is giving an almost two-to-one edge to the Vikings, having them winning outright 65.2% of the time but only covering the 6.5-point spread 42.85% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Vikings’ moneyline odds are -290, which has an implied probability of 74.36%.
The Bears’ implied probability on their +235 moneyline odds is only 29.9%, and with our model giving them a 34.8% chance to win, we see value in the bet and rate it one star. Our model places the best value on Chicago covering +6.5 points (-110) as a two-star wager, as well.
Meanwhile, our model gives the over a 50.9% chance to hit, which is essentially a coin flip with -110 odds. Take a pass here.
Player Prop Value Bets
Justin Fields has been steadily improving after a very rough start to his tenure as Bears' starting quarterback. He has averaged 304 passing-plus-rushing yards over the last three games he has finished (Weeks 8, 9, and 14).
Minnesota ranks bottom eight in both passing yards and quarterback rushing yards against. Fields’ total yards line of 252.5 seems low here, so I like taking the over (-110).
Dalvin Cook absolutely torched the Steelers for 205 rushing yards last week. While much of the talk is how well Cook is running that ball, what goes unnoticed is that he has been pretty productive as a pass catcher this season, particularly as of late.
Cook has topped his 16.5 receiving yardage line for tonight’s game in each of his last four outings, and our player projection model forecasts a median receiving yardage of 28.3 receiving yards for Cook. I like taking the over here (-110).
Final Notes
The Vikings are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season with the over hitting in six of those games. Chicago has failed to cover in their last four home games and are 2-4 ATS in their home stadium this season.
