Daily Fantasy Football: Sannes' Situations to Monitor in Week 8

It's about time we all gave running backs a hug.

Teams have been reluctant to dole out big contracts at the position for a while now. They don't often go early in the draft. There's brutal wear and tear on their bodies.

And now, they can't even crack the flex spot in a perfect FanDuel lineup. I'm positive they care just as deeply about this as the other stuff.

From 2018 to 2019, a running back was used in the flex of the main slate's perfect lineup 21 of 34 times (61.7%). Last year, that fell to 8 of 17.

I had chalked that up to all the injuries at the position, which narratively felt correct.

But through seven weeks, the only times three running backs have made a perfect lineup are the two times Cordarrelle Patterson made it, and that was with dual-position eligibility. So even if you count Patterson, we've still flexed a running back in the perfect lineup just 28.6% of the time in 2021.

For someone who almost always puts a running back in this slot, it's jarring data that can put you into an existential tailspin. Do I need to alter my process? Was I ever right to begin with? Will my future kids love me if I flex a non-running back? Will I be able to afford to have kids if I don't?

Luckily, Week 8 is here to pat me on the head and tell me everything will be all right. Even with no Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Aaron Jones on the main slate, we've got a healthy serving of viable running backs scattered across various salary tiers who can move the needle in DFS.

It doesn't guarantee we'll see a running back in the perfect lineup's flex spot. But we do have options at the position, and it's a comforting feeling.

Let's start there, running through how we should view running back this week before we dive into other situations impacting the main slate.

The Running Back Landscape

The two things we want to weigh most heavily when deciding which backs to prioritize are workload and scoring environment. Let's start with that first point and then dive into the rest.

Because we do have viable options in each tier, we're going to split this discussion into the studs, mid-range, and value plays. The stud tier will be those with a salary of $8,000 or higher, a group of seven backs.

The table below shows the setup for each guy. "Adjusted Opportunities" is carries plus two-times the player's target total as targets are worth twice as much as a carry on FanDuel. "RZ Share" is the percentage of team opportunities the player has gotten inside the red zone. For each of these players, the data listed is for their fully healthy games.

Even with other options on the slate, the king stay the king. Derrick Henry stands out, as does the guy on the other side of that game, Jonathan Taylor.

Henry leads this group in adjusted opportunities per game and yards per game, boasting a 33-yard gap over the field in the latter category. His red-zone share ranks third in the group but is still a hefty number. Given the workload cavern between Henry and the field -- and the fact that this game has the highest total and the tightest spread on the slate -- Henry is a priority again.

Taylor may actually be second on the list in this group. He ranks second behind Henry in yards per game and second behind Najee Harris in red-zone share. The line has also shifted toward the Indianapolis Colts, who opened as one-point underdogs but are now 2.5-point favorites. Taylor's explosiveness and fair salary mean he's the number two option here.

The third slot likely comes down to Harris and Alvin Kamara. Harris' drawback is a low-scoring game while Kamara's is the matchup. Given that Kamara will likely get a boatload of work in the passing game, I'm inclined to favor him and go with the more attractive game, but you're fully justified if you want to put Harris on top here.

The other three -- Austin Ekeler, James Robinson, and Nick Chubb -- all have some sort of concern, whether it be usage, offense, or matchup. I'd be fine putting those three in a tier below the other options. Doing so becomes easier when you see the mid-range options just beneath them. It's worth noting that Ekeler also missed practice Thursday due to a hip issue, further limiting his appeal. It'd also likely be a committee if he were to miss, making it tough to invest in the Los Angeles Chargers' backfield no matter how things break.

Those aforementioned mid-range plays -- for our purposes -- will be the six backs in the $7,000 range. We'll lop off Alex Collins, whose role was underwhelming with Rashaad Penny back last week, making it a five-player tier.

Here's the breakdown for those remaining five. The split for Cordarrelle Patterson is the two games since his snap rate increased while Leonard Fournette's is the three games since Giovani Bernard returned. Joe Mixon's sample omits his Week 6 where he was limited by injury.

