Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 9
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 25+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $9,000 | 26.1 | 2.90 | 19.5 | 32.6 | 54.8% | 2.82 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,300 | 26.0 | 3.13 | 19.9 | 32.3 | 54.7% | 4.83 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,500 | 22.6 | 2.66 | 17.2 | 27.6 | 37.2% | 1.89 |
| Jalen Hurts | $7,800 | 22.0 | 2.81 | 16.6 | 27.5 | 36.6% | 2.43 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,900 | 20.7 | 2.62 | 15.0 | 25.7 | 28.3% | 1.61 |
| Justin Herbert | $7,600 | 20.2 | 2.66 | 15.5 | 25.1 | 25.5% | 2.03 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $7,300 | 20.1 | 2.75 | 14.4 | 25.1 | 25.8% | 1.93 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,600 | 19.0 | 2.50 | 14.0 | 23.7 | 20.7% | 1.29 |
| Derek Carr | $7,500 | 18.3 | 2.44 | 13.5 | 23.3 | 18.8% | 1.10 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,300 | 18.3 | 2.50 | 13.3 | 23.6 | 18.9% | 1.31 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,400 | 17.2 | 2.33 | 12.9 | 22.3 | 15.3% | 0.92 |
| Tyrod Taylor | $6,900 | 16.8 | 2.43 | 11.6 | 21.9 | 14.5% | 1.11 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,100 | 16.7 | 2.35 | 11.2 | 21.5 | 13.2% | 0.91 |
| Jordan Love | $6,000 | 15.6 | 2.61 | 10.7 | 20.5 | 10.2% | 1.40 |
| Mac Jones | $6,500 | 15.4 | 2.37 | 10.9 | 20.5 | 9.9% | 1.02 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,600 | 15.3 | 2.32 | 10.4 | 19.9 | 7.6% | 0.86 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,400 | 14.7 | 2.30 | 9.9 | 19.6 | 8.0% | 0.86 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,700 | 14.0 | 2.10 | 9.5 | 18.9 | 7.4% | 0.60 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,200 | 13.6 | 1.88 | 8.6 | 18.7 | 4.5% | 0.37 |
| Trevor Siemian | $7,000 | 13.0 | 1.86 | 8.3 | 18.0 | 5.2% | 0.34 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,000 | 11.7 | 1.66 | 7.1 | 15.4 | 1.2% | 0.16 |
| Colt McCoy | $6,000 | 11.1 | 1.85 | 6.5 | 15.5 | 1.9% | 0.36 |
| P.J. Walker | $6,300 | 10.0 | 1.59 | 5.3 | 14.7 | 1.9% | 0.26 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,200 | 9.4 | 1.15 | 5.0 | 14.0 | 1.1% | 0.04 |
Running Back
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 20+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | $9,400 | 18.4 | 1.96 | 12.2 | 24.1 | 43.1% | 1.54 |
| Austin Ekeler | $9,000 | 17.2 | 1.91 | 11.4 | 22.7 | 36.5% | 1.30 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,200 | 17.0 | 2.07 | 11.0 | 22.5 | 34.7% | 1.77 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,800 | 16.6 | 1.89 | 11.3 | 22.3 | 33.2% | 1.32 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,600 | 14.8 | 1.95 | 9.7 | 20.1 | 25.8% | 1.43 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,400 | 14.6 | 1.98 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 24.2% | 1.54 |
| Aaron Jones | $8,500 | 14.1 | 1.65 | 8.6 | 20.0 | 25.3% | 0.86 |
| Myles Gaskin | $6,100 | 13.9 | 2.28 | 8.3 | 19.2 | 22.3% | 2.04 |
| Devontae Booker | $6,300 | 13.3 | 2.12 | 8.9 | 18.7 | 20.5% | 1.93 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,200 | 13.0 | 1.80 | 7.7 | 18.1 | 16.8% | 1.07 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,000 | 12.8 | 1.84 | 7.3 | 18.3 | 19.4% | 1.14 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,000 | 12.7 | 1.27 | 7.0 | 18.1 | 18.6% | 0.31 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,900 | 11.9 | 2.02 | 6.9 | 16.7 | 14.2% | 1.42 |
| Damien Harris | $6,600 | 11.4 | 1.73 | 7.0 | 15.9 | 11.4% | 0.98 |
| Darrel Williams | $6,700 | 11.0 | 1.63 | 6.5 | 15.3 | 7.7% | 0.78 |
| Zack Moss | $6,000 | 10.6 | 1.76 | 5.6 | 15.5 | 9.5% | 1.03 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,400 | 9.4 | 1.47 | 5.6 | 13.8 | 5.6% | 0.60 |
| Javonte Williams | $5,800 | 9.0 | 1.56 | 4.2 | 13.9 | 5.4% | 0.77 |
| James Conner | $6,100 | 8.9 | 1.46 | 4.3 | 13.4 | 4.5% | 0.59 |
| Boston Scott | $6,300 | 8.9 | 1.41 | 4.3 | 13.2 | 3.5% | 0.51 |
| Mike Davis | $5,600 | 8.6 | 1.54 | 4.5 | 13.1 | 3.5% | 0.73 |
| Tony Pollard | $5,800 | 8.6 | 1.48 | 4.3 | 13.0 | 5.2% | 0.63 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,300 | 8.3 | 1.57 | 3.5 | 12.5 | 3.2% | 0.75 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $6,800 | 8.0 | 1.18 | 3.4 | 12.9 | 3.1% | 0.34 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,600 | 8.0 | 1.42 | 3.8 | 12.0 | 3.5% | 0.52 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $7,100 | 7.3 | 1.03 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 1.4% | 0.19 |
