NFL Betting Guide: Week 14

Do you think you know a lot about NFL football? Try regularly picking five games against the spread.

Even with all the information, advanced stats, and people attempting, elite sports bettors are lucky to get about 53% to 54% of -110 (even probability) bets correctly. It's essentially flipping a coin.

That being said, people try. Myself included. There are plenty of contests, media personalities, and other casual games at work or with friends that pick five games against the spread to see how they fare.

Here are my five picks against the spread this week. Play or fade as you please.

Week 13 Recap

Last Week: 2-3
Year-To-Date: 38-26-1 (59.4%)

As my numberFire buddy Tom Vecchio says, regression is a you-know-what.

A red-hot start to the season has cooled to just a 5-10 record the past three weeks.

Last week's winners were Pittsburgh handling business as a 4.5-point dog and the Chargers throttling the Bengals on the road getting 3.5 points.

The well with double-digit dog Houston ran dry as they got smacked by Indianapolis, a heart-breaking late field goal in a game that was decided pushed the Falcons from covering 10 points, and the Giants couldn't quite muster enough offense to hang with Miami.

Pick #1: Jets (+5.5) vs. Saints

Whatever you want to say about Zach Wilson, the Jets pretty comfortably have the better passer this week.

Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Wilson is averaging 0.01 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. That may not seem great (it's not), but it's also ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson in that span. While those three aren't playing well, no one is insinuating Taysom Hill is more effective than them.

Hill's first start was an eyesore. He averaged -0.29 Passing NEP per drop back with four picks. He's got a mallet finger that's basically going to turn the Saints into a glorified "wildcat" team for the remainder of the year.

If there's a way to attack the Jets' defense, it's not on the ground. The Jets are allowing a league-worst 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back to opponents. On the ground, it's 0.06 Rushing NEP per carry (eighth-worst in the league). Progress?

This game has just a 43.0-point total, but the under is a strong play as well with both teams struggling offensively. There is some concern about New York scoring points if Elijah Moore (quad) misses the game, but 5.5-points with the home dog in an unappetizing game the Jets can easily win outright is too good to pass up.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Jets 19-17

Pick #2: Giants (+9.5) at Chargers

Picking both New York teams to start might result in some closed tabs out there. I get it.

This prediction comes on one key matchup to me -- the Chargers' defensive philosophy should allow New York to move the ball. Even with Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm.

Los Angeles is the most notorious run funnel in the NFL. At 0.15 Rushing NEP per carry, they're numberFire's worst-ranked rushing defense as well. The Giants have an elite running back in Saquon Barkley that can exploit that.

The Giants are numberFire's seventh-worst rushing team, but that's largely been without Saquon. Their defense is actually the 13th-best in the league as well according to those same schedule-adjusted metrics.

They can hang with a team that's definitely missing Keenan Allen and likely missing Mike Williams due to COVID-19 protocols. If that knocks the Chargers' offensive efficiency just slightly, it will help the G-Men keep pace.

The crowd will also likely be 70% Giants fans in a pseudo-home game -- as is usually the case for the poor Bolts.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Chargers 24-17

Pick #3: Raiders (+10.0) at Chiefs

The Las Vegas Raiders turned in an ugly home effort against the surging Football Team, but that's really nothing new.

The Raiders are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) at home this season in what's become a destination for opposing fans. They're actually 3-2 ATS away from "The Death Star".

There is one factor driving this pick -- the Chiefs offense just regularly can't score. Their 41-17 victory over the Raiders in Las Vegas is the only time in their last seven games the "over" has hit on their game's point total. Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 0.06 Passing NEP per drop back in that span -- lower than Derek Carr and 22 other quarterbacks that have started in this time.

The 10 points with Las Vegas are more valuable as the scoring dwindles. This line is largely being driven by that game in Las Vegas, but it's pretty foolish to expect the Raiders don't have any schematic adjustments in the rematch.

Down Darren Waller, the Raiders would be wise to try and establish Josh Jacobs, and they have been; Jacobs has 48 combined touches in their last two games. Kansas City is third-worst in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics against the run, and we saw Javonte Williams carve them up a week ago.

The key will be Carr's ability to convert in the red zone, but I'll take the points against an offense that's downright mediocre at the moment.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Chiefs 25-19

Pick #4: 49ers (-1.5) at Bengals

I currently don't believe the Cincinnati Bengals will win another game this year.

They have one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL left and a myriad of issues. Their offensive line is only allowing 1.01 rushing yards before contact, and as Joe Mixon is sick and left last week's game with a shoulder issue, their offensive efficiency could crumble without their star back to make up for it.

Cincy's 47% situation-neutral pass rate is the second-lowest in the NFL the past three weeks, and that excludes most of the Pittsburgh blowout based on the situation. Even in close games, they don't want the ball in Joe Burrow's hands first, and they're leaning on...the aforementioned poor run-blocking offensive line?

Their defense is the seventh-best one in numberFire's adjusted schedule metrics, but here comes Kyle Shanahan and the red-hot 49ers offense. Even with the loss in Seattle, San Fran's 0.18 Offensive NEP per play mark the past three weeks is the fifth-best one in the entire NFL.

Mixon, as linked, is questionable to play Sunday. If he sits, the Bengals' offense will be pass-happy. They're allowing 3.0 sacks per game as is, and Nick Bosa and the boys can generate plenty of pressure (32% pressure rate; ninth-best in the league).

I expect Burrow and the offense to scuffle again, and the result in Seattle has this line below a field goal to lay.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: 49ers 31-20

Pick #5: Cardinals (-2.0) vs Rams

I think people keep waiting for the Cardinals' bubble to pop like the "Dot Com" bubble in the 1990s.

They're just a really good football team.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics have the Cardinals as the second-best offense in football and third-best defense. Those ranks have slipped to 6th on defense and 11th on offense in the past five weeks, but those are still plus marks with Kyler Murray sidelined for a good chunk of those games.

The Los Angeles Rams will forever be overvalued in the betting market thanks to Sean McVay -- whom I not-so-graciously refer to as "Wonderboy". Despite last week's slow start, they still dismantled the Jaguars to earn a close line in this Monday Night Football showdown.

The Rams still have issues. In the four weeks before the Jags, the Rams were just 19th in Defensive NEP per play (0.05). They were also 22nd in Offensive NEP per play (-0.01). Even McVay's side of the ball was scuffling tremendously.

This line appears to put less than a field goal between a solidly top-five team in the league against one that's much closer to the middle than the top.

A key matchup to watch in this one that helped lead to the Rams' total destruction in the 37-20 loss earlier this season -- Cards' nickel cornerback Byron Murphy. Murphy has one of the highest PFF coverage grades this season working primarily from the slot, and he limited Wonderboy's secret weapon, Cooper Kupp, to just 5 catches for 64 yards in L.A.

Swami Swaim's Score Prediction: Cardinals 31-23