NFL

4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 9

Josh Shepardson  —  @BChad50 Nov 5th, 2021

Stacks fuel upside in FanDuel contests. To that point, colleague Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into hit rates and correlation for stacks. It's worth a read.

Every week, I'll lay out my four favorite stacks in this space. Here are the stacks I'm honing in on this week.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen ($9,000), Stefon Diggs ($7,600), and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,500)

According to our heat map, the Buffalo Bills have the highest implied total (31.50 points) on FanDuel's main slate. So, obviously, that's a fantastic starting point for honing in on a stack. Further, Buffalo's pass-heavy offense meshes with the Jacksonville Jaguars' leaky pass defense.

According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Bills pass at the third-highest rate (65 percent). In addition, when leading by eight points or more, Buffalo's passing at a 48 percent clip, three ticks above the league average of 45 percent under that scoring margin. As for the Jaguars, they rank as the second-worst pass defense in our power rankings.

Allen has to be licking his chops in anticipation of building on his impressive statistics this season. According to Pro Football Reference, Allen is eighth in passing yards per game (281.7) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (17), despite the Bills having a Week 7 bye. Also, Allen adds value with his legs, rushing for 38.4 yards per game and 3 touchdowns in 2021. Our projections peg Allen as the QB1 and the highest value score -- a measure of points per one-thousand dollars of salary -- at the position. It simply doesn't get better than that.

Diggs is my favorite stacking option with Allen. He leads the Bills in receiving yards per game (71.9) and targets (65). Further, according to Sports Info Solutions, he ranks 12th in target share (24.9 percent) and 10th in intended air yards (811). Diggs is also second on the Bills in receptions per game (6.0).

Further, the team leader for receptions per game, Cole Beasley, was listed as a non-participant in Thursday's practice. Still, not all non-participation classifications are equal, and Beasley can be seen doing a little work in the following tweet.


If Beasley is out, suffice to say it increases the share of the pass-catching pie for the other receivers. Sanders is another receiver I'm locked in on to make this a load three-person stack. Sanders is a vertical weapon for the Bills, sporting the 17th most intended air yards (755) and the highest average depth of target (17.6 yards) among players with a minimum of 20 targets and play on this week's main slate.

Sanders' field-stretching usage is perfect for exploiting Jacksonville's pass defense. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Jaguars have coughed up the highest average explosive pass rate (14 percent). This stack featuring Allen, Diggs, and Sanders is my favorite in Week 9.

Miami Dolphins

(UPDATE: Parker reportedly suffered a setback in practice and is now doubtful to play. In 2 games with Tagovailoa and without Parker, Waddle led with 24.4% of the targets while Mike Gesicki had 19.8%.)

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,300) and DeVante Parker ($6,200)

First, allow me to link you to my 5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 9 piece that was published on Thursday. Both Tagovailoa and Parker were featured prominently among those five players. As I noted in the linked article, Tua's played since returning in Week 6 and peppers Parker with targets when the two have played together this year. The matchup is excellent as well. I won't belabor all of the points I discussed in detail in that space. So, you should check out the link for a more in-depth analysis.

Instead, I'll turn my focus to Tyrod Taylor. ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that the dual-threat quarterback is expected to start this week.


The Houston Texans showed spunk and competence in the first six quarters of the year with Taylor at the helm of the offense. Thus, I expect Taylor's return to aid the cause for the Miami Dolphins airing it out from start to finish instead of milking the clock with a big lead late. As a result, I like Tagovailoa and Parker as a high-upside stack in GPPs with the bonus of offering salary-cap relief with their modest salaries.

San Francisco 49ers

Elijah Mitchell ($7,100) and San Francisco D/ST ($3,500)

I don't believe I've included a running back and defense stack in this piece this year. However, Mitchell's a game-script-dependent back. Further, the Arizona Cardinals have numerous critical injuries and availability questions. So, I'm bucking my season-long trend, suggesting using Mitchell and the 49ers' defense together this week.

Let's start with why I'm enamored with San Francisco's defense. Kyler Murray is nursing an ankle injury and hasn't practiced this week. The talented dual-threat quarterback reportedly doesn't need to practice this week in order to face the 49ers. Regardless, his playing status appears to legitimately be in question, and Colt McCoy starting would be a boon for San Francisco's defense. Further, if Murray plays, his ankle injury could hinder his performance and ability to shake pass-rushers.

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the injuries don't end there. DeAndre Hopkins hasn't practiced this week while tending to a hamstring ailment that limited him in last week's game. Finally, A.J. Green is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. As a result, Arizona's offense might be significantly shorthanded, and San Francisco's defense already sports the second-highest value score in our projections. They might bypass the Kansas City D/ST for top value honors if Murray is ruled out.

All of the injury uncertainty has helped push the 49ers from slight underdogs to 1.0-point favorites. A neutral or positive game script would position Mitchell to steamroll the Cardinals. According to Pro Football Reference, the Cardinals have coughed up 4.71 yards per rush attempt to running backs this year. Further, they've yielded the highest average explosive run rate (16 percent).

Mitchell is equipped to shred the Cards. According to Player Profiler, he has a 97th-percentile 40-yard dash speed, 88th-percentile burst score, 86th-percentile speed score, and 74th-percentile Sparq-X score. Moreover, the speedy rookie has put his tantalizing wheels to use on the gridiron. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, Mitchell ranks first with 4.32 yards after contact per attempt. He's also tied for the sixth-most runs of 10-plus yards (15) despite playing in only five games.

Unfortunately, Mitchell is a non-factor in the passing game. He has zero targets in three of five games. Thus, if the game goes sideways for the 49ers, Mitchell might find himself watching JaMycal Hasty relieve him in catch-up mode. I'm bullish on San Francisco's outlook keeping this game close and possibly winning as small favorites, so the game-script risk with Mitchell doesn't concern me this week. Instead, I'm focused on his upside on the heels of rushing for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns in the previous two games.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens

Dalvin Cook ($8,800) and Mark Andrews ($7,100)

The game-script concerns I voiced for Mitchell don't exist for Cook. The top running back on the Minnesota Vikings is a workhorse. According to our snap counts, Cook's 65.63 percent snap share is the seventh-highest mark among all running backs.

The dynamic back is averaging 103.4 yards from scrimmage per game, hauling in 2.4 receptions per game to add value through the air as well. Unfortunately, the matchup doesn't appear good at first blush. The Baltimore Ravens rank fourth-best defending the run in our power rankings. However, they have a problem with allowing explosive runs, allowing the second-highest average explosive run rate (14 percent).

Like Mitchell against the Cardinals, Cook is equipped to exploit Baltimore's giving nature for explosive runs. Cook has ripped off the second-most runs of 10-plus yards (18), and he's played in only five games. I'm enamored with Cook this week, and our projections support my infatuation. We project him to finish as the RB2 and record the fifth-highest value score at the position.

My favorite run-back option in a game-stack with Cook is Andrews. According to Stat Head, among tight ends in 2021, Andrews ranks tied for seventh in touchdown receptions (three), sixth in targets (51), tied for fourth in receptions (37), and first in receiving yards per game (73.7). Further, Andrews ranks second in yards per route run (2.29 Y/RR) among tight ends targeted at least 20 times, according to Pro Football Focus. So, Andrews checks all the boxes as an elite tight end.

He's benefited immensely from the Ravens passing more in 2021. When the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points this year, Baltimore passes at a 53 percent clip, which is eight percent more than in 2020. Andrews is a great piece of exposure to Baltimore's gaudy 27.75-point implied total that's tied for the third-highest mark on the main slate. We project him to finish as TE3 with a matching value score.

Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.