Daily Fantasy Football: Sannes' Situations to Monitor in Week 14

When I first looked at this slate on Monday, I thought it could be a dandy. There were good games to stack, and we had some dependable value at running back.

What a naive little doofus I was.

Every piece of news that has happened since then has made things tougher.

You want a massive feature back in Javonte Williams at $6,700?

Here's Melvin Gordon returning to practice.

Ah, well, with our darling Elijah Mitchell banged up, at least we might get to lean on JaMycal Hasty at $4,700 on FanDuel. That'd make a lot of things easier.

But alas, Jeff Wilson's knee is suddenly feeling better.

With no Keenan Allen, we can just load up on a heavy target load for Mike Williams.

Psych! He's on the COVID list, too.

The only good news we've gotten is with Alvin Kamara. Not only is he looking healthy again, but Mark Ingram is likely sidelined after testing positive for COVID. But with Kamara's salary at $9,000, that only deepens our need for salary-savers.

It has brought us to a situation where if we want to stack those fun games (spoiler alert: we do), we're going to need to scrounge up value. It's possible some of that crops up on Friday, and we'll highlight areas where that may happen. But this is a slate where we're going to need every single dollar of salary.

Let's run through all these key injury situations impacting the Week 14 main slate and outline what they mean for our DFS lineups.

What to Do With Javonte Williams

If Gordon were to wind up sitting, there's no discussion necessary. You play Williams and figure out the rest from there.

If Gordon plays? Then it's a bit more complicated.

If we assume Williams slots back into his old role, you can't justify him at his salary. In games with Gordon, Williams has averaged just 69.3 yards from scrimmage per game and gotten just 20.2% of the team's red-zone opportunities. Even in a plus matchup, that's not enough.

The "assume" portion of that is key, though. We don't know for sure that Williams would slot back into his old role. That ambiguity gives us some wiggle room.

With Gordon missing part of the game in Week 12, Williams had 14 carries and 4 targets on a 57.6% snap rate and turned that into 111 yards from scrimmage. That workload, itself, could be enough when it's tied to an electric back in a plus matchup.

Effectively, what we need here is for the scales to just tip towards Williams. There's a lot of juice in his touches given his talent and role in the passing game, so every marginal snap matters.

As a result, even if Gordon plays, you can still justify having Williams in lineups. It's just fewer lineups than it would be if Gordon were out.

It'd also alter the contests in which you use Williams. There are guys with better roles within $500 of Williams on FanDuel, meaning for cash games, Williams would be out of the picture. He'd still have at least a path to a ceiling, though, if his role can expand from where it was with Gordon active.

You're not going to get Williams at a popularity discount. People will use this line of thought to talk themselves into him, especially if value doesn't open up elsewhere. That could make Williams a fade for tournaments if you want to lean heavily on game theory. But just thinking about things straight up, the volatility in Williams' role is -- in this instance -- a good thing and does keep him on the tournament map even with Gordon likely back out there.

Unleashing Alvin Kamara

If Kamara were returning with Ingram healthy and in a neutral matchup, we might not give him too much thought. His salary is lofty, and Taysom Hill is dealing with an injured finger. It's not a perfect situation.

But with Ingram out and the New York Jets on the opposing sideline, Kamara's right back on the menu.

Kamara played just two games alongside Ingram before his injury. In those, his role took a pretty big hit. Here's a breakdown of the two splits with "adjusted opportunities" being carries plus two-times his target total with targets being worth twice as much as carries for running backs on FanDuel. "RZ Share" is the percentage of team carries or targets inside the red zone.

The margins may not seem like much. But when Kamara's salary is as high as it is, we need to make sure the juice is worth the squeeze. That's much more true if Ingram can't go.

So, yes, there are concerns about Kamara's role with Hill, given how infrequently Hill targeted Kamara last year and how often Hill steals goal-line rushes. But that sample last year came with Michael Thomas and Latavius Murray on the field, meaning Kamara's role should be much better this time around. That makes him worth a $9,000 tag -- if we can get there.

As for Hill, his rushing absolutely makes him viable for DFS at $7,700. The question is whether it's enough to use him over guys like Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady, both of whom are within $500 of his salary.

