NFL
Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 10
FanDuel matchups and tournaments are won and lost because of floor and ceiling outcomes. How does the Week 10 main slate look after a thousand simulations?

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
25+
FDP%
Boom/
Bust
Ratio
Josh Allen $8,700 26.2 3.02 20.3 32.7 54.2% 3.60
Justin Herbert $8,000 23.5 2.94 17.8 28.2 41.7% 3.01
Dak Prescott $8,100 23.0 2.84 17.8 28.3 39.2% 2.79
Tom Brady $8,300 22.5 2.71 17.1 27.4 36.6% 2.09
Carson Wentz $7,500 19.8 2.65 14.9 24.8 24.1% 1.84
Aaron Rodgers $7,800 19.8 2.54 14.8 24.9 24.7% 1.37
Jalen Hurts $7,700 19.1 2.49 13.4 24.8 24.5% 1.24
Matt Ryan $7,300 18.5 2.53 13.3 23.1 17.9% 1.34
Teddy Bridgewater $7,200 17.9 2.48 12.9 23.3 18.3% 1.29
Russell Wilson $7,500 17.8 2.38 12.7 23.1 17.9% 0.99
Kirk Cousins $7,600 17.1 2.25 12.6 22.6 17.0% 0.78
Ryan Tannehill $7,400 16.7 2.26 12.1 22.2 14.4% 0.83
Mac Jones $6,500 16.3 2.51 11.7 21.6 12.9% 1.37
Kyler Murray $8,300 16.1 1.94 11.2 22.2 14.8% 0.44
Taylor Heinicke $6,900 16.1 2.33 11.0 21.6 13.1% 0.98
Trevor Lawrence $6,600 15.7 2.38 10.4 19.9 9.4% 0.94
Mason Rudolph $6,300 15.7 2.49 10.4 20.4 9.7% 1.16
Baker Mayfield $6,800 15.0 2.20 10.3 19.9 9.5% 0.74
Mike White $6,700 13.5 2.01 9.1 18.2 4.6% 0.49
Jared Goff $6,500 13.3 2.05 8.8 17.8 5.2% 0.51
P.J. Walker $6,200 12.5 2.02 8.0 17.2 4.8% 0.52
Trevor Siemian $7,000 12.0 1.72 7.4 16.5 2.2% 0.24
Taysom Hill $7,300 6.5 0.89 2.0 10.9 0.0% 0.01

Running Back

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom/
Bust
Ratio
Najee Harris $9,400 19.9 2.11 14.3 25.8 49.6% 2.32
Jonathan Taylor $9,400 18.7 1.99 12.4 25.0 44.0% 1.64
Austin Ekeler $8,600 18.7 2.17 12.8 24.8 44.9% 2.27
Christian McCaffrey $9,000 17.3 1.92 10.9 22.8 36.5% 1.30
D'Andre Swift $7,300 17.0 2.33 11.5 22.8 37.1% 2.70
Dalvin Cook $8,500 17.0 2.00 11.9 22.5 34.5% 1.70
Aaron Jones $8,200 16.9 2.06 11.1 22.0 34.2% 1.76
Ezekiel Elliott $8,000 16.7 2.09 11.3 22.4 35.0% 1.90
James Conner $7,000 16.2 2.31 10.8 21.9 31.6% 2.43
Cordarrelle Patterson $7,800 15.6 2.00 9.7 21.0 28.6% 1.57
D'Ernest Johnson $5,400 15.4 2.85 9.8 20.7 28.6% 4.11
Leonard Fournette $7,400 14.8 2.00 9.3 20.1 25.3% 1.52
Mark Ingram $5,500 14.1 2.56 9.2 19.2 22.0% 3.05
Michael Carter $6,100 12.8 2.11 7.9 17.6 16.4% 1.74
Melvin Gordon $6,300 10.9 1.73 6.2 15.9 9.3% 0.96
James Robinson $7,500 10.6 1.41 6.0 15.0 6.7% 0.47
Antonio Gibson $6,200 9.9 1.60 4.8 15.0 7.1% 0.76
Javonte Williams $5,800 9.6 1.65 5.1 14.2 7.4% 0.87
Brandon Bolden $5,100 9.1 1.78 4.4 13.5 5.1% 1.04
Zack Moss $6,000 8.9 1.49 4.6 13.8 5.9% 0.66
Alex Collins $5,700 8.9 1.56 4.6 13.3 4.5% 0.77
Devin Singletary $6,000 8.7 1.45 4.6 13.0 5.4% 0.59
Rhamondre Stevenson $5,400 8.5 1.57 4.1 12.5 3.4% 0.74
Adrian Peterson $5,900 8.4 1.42 4.1 12.6 4.6% 0.56
Mike Davis $5,400 8.4 1.55 3.8 12.3 3.1% 0.68
A.J. Dillon $5,300 8.2 1.55 3.9 12.5 2.5% 0.76
Tony Pollard $6,500 8.2 1.26 3.8 12.2 3.8% 0.35
J.D. McKissic $5,400 8.1 1.50 3.4 12.4 3.8% 0.67
Nyheim Hines $5,600 8.0 1.43 3.3 12.4 3.9% 0.59
Jeremy McNichols $6,400 7.8 1.21 3.5 12.3 2.8% 0.38
Jordan Howard $5,900 7.1 1.21 3.2 11.4 1.3% 0.37
Ty Johnson $5,300 5.9 1.12 2.0 10.6 1.0% 0.40
Ronald Jones $5,000 5.4 1.09 1.3 9.0 0.5% 0.31
Boston Scott $5,600 5.4 0.97 1.5 9.6 0.1% 0.24
J.J. Taylor $4,800 5.2 1.08 1.2 8.7 0.3% 0.30
Alexander Mattison $6,100 4.9 0.81 1.0 8.7 0.4% 0.12
Eno Benjamin $5,200 4.7 0.90 1.4 8.6 0.5% 0.23
Tony Jones Jr. $4,600 4.7 1.01 1.2 8.7 0.2% 0.35
D'Onta Foreman $5,000 4.6 0.92 0.8 8.5 0.3% 0.26
Johnny Stanton $4,500 4.6 1.02 0.9 8.4 0.1% 0.34