| Devonta Freeman | $5,500 | 7.0 | 1.27 | 2.8 | 11.0 | 1.7% | 0.43 |
| Salvon Ahmed | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.34 | 2.6 | 11.1 | 2.1% | 0.54 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,200 | 6.9 | 1.11 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 1.8% | 0.32 |
| A.J. Dillon | $5,200 | 6.7 | 1.29 | 2.5 | 10.4 | 1.3% | 0.44 |
| James Robinson | $7,500 | 6.5 | 0.87 | 2.7 | 10.5 | 1.5% | 0.11 |
| David Johnson | $5,300 | 6.4 | 1.22 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 0.8% | 0.40 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | $5,500 | 5.9 | 1.07 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 1.1% | 0.26 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $5,200 | 5.8 | 1.11 | 1.9 | 9.9 | 0.7% | 0.37 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $5,000 | 5.7 | 1.13 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 0.4% | 0.34 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,200 | 5.6 | 1.07 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 0.6% | 0.33 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom /Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $8,500 | 16.8 | 1.97 | 11.7 | 22.2 | 34.3% | 1.61 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,600 | 15.2 | 2.00 | 10.3 | 19.7 | 24.0% | 1.60 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $7,900 | 15.0 | 1.90 | 9.6 | 20.3 | 26.1% | 1.37 |
| Davante Adams | $9,000 | 14.4 | 1.60 | 10.1 | 19.3 | 21.9% | 0.71 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,500 | 13.6 | 1.82 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 13.8% | 1.20 |
| Mike Williams | $7,300 | 13.2 | 1.81 | 7.8 | 17.9 | 18.1% | 1.10 |
| Justin Jefferson | $7,600 | 13.1 | 1.72 | 7.9 | 17.8 | 16.9% | 0.92 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,900 | 12.9 | 1.87 | 8.9 | 17.0 | 11.2% | 1.24 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,000 | 12.8 | 1.82 | 8.8 | 17.1 | 11.3% | 1.17 |
| Marquise Brown | $7,700 | 12.7 | 1.65 | 7.6 | 17.2 | 14.7% | 0.79 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,800 | 12.6 | 1.85 | 7.2 | 17.7 | 15.3% | 1.12 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,100 | 12.4 | 2.03 | 8.6 | 16.1 | 9.1% | 1.85 |
| Deebo Samuel | $8,000 | 12.4 | 1.55 | 9.2 | 15.6 | 4.9% | 0.46 |
| D.J. Moore | $7,100 | 12.3 | 1.74 | 6.7 | 17.0 | 15.6% | 0.92 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,600 | 12.1 | 1.83 | 7.2 | 16.9 | 12.4% | 1.14 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,400 | 11.5 | 1.55 | 7.7 | 16.2 | 10.9% | 0.68 |
| Kadarius Toney | $5,700 | 11.1 | 1.95 | 7.3 | 14.6 | 5.0% | 1.54 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,700 | 11.0 | 1.64 | 5.2 | 16.6 | 14.8% | 0.88 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,500 | 10.9 | 1.68 | 6.7 | 14.7 | 6.4% | 0.87 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,900 | 10.8 | 1.84 | 7.0 | 14.7 | 5.3% | 1.19 |
| DeVonta Smith | $5,800 | 10.3 | 1.77 | 5.7 | 14.8 | 7.1% | 1.11 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,400 | 10.2 | 1.60 | 5.7 | 14.6 | 7.0% | 0.75 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,500 | 10.2 | 1.85 | 5.9 | 14.3 | 4.7% | 1.14 |
| Cole Beasley | $6,300 | 10.1 | 1.60 | 6.6 | 13.4 | 1.7% | 0.68 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,600 | 10.1 | 1.80 | 6.7 | 13.3 | 2.3% | 1.13 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $5,800 | 9.6 | 1.65 | 4.7 | 14.5 | 7.8% | 0.85 |
| Marvin Jones | $6,000 | 9.3 | 1.56 | 4.6 | 13.6 | 5.9% | 0.70 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,000 | 9.3 | 1.55 | 4.5 | 13.7 | 5.7% | 0.73 |
| Bryan Edwards | $5,300 | 9.1 | 1.72 | 6.5 | 11.6 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,300 | 8.8 | 1.65 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 0.4% | 0.78 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | 8.0 | 1.36 | 4.8 | 11.4 | 0.9% | 0.40 |
| Rashod Bateman | $5,400 | 8.0 | 1.48 | 4.4 | 11.4 | 1.4% | 0.58 |
| Tim Patrick | $5,600 | 7.3 | 1.31 | 3.9 | 11.0 | 1.0% | 0.41 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.30 | 4.3 | 10.7 | 0.2% | 0.39 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,400 | 7.1 | 1.31 | 3.9 | 10.4 | 1.0% | 0.38 |