To me, at least, the big standouts in this tier are Patterson and D'Andre Swift.

Both guys check the main boxes you want at running back: passing-game work, goal-line work, plus matchup, and a competitive game. Those are the keys to a ceiling. It has resulted in 3 games with 20-plus FanDuel points for Swift and 2 for Patterson compared to 1 each for Fournette and Darrell Henderson.

If deciding between the two, I'd favor Swift as his role is far less volatile. Patterson, though, is a firm second among players in this tier, and he's a fine consolation if you need to save the $600 in salary between him and Swift.

As for Henderson and Mixon, the lack of passing-game work is one drawback. The other is that it's tough to see them getting more targets this week with the spread so heavily in their favor. As we discussed last week, only 4.8% of all running backs in perfect lineups last year were on teams favored by 10-plus points; meanwhile, 13.4% of all popular running backs fell into that bucket. That likely guarantees Henderson and Mixon are popular without giving a boost to their outlook.

That doesn't mean they're bad plays, by any means. They're still fully in the consideration set. But for me, I'd rather take the targets in tight scripts and run with Swift and Patterson over them.

The role is of no concern for Fournette; his matchup just stinks. The New Orleans Saints rank third against the rush, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and they've yet to allow a single back to top 75 yards rushing against them. Things fall off drastically after Fournette, so he's not off the map, but the matchup does allow us to prioritize the others above him.

As for the values, we don't have a relevant sample yet for Kenneth Gainwell as he steps up to fill Miles Sanders' shoes. We'll talk about what to expect from him in a second. But first, let's compare the resumes of some other guys below $7,000 in Damien Harris, Chuba Hubbard, Khalil Herbert, Zack Moss, and Eli Mitchell.

Here's the workload breakdown on those guys in their most relevant samples. For Hubbard, that's the full games without McCaffrey. Herbert's sample is the two games since he took over as the featured back. Zack Moss is his past four games since he became the Buffalo Bills' 1A option.

The data potentially overinflates Herbert's role. It just depends on what you think of Damien Williams' situation last week.

If you think Williams played limited snaps because he missed practice all week, you'll want to be wary of Herbert. Williams has been a full-go this week, which could lower Herbert's usage here.

If you think Herbert has earned the featured-back role until David Montgomery's return, then Herbert looks like a value. He had a tremendous workload and has looked explosive within it, which is why he's worth discussing.

The complicating factor is that the Chicago Bears' offense sucks, which lowers touchdown expectations for everyone. That's the other path to failure for Herbert outside of a re-expansion for Williams' role. Those factors prevent Herbert from being a core play, but he's worth exposure in case he maintains that role.

The data on Harris may be surprising given that he has blown up in consecutive weeks, but he's not the typical archetype we target, even on a half-PPR site. He has topped 20 adjusted opportunities in a game once this year, and that came back in Week 1. It's a great ground matchup for the New England Patriots, but a lack of involvement in the passing game puts a big dent in his profile.

In Mitchell, you get a role that's very similar to Harris' but at a $1,100 discount on an offense that's actually favored to win. Mitchell has topped 100 yards from scrimmage twice in 4 games, and although he didn't get any targets last week, he did run a route on 14 of 30 drop backs. Between the two, I'd give a heavy advantage to Mitchell thanks to the salary discount and spread. He's my favorite option below $7,000.

With that said, I do think that Moss is at least worth a look. The Bills are 14-point favorites, and although I think that's higher than it should be; it means bookmakers expect the Bills to score points. In 4 games since he started out-snapping Devin Singletary, Moss has played 75% of the team's snaps inside the red zone, according to Next-Gen Stats, including 8 of 10 plays on the goal line. Moss has four targets in consecutive games and has topped 90 yards twice. I'd rank him below Mitchell, but among the value plays, he's in contention with Herbert for the second slot.

As for Gainwell, it's hard to compare him to the others here without knowing his role. We do know, though, that there are concerns around goal-line work with Jordan Howard likely to be called up from the practice squad. That's enough to push him behind Mitchell and Moss, who are bigger locks to get those high-leverage looks. You can consider Gainwell, but before doing so, ask yourself whether his role will grade out better than the guys on that table above.

