Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 12
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | $8,200 | 21.5 | 2.62 | 16.1 | 26.7 | 33.3% | 1.68 |
| Jalen Hurts | $8,400 | 21.5 | 2.56 | 15.8 | 27.1 | 34.7% | 1.44 |
| Justin Herbert | $7,800 | 21.2 | 2.72 | 15.7 | 26.9 | 34.2% | 2.05 |
| Cam Newton | $8,000 | 18.9 | 2.37 | 13.7 | 23.7 | 21.1% | 0.94 |
| Tyrod Taylor | $7,400 | 18.6 | 2.51 | 13.2 | 23.8 | 20.0% | 1.26 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,700 | 18.4 | 2.39 | 13.5 | 23.3 | 17.5% | 1.08 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,900 | 17.9 | 2.26 | 13.1 | 22.7 | 16.4% | 0.74 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,300 | 17.5 | 2.39 | 12.5 | 22.4 | 16.0% | 1.02 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,100 | 17.3 | 2.44 | 12.1 | 22.6 | 15.1% | 1.16 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,700 | 17.2 | 2.57 | 11.9 | 22.0 | 14.3% | 1.32 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,500 | 17.1 | 2.28 | 12.5 | 22.1 | 14.9% | 0.81 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,100 | 16.9 | 2.38 | 11.9 | 22.0 | 13.5% | 1.05 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,000 | 16.9 | 2.41 | 12.0 | 21.9 | 15.4% | 1.05 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $6,500 | 16.8 | 2.59 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 13.3% | 1.49 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,100 | 16.3 | 2.30 | 11.6 | 21.7 | 12.3% | 0.89 |
| Mac Jones | $6,800 | 16.3 | 2.39 | 11.7 | 21.8 | 13.5% | 1.08 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,200 | 15.8 | 2.55 | 11.1 | 20.8 | 10.1% | 1.38 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,900 | 15.8 | 2.29 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 12.0% | 0.80 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $6,600 | 14.6 | 2.21 | 9.7 | 19.3 | 6.9% | 0.70 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,200 | 14.2 | 1.97 | 9.2 | 19.0 | 7.5% | 0.41 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,700 | 20.5 | 2.12 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 52.1% | 1.97 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $9,800 | 19.3 | 1.97 | 13.4 | 25.7 | 48.2% | 1.63 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,400 | 17.0 | 2.02 | 11.0 | 22.9 | 37.8% | 1.66 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,100 | 16.8 | 2.08 | 10.9 | 22.5 | 35.7% | 1.80 |
| Najee Harris | $8,800 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 10.7 | 20.8 | 28.3% | 1.00 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,000 | 15.2 | 1.90 | 9.8 | 20.6 | 27.8% | 1.35 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,800 | 14.6 | 1.87 | 8.9 | 20.0 | 24.9% | 1.20 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,500 | 14.4 | 1.92 | 9.3 | 20.2 | 25.6% | 1.37 |
| James Robinson | $7,600 | 14.1 | 1.85 | 8.9 | 19.3 | 21.7% | 1.23 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,100 | 13.8 | 1.95 | 8.6 | 18.8 | 19.4% | 1.36 |
| Myles Gaskin | $6,200 | 13.0 | 2.10 | 7.8 | 18.2 | 17.6% | 1.64 |
| Darrell Henderson | $7,300 | 12.8 | 1.76 | 8.0 | 18.2 | 17.3% | 1.01 |
| A.J. Dillon | $6,900 | 12.2 | 1.76 | 6.7 | 17.0 | 15.2% | 0.97 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $6,800 | 11.2 | 1.65 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 9.9% | 0.79 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,300 | 11.1 | 1.76 | 6.4 | 15.8 | 8.5% | 1.02 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,100 | 10.8 | 1.77 | 6.2 | 15.4 | 8.5% | 1.04 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,200 | 10.7 | 2.06 | 5.6 | 15.2 | 7.9% | 1.50 |
| Javonte Williams | $5,700 | 10.4 | 1.82 | 5.2 | 15.3 | 8.9% | 1.07 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,900 | 10.0 | 1.69 | 5.1 | 14.8 | 8.1% | 0.92 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,500 | 9.6 | 1.75 | 5.3 | 14.3 | 7.1% | 1.02 |
| David Johnson | $5,400 | 9.4 | 1.74 | 4.7 | 14.0 | 5.5% | 0.95 |
| Damien Harris | $6,000 | 9.2 | 1.54 | 4.7 | 13.9 | 5.2% | 0.71 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,700 | 9.2 | 1.62 | 4.2 | 13.5 | 4.2% | 0.81 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,000 | 8.9 | 1.27 | 4.8 | 13.3 | 3.4% | 0.36 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.55 | 4.3 | 13.2 | 4.1% | 0.71 |
| Tevin Coleman | $5,600 | 8.7 | 1.55 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 2.5% | 0.73 |