Hill's floor will be great due to his rushing. He ran 11 times for 101 yards last week, which almost locks you into 20 FanDuel points. The floor is no concern.

The ceiling is a different discussion. There have been 66 quarterbacks who have scored 25 FanDuel points this year, a number you typically need to hit to take down a tournament. Of those 66, 59 had more than 200 yards passing. Of the seven exceptions, two had four-plus passing touchdowns.

Basically, that leaves us with five guys who got there on rushing production alone. Three of those had multiple rushing touchdowns. That's certainly within Hill's range of outcomes, but it shows how much work he needs to do as a rusher if the passing production is going to be muted. Hill's worthy of looks in tournaments, but concerns around his ceiling keep him from being a priority.

In the lineups where you roll with either Hill or Kamara, the one bring-back you shoulder consider is Elijah Moore (assuming he plays after missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday). Jamison Crowder will get more targets than most in the mid-$5,000 range, but his ceiling leaves plenty to be desired -- especially in this matchup. The backfield could be thin if Tevin Coleman sits due to a concussion, but there, Austin Walter would likely be the early-down back with Ty Johnson stealing the passing-game work.

As such, Moore's the one guy who stands out, and you can easily justify using the Saints without a partner on the opposing side.

The Chargers' Pass-Catchers

There's a bunch of moving pieces with the Los Angeles Chargers. So let's just recap quickly to make things clear.

1. Allen has tested positive but is vaccinated. That means he could still play Sunday if he tests negative twice more than 24 hours apart.

2. Williams has not tested positive. He was deemed a high-risk close contact, meaning he must isolate for five days. Based on this tweet from Josina Anderson, that contact seems to have occurred on Monday.

3. Assuming that timeline is correct -- and that Williams continues to test negative -- he would be cleared on Saturday and allowed to play.

In other words, it's possible that both Allen and Williams could play, one plays without the other, or neither plays. Let's talk through the most likely scenario, though: that Williams plays while Allen is sidelined.

We actually saw this situation last year in Weeks 16 and 17. Allen and Hunter Henry missed the final two games, and it thrust Williams into a target-hog role. Here are those target shares with a "deep" target being at least 16 yards downfield.

Giving Williams a 27.0% target share at $6,900 on FanDuel would make him a cash-game consideration and still a rock-solid tournament play. He loses some appeal with the New York Giants unlikely to punch back with either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm at quarterback, but it's hard to nitpick that workload when it's coming from Justin Herbert.

The table should make it clear why Jalen Guyton would be a shaky option even if Allen sits. He still didn't earn a bunch of targets, and the ones he did get were volatile ones. Guyton caught a long touchdown last week and can boogie down the field, but his primary role is to be a field-stretcher, not a heavy target guy.

Instead, the way to get low-salaried access here seems to be Jared Cook. Cook wasn't on the team at that time, but his baseline target share this year is 12.7%; Guyton's is 6.9%. Cook also has more deep targets than Guyton for the season. Cook checks in at $5,100 -- a lower salary than Guyton's -- and helps fill tight end (though that's not as big of a plus this week as usual). As such, Cook is the guy we should prioritize here when looking for salary-savers.

As for Austin Ekeler, the target bump definitely helps; the key question is whether it's enough to rank him above Kamara among the high-salaried backs. Ekeler is tied to the better quarterback, playing at home, and also in a plus matchup. As such, I'd put Ekeler higher, but both are fully worthy of their salaries if we have the flexibility to get to them this week.

The 49ers' Messy Backfield

All signs point toward Elijah Mitchell missing Week 14. As mentioned, that could -- in theory -- open up value in this backfield. But it seems to be trending toward more of a committee.

Jeff Wilson was listed as a full participant in Thursday's practice. He's going to play this week, which means we'll have him and Hasty paired with Kyle Juszczyk. We could see a scenario where either Wilson or Hasty carries the full load. But previous data points lead to a split here.

Primarily, we saw Hasty get passing-game work even when Mitchell was emerging. They value him in that role. Wilson was viewed below Mitchell, which means Hasty's likely the passing-game guy.

