NFL Betting Guide: Week 11
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Titans Moneyline (-430): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Tennessee Titans are 10-point favorites against the Houston Texans. While that alone doesn't ensure a win (in the past three weeks we've seen the New York Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars shock the Buffalo Bills), it's a pretty dang good indicator. While -430 odds may not seem very attractive, sometimes you have to spend a lot of money to make money. Our model thinks you should do so by betting on the Titans this week.
Despite not having league-leading rusher Derrick Henry the past two weeks (yes, he's still tied for the league lead in rushing yards, amazingly), the Titans have still found ways to move the ball en route to wins over the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. Compared to those two teams, who are seventh and fifth, respectively, in our nERD rankings, the 31st-ranked Texans (1-8) shouldn't be an issue.
Tennessee is on a three-game winning streak against the Texans. They've been double-digit favorites just twice in the past eight seasons, winning both of those games by at least nine points.
While the Bills and Bengals showed that double-digit favorites can lose, both favorites lost on the road. Home double-digit favorites are on a 21-game winning streak. The winning margin in those games has been single digits just five times.
numberFire gives the Titans an 85.7% chance of walking away with a win this week, projecting them to win by 12.9 points. The -430 moneyline implies win odds of just 81.1%. With an expected return of $105.66 for every $100 wagered, we mark the Titans moneyline as a three-star play.
Under 50.5 (-110): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Following a somewhat embarrassing Week 8 loss to the New York Jets and subsequent Week 9 thrashing at the hands of the Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati Bengals' bye week couldn't have arrived at a better time. With a week off to regroup, the Bengals head to Nevada, looking to move to 6-4 as they take on the Las Vegas Raiders in a game our model sees as a low-scoring affair.
The Raiders have clearly had a tumultuous season, losing both their head coach and a starting wide receiver to off-the-field transgressions. The impacts of those absences are notable, especially the departure of Henry Ruggs.
Without Ruggs' consistent deep threat on the field, the Raiders' offense has been stymied. While Hunter Renfrow has benefited (he has seven receptions and a score in each of his last two games), the offense overall has been bad. The Raiders have put up just 30 combined points in the past two weeks, including 14 last week against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is the sixth-worst unit in the league by our metrics. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they'll likely need to go to the air again this week to win. Their 85.0 rushing yards per game (fifth-worst in the league) is going up against a Bengals rush defense that we rank seventh.
In 2020, the Raiders scored 28.0 points per game with Ruggs and 23.3 without. In 2021, those numbers are 25.7 and 15.0, respectively.
The under is on a 4-0 streak when a team coming off a bye week has faced a team coming off two losses. We see that moving to 5-0 after these two teams play. We project them to combine for just 42.9 points. We give the under a 70.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a four-unit wager.
Under 47.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Seattle Seahawks were hoping that their season would turn around when Russell Wilson
returned last week. That was not the case. The Seahawks put up just 208
yards of offense and turned the ball over twice in a 17-0 loss that was
the first shutout of Wilson's career.
The 'Hawks will look to regroup this week at home when they take on the Arizona Cardinals. Our model does not anticipate a high-scoring divisional affair.
In the past 10 seasons, the under is 17-9 when home teams have been shut out the previous game. The under has hit the last five times a team has come into a Week-11-or-later game with three or fewer wins and having been blanked the previous game. Three out of the last four games in the Seahawks-Cardinals series have gone the way of the under.
We project the Cards and Hawks to combine for 44.5 points this week. We give the under a 59.2% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.