| Jeff Wilson | $5,800 | 6.1 | 1.05 | 1.8 | 10.4 | 0.9% | 0.29 |
| Boston Scott | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.14 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 1.1% | 0.38 |
| Sony Michel | $5,100 | 5.9 | 1.15 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 0.8% | 0.34 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,200 | 5.3 | 1.01 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 0.6% | 0.33 |
| Mike Davis | $5,900 | 5.1 | 0.87 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 0.3% | 0.17 |
| Ronald Jones | $5,600 | 4.4 | 0.78 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 0.2% | 0.14 |
| Samaje Perine | $5,000 | 4.3 | 0.86 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 0.3% | 0.21 |
| Wayne Gallman | $5,000 | 4.0 | 0.81 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 0.1% | 0.18 |
| Brandon Bolden | $4,900 | 4.0 | 0.81 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 0.4% | 0.21 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $9,500 | 17.9 | 1.88 | 13.7 | 22.1 | 37.0% | 1.59 |
| Davante Adams | $8,700 | 17.0 | 1.95 | 11.6 | 21.8 | 33.6% | 1.54 |
| Deebo Samuel | $8,000 | 15.8 | 1.97 | 12.0 | 19.5 | 22.9% | 1.94 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,100 | 14.6 | 1.80 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 25.0% | 1.11 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,000 | 14.6 | 2.08 | 10.3 | 18.5 | 18.6% | 2.04 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,600 | 14.5 | 1.90 | 10.1 | 18.2 | 17.8% | 1.41 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $7,700 | 14.5 | 1.88 | 9.1 | 19.6 | 23.5% | 1.24 |
| Diontae Johnson | $7,100 | 13.1 | 1.85 | 8.6 | 17.7 | 16.2% | 1.24 |
| Mike Evans | $7,500 | 12.8 | 1.71 | 8.2 | 17.6 | 16.4% | 0.92 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,200 | 12.5 | 1.74 | 8.1 | 16.8 | 11.0% | 0.98 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,500 | 11.6 | 1.79 | 6.9 | 16.2 | 11.8% | 1.11 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,600 | 11.6 | 1.75 | 7.3 | 15.1 | 6.8% | 0.97 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,700 | 11.4 | 1.71 | 6.2 | 16.2 | 11.8% | 0.93 |
| DeVonta Smith | $6,400 | 11.1 | 1.73 | 5.8 | 16.0 | 13.0% | 0.93 |
| Elijah Moore | $6,400 | 10.7 | 1.66 | 6.2 | 15.2 | 7.0% | 0.86 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,700 | 10.6 | 1.58 | 6.8 | 14.3 | 4.7% | 0.66 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,900 | 10.4 | 1.76 | 5.7 | 15.1 | 8.9% | 1.05 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,500 | 10.4 | 1.60 | 5.9 | 14.8 | 6.9% | 0.74 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,900 | 10.3 | 1.74 | 5.7 | 14.9 | 7.5% | 1.02 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,100 | 10.2 | 1.67 | 4.9 | 15.3 | 10.1% | 0.90 |
| Mike Williams | $6,600 | 10.1 | 1.53 | 5.8 | 14.4 | 6.0% | 0.66 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,300 | 10.0 | 1.59 | 6.2 | 14.0 | 4.4% | 0.72 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,200 | 9.8 | 1.58 | 5.9 | 14.5 | 6.2% | 0.75 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,900 | 9.4 | 1.59 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 2.1% | 0.72 |
| Van Jefferson | $5,400 | 9.1 | 1.69 | 5.0 | 12.9 | 3.0% | 0.88 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,700 | 9.0 | 1.57 | 5.6 | 12.7 | 1.7% | 0.72 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,000 | 8.9 | 1.49 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 4.5% | 0.63 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,600 | 8.4 | 1.51 | 5.4 | 11.5 | 0.6% | 0.54 |
| Russell Gage | $5,700 | 7.9 | 1.39 | 4.7 | 11.4 | 1.4% | 0.46 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,500 | 7.9 | 1.44 | 3.4 | 12.5 | 3.6% | 0.64 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $5,800 | 7.8 | 1.35 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 0.4% | 0.37 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,800 | 7.8 | 1.34 | 4.6 | 11.1 | 0.5% | 0.38 |
| Odell Beckham | $5,800 | 7.6 | 1.31 | 3.3 | 12.0 | 3.5% | 0.47 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,700 | 7.5 | 1.31 | 4.6 | 10.5 | 0.1% | 0.32 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,400 | 7.3 | 1.35 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 1.2% | 0.44 |