Trimming the Bucs' Target Tree

As DFS players, we should love the Bucs. They're pass-heavy and efficient, and they're willing to throw even when they're up big.

The lone downside of them has been that there are too many mouths to feed. But with Antonio Brown trending toward another absence this week, that's no longer a concern.

The Bucs will likely get Rob Gronkowski back for his first game since Week 3, but we already have seen this team with Gronk and without Brown. That was back in Week 3 against the Rams. In that one, all three of Gronk, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin got volume. Here, a "deep" target is one at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

You could say things were inflated due to the negative script they faced, but we also saw Giovani Bernard and Tyler Johnson combine for 16 targets. We should expect good volume for this trio.

The complicating factor is that Godwin saw some Jalen Ramsey in Week 3 while Evans figures to see lots of Marshon Lattimore here. As laid out in detail here by ESPN's Mike Clay, Lattimore has clamped down on Evans historically, even since Brady joined the fold. That means we should expect some of the volume above to trickle over to Godwin instead.

This is not a situation where you avoid Evans entirely. The public may avoid Evans due to the matchup, and Evans is a hyper-talented receiver with a quarterback playing at an absurd level. But when you're building your Tom Brady stacks (with Brady grading out as one of the better quarterbacking options), it's justifiable to favor Godwin and make him the preferred option between the two.

The lone downside in stacking Brady this week is that it's tough to find a viable bring-back. We already discussed the complicating factors with Kamara. He's the top option despite that because... well, who else are you gonna trust?

Marquez Callaway has been the top non-Kamara pass-catcher, but even he has just 19.3% of the targets. We should project more pass attempts for the Saints due to the matchup, but a 19.3% target share is underwhelming at $5,900 no matter the pass rate.

You can use Callaway at times, and Kamara is fine. But if you're multi-entering with Brady stacks, it's more than acceptable to have some with no player on the opposing side, safe-guarding yourself in case the Saints continue to spread the ball out.

Mossel Pittman

In the stud running-back section, we gushed over both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. They're not the lone quality access to this game. In fact, you've got about 53 different routes to it. But the most under-salaried one appears to be Michael Pittman.

The past couple weeks, Pittman has gotten by on absolutely Mossing dudes downfield, which is unsustainable. But his full-season target share is still 23.5%, and he has 37.8% of the team's deep targets with 23.1% in the red zone. You'll take that at $6,600 all day.

Pittman's the low-salaried guy here, but everyone involved is viable, including the two quarterbacks. This is a repeat divisional matchup, which can sometimes lead to disappointing outputs, but the rematch is a different ballgame. Back in Week 3, Carson Wentz had two sprained ankles, and the Tennessee Titans played the second half without both Julio Jones and AJ Brown. Now, everybody's healthy, and the game moves indoors. It's justifiably the highest total on the slate.

Between the two quarterbacks, Ryan Tannehill is the preferred option. The Titans have a 53% pass rate in the red zone, according to Sharp Football Stats, while the Colts are at just 38%. That gives Tannehill the better touchdown upside at a position where touchdowns are paramount. Wentz works, but Tannehill holds a slight edge.

You can certainly stack Tannehill with Henry, but we're getting a better picture of what the target distribution will look like with Brown and Jones both healthy. Here's that breakdown in the three full games they've played together. (UPDATE: Jones has since been ruled out. Brown led with 6 of 21 targets without Jones in Week 5. Marcus Johnson ran the second-most routes and had the second-most targets but ran just 11 routes to Josh Reynolds' 17 last week. It's a muddy situation, likely meaning we should just build around Henry and Brown rather than chasing any of the other options.)

Jones is fine but does seem a bit over-salaried at $6,500. Brown, however, is fully worth $7,600 and pairs well with Pittman and Taylor whether you decide to go with a full game stack or a mini stack.

