Monday Night Football Betting: Can Sean McVay Solve His Kyle Shanahan Puzzle?
The Los Angeles Rams have an opportunity to pull even with the Arizona Cardinals atop the NFC West by heading up I-5 and taking down the San Francisco 49ers. I also heard the Rams signed some obscure wide receiver, but there wasn't much reported about it (insert winking emoji).
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
| Team | nERD | nERD Rank | Off NEP Rank | Def NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.14 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
With an exact zero nERD rating, numberFire has the 49ers as an example of an exactly average team.
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is giving the slightest edge to the Rams, having them winning outright 54.6% of the time and covering the 3.5-point spread only 41% of the time. At NFL odds, the Rams moneyline odds are -180 (implied probability 64.3%), and their odds to cover the spread are set at -110 (52.4%).
Given our model is predicting a very close game, the value bets will be on the 49ers' side. The 49ers to cover (-112 odds, 54.95% implied) and winning outright (+150, 40%) are rated as two- and one-star wagers, respectively.
The point total line for this matchup is set at 50.5 points. Our model gives a 60.8% chance that the line is too high, and we’ll see the under hit tonight. We have this also as a two-star bet.
Player Prop Value Bets
Cooper “Fantasy League Winner” Kupp's receiving line is sitting at 96.5 yards (-110 odds), and while it’s not easy to bet a receiver will go over nearly 100 yards receiving in a game, this seems like the time to hammer the over.
With Robert Woods out for the season with an ACL tear and Odell Beckham just signed this week (but expected to play), we can expect Kupp to be on the field a lot tonight. Per Pro Football Reference, in games in which he is on the field for at least 90% of the Rams’ offensive snaps (five of eight games this season), he is averaging 117.2 receiving yards on an average of 12 targets.
numberFire’s player projections also point to Kupp going over this total as we have his receiving output projected at 109.24 yards for tonight.
Our projection model also implies taking the over on 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell’s rushing yardage prop bet as he is projected for 74.46 yards, and his rushing line is set at 62.5 yards at -110 odds.
Final Notes
The 49ers are 0-4 against-the-spread (ATS) at home this season, and they are 2-6 ATS this season overall. The Rams are 2-2 ATS on the road and 4-5 overall.
Each time the Rams have covered on the road this season, the game has fallen under the point total betting line.
The 49ers are 5-3 against the Rams overall and 6-2 ATS since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay were hired in 2017. The 49ers are also 4-1 ATS in games against L.A. started by Jimmy Garoppolo.
San Francisco has also won and covered each of the last four meetings.
