NFL Betting Guide: Week 9
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
Over 46.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Las Vegas Raiders certainly look like a different team today than they did at the start of the season. Despite all of the chaos that has surrounded them and the changes they've gone through, they come into this week's matchup against the New York Giants at 5-2, good enough to lead the tight AFC West.
Though their heads may be spinning, the Raiders' bodies should be rested coming off of their Week 8 bye. The over is on a 7-3 run the past 10 times an away team has come off their bye week and playing in a game with a total higher than 46 points.
The over has hit the last three times that a team with two or fewer losses has been favored in Week 9 coming off a bye. The over has gone 7-3 the past 10 times with home teams as underdogs in games with totals of greater than 46 points are coming off a loss of three points or fewer -- say that 10 times fast!
numberFire projects the Raiders and Giants to combine for 49.4 points this week. We give the over a 58.4% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 11.4%, we mark the over as a two-star play.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -9.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Cowboys Moneyline (-460): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott says it's "safe to say" that he'll be playing in Week 9 against the Denver Broncos. The betting markets are taking him at his word; the Cowboys opened as 7.5-point home favorites, a line that has since moved to -9.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
America's Team was an underdog at the Minnesota Vikings last week but walked away with a win with Cooper Rush under center. Home teams favored by at least nine points after previously being an underdog have gone 17-2 straight up (SU) and 11-8 against the spread (ATS) since the start of the 2019 season. The ATS record is 6-2-1 in the last nine such contests.
Since the 2011 season, the Broncos have been more than 9.0-point away underdogs just six times. They've lost all six of those games, though three of the past four have been decided by seven points or fewer.
Our model projects the Dak-led Cowboys to win by 13.9 points this week. We give them a whopping 87.3% chance of winning and a 63.7% chance of covering. We currently mark both bets as three-star plays.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Saints -6.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Saints Moneyline (-270): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The New Orleans Saints will be without Jameis Winston for the rest of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8. Though he left during the second quarter, the Saints' defense was still able to propel the team to a thrilling 36-27 victory over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Trevor Siemian will reportedly remain under center this week, but our model shows that the Saints' defense will be more than up to the task to help the team walk away with a win.
The Saints come into this week as the third-best defense in the league, according to our rankings. The team is holding opponents to just 79.4 yards on the ground, and their 13 takeaways are tied for seventh in the league.
New Orleans has gone 6-1 in their last seven home games favored by at least six points, and they've gone 4-1 ATS in their past five such contests. Home teams with fewer than three losses that have been favored by at least six points in Week 9 have won 13 of their past 14 games. They've gone 8-4-2 ATS in those contests.
We project the Saints to win by 10.9 points this week. We give them an 82.0% chance of winning and a 63.8% chance of covering the spread. We mark the two bets as four- and three-star plays, respectively.