Buying Into Kyle Pitts' Role

It was fair to be skeptical of Kyle Pitts' London explosion because it came without Calvin Ridley. But last week, he proved his role isn't going away.

In that game, Pitts finished with eight targets, four of which were deep. That pushes Pitts' deep target share in games with Ridley up to 28.0%, including the early part of the year where they seemingly didn't know how to use him. It has allowed Pitts to rack up 119-plus receiving yards in consecutive games, something that's tough to find at tight end.

Pitts is the highest-salaried tight end on the slate at $6,800. He's well worth that lofty salary as you're effectively jamming a fourth receiver into each lineup.

With that said, we should still keep buying into Ridley despite the disappointing output. Ridley has double-digit targets in 4 of 5 games this year, amounting to 26.8% of the targets in those games with 48.0% of the deep targets. It's hard to replace that at $7,000.

This does mean we're endorsing the usage of three different Atlanta Falcons (with Patterson being the other). That necessitates a look at the Carolina Panthers to see if we have a bring-back option. DJ Moore is an obvious yes... but I kinda think we might need sprinkles of Robby Anderson, as unfortunate as that is.

Anderson's lack of efficiency is well-known by now. But two things that boost efficiency are playing in domes and facing the Falcons, both of which are in Anderson's corner this week. And the volume he has gotten without McCaffrey is massive.

Again, Moore is the clear top option here. But it's hard to completely write off Anderson in such a good spot, especially with the $5,000 range at wide receiver being such a land of despair this week.

The Bills in Blowouts

With the Bills favored by two touchdowns, we'd typically want to be wary of their passing offense. We want to seek out potential shootouts, and those typically come from closer games.

But with the Bills, we already know how they play things in blowouts. All four of their wins are by 18-plus points, which is A) gross, but also B) a big enough sample to dig into.

In those four games, Josh Allen has still averaged 33.0 pass attempts, which isn't too bad. His minimum in that stretch was 26 attempts against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bills ran just 54 plays in that one because Allen was too efficient. Chunk gains can put a dent in pass attempts, and we saw that out of Allen there.

That -- plus the potential for the Dolphins to cover this spread -- puts Allen firmly in the top tier at quarterback. Even when you don't roll out Allen, though, you'll want to prioritize Stefon Diggs.

Despite not having a 20-point game yet, Diggs has dominated targets for the Bills thus far.

Those are the shares with Dawson Knox healthy, which is no longer the case. The 20-point games are inevitable, and Diggs has 30 well within his range of outcomes.

As far as bring-back options go, this one is similar to the Bucs: you don't need any Dolphins in your Allen stacks. If you decide to do it, though, the prime option will depend on DeVante Parker's status.

Parker has been limited in practice this week, which would typically mean he's bound to return. But he did the same last week and ultimately didn't play.

If Parker does play, he's the top option on Miami thanks to the impressive shares he had before his injury.

Parker'd be one of just a few $5,000-range receivers capable of boasting a 20% target share, and he brings deep volume to boot.

If Parker can't go, then we get to go back to Jaylen Waddle once again. Waddle has been fed in the two games since Tua Tagovailoa returned.

You can justify Mike Gesicki regardless because he helps fill tight end, but his proximity to Pitts (just a $500 discount) makes it a tougher sell. Waddle would be the preferred option here if Parker sits.

There's at least some thought to using Myles Gaskin with Malcolm Brown on injured reserve. Gaskin played 62.9% of the snaps last week and handled a 43.8% red-zone share. It's just tougher to feel great about using a back on a team with such a low implied total, making him more of a fringe option than anything else.

The Eagles Without Ertz

This game... kinda rules? We already touched on the potential of D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell. But if you can't talk yourself into Gainwell, the rest of the Philadelphia Eagles' passing game should get the job done.

Last week was our first look at them without Zach Ertz. In that one, Gainwell and Dallas Goedert tied their season-highs for targets, and DeVonta Smith had his second-highest total.

The four deep targets for Goedert were double his previous career high, making him an option at $5,900. The preferred guy here, though, should be Smith.