Wide Receiver

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
20+
FDP%
Boom
/Bust
Ratio
Davante Adams $8,700 17.7 2.04 12.8 23.1 37.8% 1.98
Mike Evans $7,400 15.8 2.14 10.4 21.0 29.4% 2.00
A.J. Brown $7,600 15.5 2.04 10.1 20.6 27.4% 1.65
Stefon Diggs $7,900 14.5 1.83 9.4 19.1 20.7% 1.10
CeeDee Lamb $7,700 14.2 1.85 10.1 17.9 15.1% 1.19
Keenan Allen $7,200 14.2 1.97 10.5 18.5 17.7% 1.78
D.K. Metcalf $8,000 13.8 1.72 9.1 19.1 20.1% 0.97
Diontae Johnson $7,400 13.7 1.85 9.0 18.6 17.4% 1.27
Amari Cooper $7,300 13.5 1.85 9.4 17.9 15.6% 1.26
Justin Jefferson $7,500 13.3 1.77 8.3 18.0 17.1% 1.05
Terry McLaurin $7,100 13.3 1.87 7.9 18.0 15.9% 1.22
Tyler Lockett $7,100 12.8 1.80 8.2 17.1 14.0% 1.08
Chris Godwin $7,800 12.8 1.64 8.8 16.5 9.3% 0.72
Michael Pittman Jr. $7,200 12.5 1.74 8.3 16.9 11.5% 1.00
Mike Williams $6,900 12.3 1.79 7.5 17.4 15.3% 1.07
Adam Thielen $7,000 12.2 1.74 7.9 16.1 10.8% 0.95
D.J. Moore $6,800 11.7 1.72 6.6 17.0 17.7% 0.96
DeVonta Smith $6,200 10.5 1.69 5.3 15.4 9.3% 0.91
Jarvis Landry $6,100 10.2 1.68 6.7 14.1 3.6% 0.88
Cole Beasley $6,100 10.2 1.67 7.1 13.7 3.3% 0.85
Marvin Jones $5,900 9.8 1.66 5.4 13.8 6.2% 0.83
Jakobi Meyers $5,500 9.8 1.78 5.9 13.9 3.9% 1.03
Emmanuel Sanders $6,300 9.8 1.55 5.9 13.8 4.9% 0.67
Jerry Jeudy $6,200 9.6 1.55 4.3 14.4 8.1% 0.73
Courtland Sutton $6,600 9.5 1.44 5.0 14.6 8.2% 0.60
Christian Kirk $6,700 9.2 1.38 5.2 13.3 2.8% 0.45
Russell Gage $6,000 8.9 1.49 5.6 12.3 1.3% 0.53
Corey Davis $6,200 8.7 1.40 4.7 12.9 2.6% 0.53
DeAndre Hopkins $7,100 8.3 1.18 5.4 11.5 1.0% 0.15
A.J. Green $5,600 8.3 1.49 4.4 12.4 2.2% 0.64
Michael Gallup $5,500 7.7 1.41 3.7 11.8 1.3% 0.55
Laviska Shenault $5,500 7.7 1.40 4.8 10.7 0.6% 0.42
T.Y. Hilton $6,000 7.7 1.28 4.0 11.7 1.4% 0.38
Zach Pascal $5,600 7.6 1.36 3.8 11.5 1.6% 0.48
Tim Patrick $6,000 7.6 1.27 4.2 11.2 1.4% 0.36
Rondale Moore $5,400 7.5 1.39 4.9 9.9 0.0% 0.33
Kalif Raymond $5,500 7.4 1.34 3.5 11.2 1.8% 0.47
Jamison Crowder $5,800 7.1 1.23 3.8 10.1 0.2% 0.25
Donovan Peoples-Jones $5,600 6.9 1.23 3.6 10.0 0.4% 0.29
Jamal Agnew $5,300 6.9 1.30 4.2 9.2 0.0% 0.25
Quez Watkins $5,300 6.7 1.27 4.1 9.4 0.0% 0.25
James Washington $5,100 6.6 1.29 3.0 9.9 0.2% 0.39
Nelson Agholor $5,300 6.6 1.24 2.7 11.0 1.0% 0.48
Amon-Ra St. Brown $5,400 6.4 1.19 3.0 9.8 0.1% 0.30
Kendrick Bourne $5,500 6.4 1.17 3.1 9.4 0.2% 0.22
Marquez Callaway $5,600 6.4 1.14 2.7 10.0 0.3% 0.29
Deonte Harris $5,400 6.4 1.18 3.9 8.8 0.0% 0.16
Elijah Moore $5,700 6.1 1.06 2.4 9.6 0.4% 0.22
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,300 5.8 1.10 1.8 10.4 1.9% 0.38
K.J. Osborn $5,300 5.8 1.09 3.1 8.8 0.3% 0.23
Olamide Zaccheaus $5,500 5.6 1.03 2.3 8.8 0.1% 0.17
Robby Anderson $5,200 5.5 1.06 1.9 9.1 0.6% 0.28
Tajae Sharpe $5,200 5.4 1.05 2.7 8.4 0.0% 0.18
Tre'Quan Smith $5,500 5.3 0.95 2.4 8.0 0.0% 0.13
Tyler Johnson $5,100 5.1 1.01 2.7 7.5 0.0% 0.11
Randall Cobb $5,500 5.1 0.92 2.4 7.7 0.0% 0.11
Allen Lazard $5,500 5.1 0.92 2.3 7.8 0.0% 0.10

