NFL

5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 14

Josh Shepardson  —  @BChad50 Dec 9th, 2021
Buffalo's Dawson Knox has touchdown upside in a battle with Tampa Bay that is projected to see some scoring. Who else can help us save salary on FanDuel's main slate?

Studs with sizable salaries are frequently an integral part of winning money in daily fantasy football at FanDuel. However, to fit them under the salary cap, it's imperative to locate underpriced players who over-deliver.

A good place to start when attempting to unearth undervalued players is our projections tool. The tool offers a value option for sorting, showcasing who offers the most bang for your buck. In addition to matchups impacting projections, injuries do as well. On that note, players replacing injured starters are often among the top values. So, staying abreast of injury news and inactives until the start of games is a must with that in mind.

With the tone set for this piece, let's move on. The following quintet of players is among my favorite cap-friendly options in Week 14.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos ($6,700)

After missing last week's game, Melvin Gordon returned to practice in a limited fashion for the Denver Broncos on Tuesday. Javonte Williams erupted without his backfield mate, handling a season-high 77.92 percent of Denver's offensive snaps. The electrifying rookie set season highs for rush attempts (23), rushing yards (102), targets (nine), receptions (six), and receiving yards (76), sprinkling in a touchdown reception for good measure, according to Pro Football Reference.

If Gordon returns this week, the veteran runner might siphon work away from his rookie teammate. However, Denver is the fourth-biggest favorite (-8.0 points) on FanDuel's main slate, setting the stage for a ground-heavy attack capable of supporting Williams and Gordon. In addition, the matchup is good. The Detroit Lions are the 12th-worst run defense according to our power rankings. Moreover, according to Pro Football Reference, Detroit yields the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs.

As a result, Williams can steamroll them even in a shared backfield. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 48 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in 2021, Williams is fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.58 YCO/A) and second in missed tackles forced (47). Thus, he's a terror for opposing defenses. Finally, he is projected to finish as the RB4 with the highest value score -- a measure of points per one-thousand dollars of salary -- among running backs.

Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets ($6,300)

Unfortunately, Elijah Moore is day to day with a quad injury. Still, head coach Robert Saleh is "hopeful" he'll return to practice this week and suit up for the New York Jets against the New Orleans Saints. Since it's early in the week, I'll buy into Saleh's optimism and highlight the ascending rookie in a fantasy-friendly matchup.

Moore had his best game quarterbacked by Zach Wilson in Week 13, hauling in 6 receptions on 12 targets for 77 yards and 1 touchdown, adding a 9-yard run. The rookie's showing is his latest in a run of excellent games. In fact, among receivers targeted at least 10 times since Week 8, he has had the seventh-most targets (42), tying for 10th in receptions (28), ranking seventh in receiving yards (392), and yards per route run (2.47 Y/RR), and first in touchdown receptions (five).

Meanwhile, the Saints tie for the fourth-most FanDuel points per game allowed to receivers. Yes, he might see Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage. However, Moore might avoid him occasionally. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore has played the slot on 29.2 percent of his passing snaps since Week 8. On the flip side, Lattimore has traveled into the slot for only 40 snaps all year.

Moore is a standout in our projections, tying for the third-highest value score among receives on FanDuel's main slate. As a result, he's an excellent option in all game types.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills ($6,000)

Maybe I'm taking liberties, including Dawson Knox as a value. However, there's a steep decline in salary after the top-four tight ends. So, Knox is a value in spirit if not salary ranking among his peers at tight end.

The third-year tight end had a forgettable night on an island game when the Buffalo Bills lost to the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 13. Thankfully, facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gives him a chance for redemption this week.

First, Knox is a key cog in Buffalo's offense. The tight end is third in receiving yards (143), tied for second in receptions (12), and touchdown receptions (two) on the team. He's also second in targets (20) and routes (125) for the Bills since returning from hand surgery in Week 10. Second, the matchup is good this week.

The Bucs allow the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends in 2021. In addition, they play zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate this year, according to Dwain McFarland of Pro Football Focus.

Knox excels against zone coverage this year. According to Pro Football Focus, among 26 tight ends targeted at least 10 times this year, Knox's 134.4 Quarterback Rating on passes against zone coverage is the second-highest. Therefore, I like Knox as a piece of exposure to Buffalo's rock-solid implied total of 24.75 points in a projected shootout.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,500)

Breshad Perriman is a sneaky GPP piece of the projected shootout discussed above in Knox's write-up. Additionally, he's on the better side of it, with the Bucs sporting the second-highest implied total (27.75 points) on FanDuel's main slate.

The veteran speedster was quietly the number-three receiver for Tampa Bay last week, running the team's third-most routes (46). However, he played only four of his 47 passing snaps in the slot, aligning wide for the other 43. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin aligned for 42 of 49 passing snaps in the slot. Obviously, Godwin is capable of beating any cornerback. So, I'm not suggesting he's a must-avoid player. However, he has a challenging matchup.

The Bills primarily use Taron Johnson in the slot, where he thrives. According to Pro Football Focus, among 36 corners that have played at least 100 snaps in the slot, his 0.74 yards per snap allowed is the second-lowest mark. Adding perspective, Jalen Ramsey is tied for third, yielding 0.87 yards per snap. So, Johnson is elite from the slot.

Therefore, Tom Brady might look to the perimeter more often this week. Obviously, Mike Evans is their best perimeter receiver. Nevertheless, if Perriman can earn more than the three targets he netted in Week 13 as a speedy vertical threat, he can generate value at his minimum salary.

Browns, DEF, Cleveland Browns ($4,100)

The Cleveland Browns lost a low-scoring heartbreaker against the Baltimore Ravens when we last saw them in Week 12. They've since had their bye week to prepare for the Ravens again. In Week 12, they scored 11 FanDuel points, allowing only 16 points, sacking Lamar Jackson twice, and picking him off four times.

Neither Cleveland's stellar defense nor Jackson taking sacks and putting the ball in harm's way are blips on the radar. Instead, according to Pro Football Reference, the Browns allow the fifth-fewest yards per play (5.2), are tied for 17th in turnovers forced (14), and sit 16th in quarterback pressure percentage (25.1 percent). That's translated to 10th in sacks (31) and tied for 12th in scoring defense (22.3 points per game).

Conversely, Jackson is sacked at the fifth-highest rate (8.9 percent) among qualified quarterbacks this year. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, among 31 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks this year, Jackson has tied for the sixth-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (3.7 percent). Remarkably, it has gotten worse lately. Since Week 6, Jackson's turnover-worthy-play rate has ballooned to 4.3 percent.

Currently, Jackson is a gift that keeps on giving to daily fantasy defenses. As a result, they're a sweet GPP pivot off the Kansas City D/ST that I expect to be chalkier.


Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.