NFL

Monday Night Football Betting: Could Tom Brady Possibly Lose Three Games in a Row?

The Bucs are 0-7 against the spread in primetime games with Brady. Is this the night they finally cover?

Defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a two-game skid, and the New York Giants come to town having won two of their last three games -- keeping pace with the Chiefs in their only close loss.

Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):

Team nERD nERD Rank Off NEP Rank Def NEP Rank
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9.21 4 1 10
New York Giants -3.67 23 24 16

Inside the Standard Bets

Our model is heavily favoring the Buccaneers, having them winning outright 75.8% of the time and covering the 11-point spread only 39.3% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Buccaneers moneyline odds are a whopping -520. Comparing that implied probability of 83.9% to our model’s win probability, we see that’s not the bet to make.

The Giants' odds to win at +400 (20% implied) is the better moneyline value and are rated as a one-star bet.

If the Giants are able to pull off the upset it would give Tom Brady the second-longest regular-season losing streak of his career when he lost four straight games way back in 2002. Since then, his teams haven’t lost more than two consecutive games.

Each team’s odds to cover their spread are set at -110 (52.4%) and with our model giving the Giants a 58.6% chance to cover; that's a two-star wager. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Buccaneers have not covered the spread for a primetime game in seven tries.

The point total line for this matchup is set at 49.5 points. Our model gives a 59.8% chance the points won’t come and rates taking the under as a two-start bet.

Player Prop Value Bets

numberFire’s player projection model puts Giant's rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney's projected stat line tonight at 5.08 receptions, 54.62 receiving yards, and 0.26 touchdowns. When I started this article the receiving prop for Toney’s receiving output was 38.5 yards and at -113 odds, and I hope you were able to grab that over.

Now that line has jumped up a bit (41.5 | -110), but our projections still have the over as a good bet. I also like getting nice odds on Toney’s over for receptions as well (4.5 | +132).

We have Kenny Golladay projected to rake in 58.33 receiving yards, which is over his 50.5-yard prop. With Sterling Shepard out this week, this lines up well for Golladay and Toney to get the bulk of the receiving work. Tampa Bay is also in the middle of the pack in yards allowed to wide receivers per game, at 163.1.

It’s hard to bet against Tom Brady doing anything -- I get it. That's especially the case when he doesn’t lose three games in a row as I mentioned earlier. But, just because he pretty much always wins that third game after two losses doesn’t mean he is lights-out.

Over his career, Brady has averaged 227.81 passing yards per game after two losses with a median of 219 yards. His last two such games while the Buccaneers quarterback he has put up 217 and 196 passing yards. The Giants' defense hasn't been a pushover this year through the air, giving up just over 260 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They're 13th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense metric.

Our model is projecting 273.88 passing yards for Brady which is less than his 294.5 passing yard line -- so we’re taking the under (-110) here.

Final Notes

Tampa Bay is 6-2 against-the-spread (ATS) over their last eight home games, but as mentioned above, those two losses came during primetime games.

Despite not winning a primetime game during the Joe Judge era, his teams are 4-2 ATS when the lights are on -- including 3-0 ATS on the road.

Tampa Bay is just 3-6 ATS this year. New York is 5-4.