| Tim Patrick | $5,700 | 7.2 | 1.26 | 3.6 | 10.7 | 0.4% | 0.34 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | $5,000 | 7.1 | 1.43 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 0.7% | 0.61 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,400 | 6.9 | 1.28 | 3.4 | 10.4 | 0.3% | 0.39 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,500 | 6.8 | 1.24 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 1.2% | 0.36 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,600 | 6.8 | 1.22 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 2.2% | 0.41 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,300 | 6.3 | 1.18 | 2.9 | 9.5 | 0.1% | 0.31 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $5,500 | 6.3 | 1.14 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 0.6% | 0.26 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,100 | 6.1 | 1.20 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 0.3% | 0.34 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.10 | 2.8 | 8.8 | 0.0% | 0.18 |
| Chester Rogers | $5,300 | 5.8 | 1.10 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 0.3% | 0.26 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.06 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 0.0% | 0.23 |
| John Ross | $5,200 | 5.2 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| Nico Collins | $5,300 | 4.9 | 0.93 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,900 | 4.8 | 0.97 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 0.0% | 0.16 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,100 | 4.6 | 0.90 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
| Albert Wilson | $4,900 | 4.5 | 0.92 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Keelan Cole | $4,900 | 4.4 | 0.89 | 1.2 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| Jalen Reagor | $5,000 | 4.3 | 0.86 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 0.1% | 0.14 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,300 | 4.2 | 0.80 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.04 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | $6,600 | 12.1 | 1.84 | 6.8 | 16.5 | 33.9% | 1.11 |
| George Kittle | $6,700 | 12.1 | 1.80 | 7.9 | 15.9 | 30.0% | 1.06 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,900 | 9.9 | 1.67 | 5.5 | 14.1 | 20.4% | 0.86 |
| Rob Gronkowski | $6,500 | 9.1 | 1.40 | 5.3 | 13.0 | 14.8% | 0.46 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,300 | 8.0 | 1.51 | 4.2 | 11.7 | 8.2% | 0.63 |
| Dan Arnold | $5,100 | 7.9 | 1.55 | 4.2 | 11.9 | 13.8% | 0.72 |
| Mike Gesicki | $6,200 | 7.9 | 1.27 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 14.1% | 0.42 |
| Noah Fant | $5,900 | 7.8 | 1.31 | 3.9 | 11.4 | 10.0% | 0.40 |
| Evan Engram | $5,500 | 7.3 | 1.33 | 3.6 | 10.9 | 7.2% | 0.42 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,400 | 7.3 | 1.35 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 5.8% | 0.41 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.18 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 5.7% | 0.28 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,300 | 6.5 | 1.22 | 3.3 | 9.6 | 4.2% | 0.32 |
| Jared Cook | $5,000 | 6.4 | 1.27 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 4.9% | 0.43 |
| Pharaoh Brown | $4,500 | 5.3 | 1.17 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 1.7% | 0.34 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $5,200 | 5.3 | 1.01 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 1.7% | 0.15 |
| Jack Doyle | $4,600 | 4.9 | 1.06 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 1.0% | 0.26 |
| Geoff Swaim | $4,400 | 4.5 | 1.03 | 1.9 | 7.3 | 1.0% | 0.23 |
| Donald Parham Jr. | $4,700 | 3.9 | 0.83 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 0.1% | 0.12 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,600 | 3.8 | 0.83 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 0.4% | 0.15 |
| Anthony Firkser | $4,800 | 3.8 | 0.79 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 1.2% | 0.13 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,600 | 3.8 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 0.6% | 0.15 |
| Ryan Griffin | $4,800 | 3.7 | 0.76 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,500 | 3.6 | 0.81 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 0.9% | 0.15 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $4,500 | 3.6 | 0.80 | 0.9 | 6.6 | 0.7% | 0.14 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $4,900 | 3.5 | 0.71 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 0.1% | 0.08 |
