NFL

​Week 12 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Tyler Higbee Should Be Scoring More Touchdowns

Robby Gal  —  @robbygal0719 Nov 30th, 2021
Tyler Higbee should have more touchdowns than he does given his solid red-zone role. What other players had interesting changes in their usage during Week 12?

The tumble continues for stud assets floundering when we need them most. Whether it's by injury or game plan, more outlier-type players are having an impact and have to be considered as we near the fantasy playoffs.

It's not easy to sit studs players, but if you sat the entire Seattle Seahawks offense, you might have had an easier time escaping with a win. It's decisions like that where we keep thinking "this is the week" while a less attractive option goes off on our bench.

Consider the waiver wire as chips keep falling during the 2021 NFL season.

Rushing Market Shares

Phillip Lindsay, Dolphins

Phillip Lindsay is nobody’s idea of a lead back, but on Sunday he had 12 carries for 42 yards and a 36% market share for the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Lindsay will compete with Myles Gaskin, who led the team with 16 carries for 49 yards. Gaskin has only exceeded a 60% snap rate four times this season. Miami is not committing to him as their lead back by any means, and a meager 30.2% rushing success rate might be why.

In deep leagues, Lindsay is at least worth a flier. If for no other reason, he's at the very least a great handcuff with access to Gaskin's pre-Lindsay role should Gaskin suffer an injury.

Ameer Abdullah, Panthers

With Christian McCaffrey going down for the season, attention turns to the Carolina Panthers' backfield.

Ameer Abdullah has out-snapped Chuba Hubbard in the past four games. Abdullah played 26 snaps (49.1%) compared to just 10 for Hubbard in Week 12.

Abdullah was unproductive on four touches, but he is the clear passing down option of the two with a larger workload in the most recent sample.

The Panthers' offense is awful, and there's a good chance they see plenty of negative game scripts moving forward. In that case, Abdullah could be the more valuable grab of the two.

Receiving Market Shares

Josh Reynolds, Lions

Josh Reynolds had 3 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets for the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.

Reynolds has seen at least an 86% snap rate in both games he's been fully up to speed off waivers. That has made for 20.8% target share, and the long touchdown leading to production will likely only further solidify that role.

Only T.J. Hockenson is a true threat for targets, and the anemic Lions' offense will be trailing and throwing plenty.

Reynolds has flex spot upside down the stretch.

Zay Jones, Raiders

Zay Jones operates under the radar most weeks and behind Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller.

Waller is hurt for Week 13, and Renfrow does not have the ability to play consistently outside of the hashes, so there is work to be had for the Las Vegas Raiders on the perimeter.

On Thanksgiving, Jones had 5 receptions for 59 yards on 7 targets for Vegas. He has clearly separated from Bryan Edwards, who was not targeted in a game with 36 pass attempts.

Jones has run 77.6% of the Raiders' routes the past three weeks without Henry Ruggs. DeSean Jackson might be good for a splash play or two, but Jones is receiving the workload that's actually worth a speculative add.

Red-Zone Market Shares

James Robinson, Jaguars

Don't let Robinson's 56.5% snap rate in Week 12 fool you. He's closer to a buy than a sell at the moment.

Robinson was benched for a short period of the game for a fumble, but he was quickly reinserted on the basis of carving the Falcons' defense up for a 50% rushing success rate.

With 19 red-zone touches and 51.4% of the red-zone running back carries for the Jaguars, Robinson is getting a good look at a touchdown nearly twice a game. He's the only Jacksonville player seeing more than one red-zone touch per game.

When the Jags get inside the five-yard-line, Robinson sees his running back carry share increase to 66.7%. He's turned that into seven scores this season, and although he's outperforming his expected touchdown rate, it's just hard to see his opportunity vanishing in such a talentless offense.

Tyler Higbee, Rams

Tight end is a terrible position, so upside is always welcome.

On an offense now down Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee ranks in the top 10 in red-zone receiving targets (14), but he has only scored three touchdowns this season. Based on his looks, Higbee should have closer to five touchdowns.

Despite all of the options for the Los Angeles Rams, Higbee still gets 17.9% of the red-zone receiving share. That increases to 22.2% when they get inside the five-yard line.

Some players may never perform to their peripherals, and time is running out on Higbee to do so. However, after just a single catch in Sunday's game in Green Bay, he can likely be had for cheap if you want to take a swing for the fences.