Tight End

Player FanDuel
Salary
Median
FDP
Value 25th
Pct
75th
Pct
15+
FDP%
Boom/
Bust
Ratio
Kyle Pitts $6,900 12.6 1.82 7.4 17.8 36.9% 1.11
Dallas Goedert $5,900 10.6 1.80 6.0 14.6 23.0% 1.04
T.J. Hockenson $6,500 9.5 1.47 5.3 13.5 18.0% 0.53
Dalton Schultz $6,000 9.4 1.56 5.9 12.7 14.7% 0.60
Dawson Knox $5,800 8.3 1.42 4.6 11.6 8.9% 0.48
Dan Arnold $5,100 8.0 1.56 3.8 12.2 13.4% 0.74
Pat Freiermuth $5,100 7.9 1.56 4.3 11.3 8.0% 0.73
Jared Cook $5,200 7.9 1.51 3.9 11.3 9.6% 0.61
Noah Fant $5,700 7.6 1.33 3.7 11.1 7.8% 0.41
Zach Ertz $5,200 6.8 1.31 2.9 10.4 6.4% 0.43
O.J. Howard $4,600 6.8 1.47 3.8 10.0 5.1% 0.59
Ricky Seals-Jones $5,300 6.6 1.24 3.8 9.3 2.9% 0.27
Hunter Henry $5,400 6.5 1.21 3.2 9.9 4.6% 0.31
Tyler Conklin $5,300 6.5 1.22 3.5 10.1 3.6% 0.35
Hayden Hurst $4,800 5.8 1.21 2.2 8.9 2.8% 0.34
Cameron Brate $4,500 5.3 1.18 2.2 8.6 3.1% 0.35
Jonnu Smith $4,500 5.2 1.16 2.1 8.5 0.9% 0.36
David Njoku $4,900 5.0 1.01 1.7 8.2 2.4% 0.22
Adam Trautman $4,700 4.9 1.05 1.9 7.9 1.4% 0.23
Austin Hooper $4,800 4.9 1.02 1.4 8.4 2.3% 0.27
Mo Alie-Cox $4,800 4.2 0.88 1.2 7.3 0.9% 0.16
Gerald Everett $4,700 4.1 0.87 1.3 7.1 0.6% 0.14
Geoff Swaim $4,500 3.9 0.88 0.8 6.9 0.1% 0.15
Jack Doyle $4,600 3.9 0.85 0.9 6.8 0.6% 0.13
Albert Okwuegbunam $5,000 3.4 0.67 0.3 6.4 0.2% 0.07
Tommy Tremble $4,500 3.0 0.66 0.0 6.4 0.5% 0.14

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