But Wilson did carry the load on early downs when Mitchell was out earlier. Hasty wasn't active, but they trusted Wilson with big volume.

This leads to a situation where we'll likely see Wilson get the carries while Hasty gets the targets. Players can go off in that usage, but they need to hit the high, high end of their range of outcomes. Unless we get word that someone's likely to get a bigger piece of the pie, this backfield is underwhelming here.

We can wipe our tears with shares of the pass-catchers on both sides. Deebo Samuel missed another practice on Thursday, setting up George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk for hefty loads once again. On the other side, both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are rocking at least a 24% target share since Higgins returned from injury -- more than enough to justify their salaries. You can even consider Joe Burrow as a low-salaried quarterback.

So even if we can't lean on the 49ers' backfield, there's still plenty of reason to load up on this game.

Searching for Value in Bucs vs. Bills

We need value this week. Ideally, we'd love to attach said value to potential shootouts as high scores raise all ships.

We're just not gonna get it here.

The Buffalo Bills' matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the best game to stack on the slate. It has the highest total by five points, there's a tight spread, and -- a delight to Sean McDermott's ears -- there's no weather issues. It checks every box for game-stacking.

The problem is that every relevant piece in this game comes at a high salary. It's a deservedly high salary but a high one none-the-less.

For the Bills, we can cross off the backfield. That's easy.

At pass-catcher, we used to be able to lean on Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders to get low-salaried access to Josh Allen. But in four games with Dawson Knox back, those two have gotten Thanos snapped.

Manny's not even getting the prayer balls anymore. Alas.

As the table shows, though, the one somewhat discount we can get is via Knox himself. His salary isn't in the bargain bin at $6,000, but it's the lowest among the guys we can actually trust here. Knox has 80-plus yards twice this year along with a couple of multi-score games, so he has the upside to hang on a quality tight-end slate.

The one thing that could change would be if we were to get word of a role change for Gabriel Davis. Davis has come through when called upon this year to the point where it wouldn't be shocking to see his snaps increase. But, we typically don't get advance notice on things like that, meaning stacking the Bills is all about Allen, Knox, and -- of course -- Stefon Diggs, one of the top receiver plays on the slate.

The setup on the Bucs' side is similar, except you add in Leonard Fournette at running back. Interestingly, Fournette may be near the top of the list at the position this week.

It's not because the Bills have gotten gashed on the ground recently; they're still a good rush defense. It's just because Fournette's role is silly right now.

The past two weeks, Fournette's snap rate has gone above 80% both times, and he has 29-plus adjusted opportunities in each. They're very different backs, but Fournette is getting Austin Ekeler's workload at a $1,600 discount. Fournette's simply under-salaried, so I'm more than happy to keep going back to the well until his salary reflects his role.

As for the pass-catchers, the situation is becoming pretty clear. The target shares will be spread out when all three of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski are healthy. But we can still take swipes at them in DFS because those targets are worth so much.

Here's a breakdown of those targets in four games with Gronk but without Antonio Brown.

Even though nobody has a 20% target share, Gronkowski has a minimum of 8 targets for 55 yards in those games, and Evans has double-digit targets in all but one. That's the blessing of a team that throws at such a high rate.

As a result, we know that any of these three could go off; they proved last week that all three could do so simultaneously. They've all got great ceilings. We just have to be okay with the fact that any of them could post a dud if things don't break their way.

Personally, I'd rank them Evans, Gronkowski, and then Godwin. Evans gets the most high-leverage work and should benefit most with Tre'Davious White out while Gronkowski helps fill tight end.

That's not to say that Godwin is a bad play. He's just the lowest-ranked of three very good options.

The Cowboys at (Almost) Full Health

This is a true rarity, but the Dallas Cowboys may be the healthiest they've been all year entering Week 14. They've gotten back key defensive pieces, their offensive line is intact, and all three of their nasty receivers will be on a full snap count.

There's just one exception, and it's a big one for us.

There's a legit chance that Tony Pollard can't go this week. If that happens, as painful as it may be, we're going to have to load up on Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott's clearly not at full health right now. He says he initially hurt his knee back in Week 5. In the 7 games since, Elliott has averaged just 69.7 yards from scrimmage per game, down from 101.4 in the first 5 games. He looked explosive as a runner early on; that explosion isn't there anymore.

