NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 15

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Josh Allen$8,70024.42.8119.230.548.5%2.83
Kyler Murray$8,80023.72.6917.929.444.9%2.07
Aaron Rodgers$7,60020.12.6414.725.627.8%1.69
Dak Prescott$7,50020.12.6815.125.427.1%1.93
Tua Tagovailoa$7,40019.32.6114.324.924.5%1.69
Jimmy Garoppolo$6,70017.52.6112.622.916.4%1.60
Tyler Huntley$6,40016.22.5410.421.713.9%1.18
Ryan Tannehill$7,00016.22.3110.720.910.2%0.89
Teddy Bridgewater$6,60016.22.4510.820.610.5%1.09
Trevor Lawrence$6,50015.92.4510.921.311.7%1.15
Joe Burrow$7,30015.62.1410.820.69.4%0.65
Cam Newton$6,90014.92.169.520.210.7%0.66
Ben Roethlisberger$6,60014.82.249.919.97.8%0.82
Matt Ryan$6,50014.22.199.819.15.5%0.72
Davis Mills$6,80013.21.958.718.14.5%0.42
Zach Wilson$6,50013.22.038.517.94.1%0.52
Mike Glennon$6,70012.71.907.917.53.7%0.41
Jared Goff$6,40012.71.987.917.33.0%0.46

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Najee Harris$8,80016.71.9011.122.034.6%1.38
James Robinson$6,30016.22.5710.521.430.0%3.17
Saquon Barkley$7,30014.21.959.019.222.3%1.42
Joe Mixon$8,30014.21.718.918.819.9%0.91
Cordarrelle Patterson$7,00013.91.988.319.523.2%1.48
Ezekiel Elliott$6,70013.72.048.618.920.8%1.62
James Conner$8,00013.31.668.118.620.2%0.83
Myles Gaskin$6,60012.51.897.217.716.2%1.28
Aaron Jones$7,50012.31.647.617.114.1%0.80
Javonte Williams$7,00012.11.737.316.611.5%0.98
Devonta Freeman$5,90011.92.026.916.711.4%1.49
Melvin Gordon$7,00011.91.696.916.812.1%0.90
A.J. Dillon$7,50011.71.566.816.511.9%0.68
Michael Carter$5,90010.91.856.115.810.5%1.12
David Johnson$5,50010.51.915.615.37.1%1.24
Jeff Wilson$5,80010.21.755.714.77.3%0.99
Devin Singletary$5,4009.91.835.113.86.2%1.09
Chase Edmonds$6,5009.61.484.814.78.9%0.66
D'Onta Foreman$5,8008.31.433.812.83.0%0.58
Tony Pollard$5,8008.21.423.811.91.8%0.47
Chuba Hubbard$6,0007.51.253.211.32.0%0.36
Craig Reynolds$5,3007.51.412.911.51.8%0.57
Mike Davis$5,6007.21.282.911.72.6%0.49
Godwin Igwebuike$5,0006.41.282.510.01.1%0.43
Ameer Abdullah$4,9006.31.291.910.50.9%0.53
Royce Freeman$5,2005.91.141.99.51.1%0.32
Dontrell Hilliard$5,2005.91.141.610.01.2%0.38
Matt Breida$5,3005.91.111.99.70.7%0.32
Jermar Jefferson$5,0005.81.161.59.70.8%0.39
Salvon Ahmed$5,4005.00.931.29.10.6%0.25
Jeremy McNichols$5,3004.90.931.39.10.5%0.26
Devontae Booker$5,4004.70.861.28.10.4%0.16
JaMycal Hasty$4,9004.60.941.18.30.3%0.24
Ty Johnson$5,4004.20.780.57.60.1%0.12
Tevin Coleman$5,5004.10.750.07.80.5%0.14
Samaje Perine$5,2004.00.760.38.10.1%0.17