| Mecole Hardman | $5,400 | 7.0 | 1.29 | 4.0 | 9.9 | 0.1% | 0.34 |
| Jamal Agnew | $5,200 | 6.5 | 1.25 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.23 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,400 | 6.4 | 1.19 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 0.1% | 0.20 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.17 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 0.6% | 0.29 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.16 | 2.7 | 10.3 | 0.8% | 0.35 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,400 | 6.3 | 1.16 | 2.3 | 10.6 | 2.0% | 0.39 |
| Russell Gage | $5,800 | 6.3 | 1.08 | 3.1 | 9.5 | 0.4% | 0.18 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,200 | 6.2 | 0.86 | 3.4 | 9.5 | 0.1% | 0.07 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | $5,700 | 6.1 | 1.07 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 0.1% | 0.18 |
| Jalen Reagor | $5,200 | 6.1 | 1.17 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 0.8% | 0.36 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,100 | 6.1 | 1.19 | 2.9 | 9.3 | 0.2% | 0.29 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,500 | 6.0 | 1.09 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 0.1% | 0.21 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,800 | 5.9 | 1.02 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 0.4% | 0.24 |
| Preston Williams | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 0.3% | 0.28 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $5,600 | 5.7 | 1.01 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 0.1% | 0.17 |
| Nico Collins | $5,400 | 5.6 | 1.05 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 0.1% | 0.20 |
| Gabriel Davis | $5,000 | 5.5 | 1.10 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.25 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,300 | 5.5 | 1.03 | 1.7 | 9.5 | 1.3% | 0.30 |
| Deonte Harris | $5,200 | 5.2 | 1.00 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 0.0% | 0.08 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $5,500 | 5.2 | 0.94 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.05 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.18 |
| Rashard Higgins | $5,000 | 5.0 | 1.01 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 0.26 |
Tight End
| Player | FanDuel Salary | Median FDP | Value | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | 15+ FDP% | Boom/ Bust Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,800 | 13.4 | 1.97 | 8.6 | 17.8 | 40.6% | 1.47 |
| Travis Kelce | $7,800 | 13.0 | 1.66 | 8.4 | 17.7 | 37.1% | 0.83 |
| Mark Andrews | $7,100 | 11.9 | 1.68 | 6.9 | 16.7 | 33.4% | 0.88 |
| Mike Gesicki | $6,500 | 10.4 | 1.60 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 23.7% | 0.79 |
| Kyle Pitts | $6,600 | 10.4 | 1.57 | 5.4 | 15.3 | 26.5% | 0.76 |
| Dallas Goedert | $6,200 | 9.9 | 1.60 | 6.1 | 13.7 | 20.1% | 0.71 |
| Dalton Schultz | $6,100 | 8.6 | 1.41 | 5.2 | 12.4 | 11.5% | 0.49 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $4,500 | 7.8 | 1.74 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 7.8% | 0.96 |
| George Kittle | $6,000 | 7.7 | 1.28 | 4.0 | 10.8 | 6.5% | 0.29 |
| Jared Cook | $5,200 | 7.5 | 1.45 | 3.3 | 11.2 | 9.3% | 0.57 |
| Dan Arnold | $5,100 | 7.0 | 1.36 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 7.6% | 0.53 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,500 | 6.7 | 1.22 | 2.7 | 10.0 | 6.6% | 0.33 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,300 | 6.3 | 1.19 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 5.6% | 0.37 |
| Evan Engram | $5,100 | 6.2 | 1.22 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 5.1% | 0.36 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,200 | 5.7 | 1.10 | 3.0 | 9.2 | 3.5% | 0.28 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,900 | 5.6 | 1.15 | 2.3 | 8.7 | 2.6% | 0.30 |
| Tommy Sweeney | $4,700 | 5.4 | 1.14 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 1.7% | 0.31 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $5,400 | 4.8 | 0.89 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 1.1% | 0.11 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,700 | 4.6 | 0.98 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 0.4% | 0.22 |
| David Njoku | $4,800 | 4.5 | 0.93 | 1.3 | 7.8 | 1.9% | 0.20 |