That might not matter if the volume is high enough, though, and it absolutely could be if Pollard can't play. Even while being banged up, Elliott has averaged 23.4 adjusted opportunities per game in this stretch. If you bump that number up with Pollard out, he could be inefficient and still pay off for DFS.

If Elliott's salary were high, we'd be able to consider fading him despite the volume. But he checks in at just $6,900, lower than most high-volume backs on the slate. With the knee having had 10 days to improve, we'd just have to hold our noses, add him to our roster, and hope this volume could elevate him back to his old level.

Even when you roll with Elliott, though, you can still easily justify exposure to this passing game. It helps here that the salaries are hyper-affordable.

CeeDee Lamb is the highest-salaried of the bunch at $7,800. Amari Cooper ($6,700) and Michael Gallup ($6,100) are both right beneath the cutoff where things start to fall off at wide receiver. And, truthfully, all three are on the map.

The Cowboys have basically played two halves this year with all three healthy and running a full complement of snaps: the first half of Weeks 1 and 10. Gallup got hurt in the second half of Week 1, and Lamb rested in the second half of Week 10 because it was a blowout. But in those first halves, Lamb got monster target shares.

Lamb's mark will absolutely decline as the sample expands. But it has plenty of room to go down, making him competitive in a delightful range at receiver.

Lamb's imminent regression is why we can feel good about Gallup and Cooper despite the fact that their volume has been lower in this split. Additionally, this is a high-efficiency offense, meaning each target is worth a bit extra. Gallup's $6,100 tag makes him the more desirable piece than Cooper, but Cooper could be a quality tournament pivot should he go overlooked.

JD McKissic's Impact on Antonio Gibson

If J.D. McKissic can't go this week, we should view Antonio Gibson as a full-on featured back. He played 82.0% of the snaps last week, and you don't turn that down for $7,400.

If McKissic plays -- very much a possibility after he returned to practice on Thursday -- Gibson still works, but his stock does take a hit.

The primary concern is what Gibson's workload would be if Washington were to fall behind, a very real possibility against such a tough Cowboys offense. In that scenario, it seems most likely that McKissic would be the guy on the field. That lowers Gibson's floor a decent amount.

The ceiling would still be there, though. In three games after their bye with McKissic, Gibson still averaged 30 adjusted opportunities and 106.3 yards from scrimmage per game. All three were wins, which is why we can't scrub out the concerns in a negative script, but if this game stays close or Washington leads, they're going to feed Gibson.

That's why we'd still want to be in on Gibson. We'd just have to lower exposures to account for the decreased floor and increased odds that Gibson comes up short. Gibson would still be a fringe-core play if McKissic plays, but he's a locked-in, top-tier building block if not.

Josh Jacobs as a Featured Back

There's a whole lotta unknowns in this Kansas City Chiefs versus Las Vegas Raiders game. Will the Raiders' defense adjust after a rough Week 10 matchup with the Chiefs? Will the Chiefs' offense let us down yet again? Will the Raiders' offense move the ball?

The one certainty seems to be Josh Jacobs as a legitimate featured back.

With Kenyan Drake going down early last week, Jacobs played a career-high 83.9% of the snaps. His 31 adjusted opportunities were his most this year and his second straight game at 30 or higher. With Drake out and Jalen Richard still on the COVID list, we can expect that role to stick.

The only downside for Jacobs is that final question above: will the Raiders do anything offensively? Derek Carr has averaged 0.03 Passing NEP per drop back without Henry Ruggs, and he was at -0.01 in the first matchup with the Chiefs even with that game at home and indoors. If they can't move the ball, then it's hard for even an 80%-snap back to pay off.

That's what keeps Jacobs from sitting atop the $7,000 range. Fournette leads this tier regardless. If McKissic sits, then Gibson would be second; his offense has been more functional than the Raiders' recently. If McKissic plays, then Gibson and Jacobs are on relatively even footing, and both would be good plays at their salaries.