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom
/Bust
Davante Adams$8,50017.52.0613.022.235.5%2.22
Deebo Samuel$8,20016.11.9613.019.522.1%2.52
Stefon Diggs$7,80014.31.839.819.220.9%1.25
Diontae Johnson$7,20014.01.959.918.317.2%1.59
Ja'Marr Chase$7,50012.41.657.517.214.6%0.84
CeeDee Lamb$7,40012.41.688.316.711.9%0.83
DeVante Parker$5,80011.82.047.716.410.7%1.74
Brandon Aiyuk$6,60011.21.697.115.06.5%0.84
Tee Higgins$6,80011.11.636.415.710.3%0.77
Christian Kirk$6,00011.01.846.715.26.2%1.15
Brandin Cooks$6,90010.81.566.115.38.6%0.68
Amari Cooper$7,00010.61.516.614.55.0%0.57
Marquise Brown$6,70010.41.555.415.110.0%0.67
D.J. Moore$6,60010.11.535.214.98.0%0.67
Chase Claypool$6,4009.71.515.414.14.9%0.67
Amon-Ra St. Brown$5,9009.51.615.713.43.4%0.81
Julio Jones$6,0009.41.575.613.24.1%0.68
Russell Gage$6,0009.41.575.613.23.0%0.69
A.J. Green$5,7009.01.584.913.24.2%0.76
Marvin Jones$5,7008.91.565.013.03.6%0.70
Sterling Shepard$5,6008.81.575.112.11.9%0.65
Michael Gallup$5,9008.71.484.613.23.6%0.63
Cole Beasley$5,8008.71.505.912.00.8%0.56
Jerry Jeudy$6,1008.41.373.912.73.1%0.50
Gabriel Davis$4,9008.31.703.913.04.0%0.93
Laviska Shenault$5,4008.21.525.311.41.2%0.60
Kenny Golladay$5,4008.21.523.313.04.4%0.76
Jamison Crowder$5,7007.81.374.410.90.7%0.39
Rondale Moore$5,5007.31.335.09.90.0%0.26
Allen Lazard$5,3007.31.384.011.10.5%0.51
Marquez Valdes-Scantling$5,5007.31.322.511.83.6%0.53
Tyler Boyd$5,7007.11.253.711.10.6%0.38
Josh Reynolds$5,1006.91.363.210.61.4%0.49
Rashod Bateman$5,8006.91.193.010.81.4%0.33
Robby Anderson$5,8006.91.182.711.01.8%0.36
Laquon Treadwell$5,1006.81.343.49.80.2%0.38
Braxton Berrios$5,3006.71.273.59.70.4%0.32
Courtland Sutton$5,6006.61.192.311.01.2%0.41
Albert Wilson$5,0006.61.323.310.10.6%0.45
Tim Patrick$5,5006.61.192.910.50.9%0.36
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine$5,3006.31.183.59.00.0%0.20
Nico Collins$5,3006.11.152.39.50.3%0.29
Keelan Cole$5,0005.81.172.69.80.0%0.39
Darius Slayton$5,0005.41.091.410.01.1%0.39
Antoine Wesley$4,7004.81.021.67.80.0%0.23
Tajae Sharpe$4,9004.30.881.67.40.0%0.12
Ray-Ray McCloud$5,0004.10.811.86.40.0%0.03
Devin Duvernay$5,0004.00.801.36.60.0%0.07
Jauan Jennings$4,9004.00.811.16.90.0%0.11

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
George Kittle$7,80014.41.8410.018.446.7%1.27
Mike Gesicki$6,2009.91.595.614.522.4%0.78
Mark Andrews$7,4009.81.334.914.824.4%0.44
Kyle Pitts$5,8009.41.624.714.019.4%0.83
Zach Ertz$5,3009.31.755.312.815.1%0.99
Dawson Knox$6,5009.21.425.712.813.8%0.46
Noah Fant$5,6007.01.253.510.87.8%0.39
Dalton Schultz$5,6006.51.173.29.74.7%0.25
Pat Freiermuth$5,3006.41.202.99.34.5%0.26
C.J. Uzomah$5,1005.71.122.88.61.9%0.23
Evan Engram$5,0005.51.091.78.72.6%0.24
Brevin Jordan$4,9004.91.001.48.32.5%0.26
Albert Okwuegbunam$5,2004.40.851.47.30.8%0.10
Josiah Deguara$4,6004.40.961.47.40.7%0.19
Ryan Griffin$4,6003.70.801.06.20.4%0.12
Anthony Firkser$4,7003.60.770.76.90.6%0.14
Tommy Tremble$4,6002.70.580.05.70.6%0.09
Eric Ebron$4,8002.00.410.04.60.1%0.04