You can also give at least some thought to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this game. Edwards-Helaire's role since returning has been underwhelming with Darrel Williams still getting work in the passing game. Still, CEH's salary is just $6,500, and he has topped 75 yards from scrimmage in both games. If we don't get value to open up elsewhere, Edwards-Helaire would be an option -- especially if you need help offsetting the salaries of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, or Travis Kelce.

The final piece worth mentioning in this game is Foster Moreau. Moreau's role last week was underwhelming as he ran a route on just 25 of 40 drop backs and netted 3 targets. Still, all three of those targets were deep, and we could use the salary savings at $5,200. Cook is the preferred low-salaried tight end, but at least some exposure to Moreau is permissible -- especially when stacking this game.

The Panthers Without CMC

I typically like to work with "most relevant samples," leaning on what workload players have gotten in similar contexts to what they'll experience the coming week.

With the Carolina Panthers' backfield, I don't think we have a relevant sample.

When Christian McCaffrey was down earlier in the year, Chuba Hubbard got a healthy workload. The problem is that he sputtered in that volume, eventually leading to the emergence of Ameer Abdullah.

With McCaffrey healthy, Abdullah has out-snapped Hubbard in four straight games. This was all in relief of McCaffrey, but it's at least clear that Hubbard is no longer the clear backup. It's going to be a mix.

The most likely scenario is Hubbard handling the early-down work while Abdullah mixes in there and handles the passing-game work. That's not a split we want for fantasy -- especially inside this inefficient offense. You can consider Cam Newton to save salary or D.J. Moore as a pivot in a loaded tier, but that's about it for this offense until we learn more.

Julio Jones' Return

The Tennessee Titans are starved for healthy wideouts. They've got a good one on the verge of returning.

This doesn't mean Julio Jones will definitely return this week. But if he does, he merits consideration.

We don't have a sample yet on Jones without A.J. Brown. In the games Brown played without Jones, though, he handled 22.9% of the targets. If Jones were to get that, it'd at least put him in play at $6,500.

It wouldn't make him a priority, though. Jones is right beneath some full-blown studs in salary, and we haven't seen him get more than eight targets in a game this year. Plus, the re-injury risk here is ever-present. He'd be purely a tournament play, but in this matchup, he'd be worth a look.

Unfortunately, Jones is likely the only Titan we can consider. Although D'Onta Foreman's salary looks tempting, that backfield seems likely to be a committee with Jeremy McNichols trending toward a return. That's a situation we're likely better off just ignoring.

Targets for the Taking in Cleveland

We know the Cleveland Browns aren't going to sling it against the Baltimore Ravens, especially with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both healthy. But when they do throw, the target tree may be narrower than usual.

That's because Harrison Bryant has been ruled out, and David Njoku is currently on the COVID list. Njoku has averaged four targets per game since Odell Beckham's departure, and Bryant would mix in, as well. That's enough to make a difference.

The three guys in line to benefit are Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Landry's salary is $6,400, which is pretty lofty for a banged-up slot receiver. But both Hooper and Peoples-Jones bring salary relief and are at least interesting.

Even with Njoku active in Week 10, Hooper did earn seven targets. For a $5,000 tight end, that's not too bad. The Ravens have also struggled to slow tight ends this year, meaning Hooper is on par with Cook and above Moreau among the value tight ends.

Peoples-Jones is hyper-volatile, but he has shown upside this year on limited volume. He has 86-plus yards twice and 70 yards in another game, and he's at a 15.5% target share in games he has played since Beckham left. It's very much a prayer-level play, but Peoples-Jones does have the ceiling you need out of a $5,300 play.

Acknowledging Devonta Freeman

We might have to do cringe-worthy things to make lineups work this week depending on how the value breaks. That could include giving Devonta Freeman a look at $6,300.

Freeman's role shifted in Week 13. He played 68.1% of the snaps -- the most for any Ravens back this year. His 30 adjusted opportunities were actually the second time he had topped 28 in the past three games, and he had 80-plus yards in both.

If I'm willing to consider Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I should absolutely give Freeman some thought. Both are limited backs who bring salary relief on a slate where we may need it. The optimal choices on the Ravens are still Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, but Freeman -- begrudgingly -- belongs in our player pool.