Smith has shown he has yardage upside by racking up 122 yards back in Week 4. He just hasn't hit paydirt since Week 1. Against this Detroit Lions secondary, you bet your bottom he can find the end zone, making Smith a quality play once again at $6,200.

You can happily pair him with Jalen Hurts, too. Hurts has made a living off of garbage-time touchdowns, but one route to not feasting in garbage time is racking up points earlier in the game. Hurts can make that happen against this defense. Hurts sits behind Allen but is on par with Brady, Tannehill, and Wentz in the second tier at quarterback.

The Lions' optimal bring-back option is Swift over T.J. Hockenson. The biggest drawback of Hockenson is that he's just $600 short of Pitts and doesn't seem to have the same yardage upside. He did, though, go for 97 yards back in Week 1, making him a quality option, especially when you have Eagles in the same lineup. As a standalone option, though, we should favor Pitts.

Tyrod Taylor's Impact

With so few desirable game stacks on the slate, you can justify the Los Angeles Rams' passing game no matter what this week. We're not in position to nitpick a script that may be too positive. But if Tyrod Taylor starts for the Houston Texans, the appeal in the Rams goes up. (UPDATE: Davis Mills has since been named the starter for Week 8.)

Before his injury, Taylor averaged 0.55 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. NEP is numberFire's expected-points metric, and Passing NEP includes deductions for expected points lost on negative plays such as sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. Taylor's mark would lead the league if he were qualified. Obviously, that's unsustainable, but it feels fair to say he'd be an upgrade from Davis Mills' mark of -0.13.

The biggest benefactor if Taylor plays is Brandin Cooks, who might finally have some juice behind his meaty target share. But it also increases the odds this game stays somewhat competitive, which benefits everybody on the Rams' offense.

The two key pieces there -- after accounting for salary -- are Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee. Kupp's volume is through the roof, and Higbee's getting targets where it counts.

With Kupp's bananas role and Higbee's low salary at $5,300, they're justifiable whether it's Taylor or Mills. We should just up our exposure to both if it's Taylor, and Taylor's playing may even be enough to make Robert Woods and Van Jefferson worthy of a sprinkle.

Taylor's status shouldn't influence whether we check out the backfield, though. Even with Mark Ingram gone, we're still likely to see a split here between Phillip Lindsay, David Johnson, and Rex Burkhead. You need about 15 to 20 points out of a running back no matter their salary for them to be a worthwhile play on FanDuel, and it's tough to envision anybody getting there. That may change once we get a better read, but I'm fine missing out if one of these guys blows up.

Our Duty to Use Jeudy

With the Denver Broncos' offense struggling, they need a jolt. The return of Jerry Jeudy can be just that. (UPDATE: Jeudy missed practice Friday with soreness, making it less clear whether he'll be activated this week.)

Jeudy should be close to full steam this week. He was designated to return from IR almost two weeks ago, meaning he has been practicing for a while. That should lower the odds he's eased back in. And as we saw in Week 1, a full-strength Jeudy is a high-usage Jeudy.

Before getting hurt midway through the third quarter, Jeudy had already racked up seven targets, three of which were deep. That was even with K.J. Hamler playing in that game, and he's no longer in the equation. We should expect Jeudy to get about as much work as he can handle.

This isn't an overly attractive game with the total at just 44.5. But with low-salaried receivers borderline impossible to find, Jeudy's worth targeting in his first game back.

The Browns' Improving Health

Speaking of unattractive games, the Cleveland Browns versus the Pittsburgh Steelers is about as gross as it gets (outside of Harris and Chubb). The lone glimmer of hope is that the Browns are getting healthier.

Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Jack Conklin, and Jedrick Wills all got in limited practices on Thursday, seemingly putting them on track to play. If that happens, it'd be the closest we've gotten to seeing the Browns with all the key players this year.

The question is whether that's enough to justify using anybody within the offense. Beckham and Landry aren't playing at full health, nor is Mayfield (if he gets the start). Beckham's $5,700 salary is hard to ignore, but so is his lack of production. It's not totally out of the question to take swipes at the passing game here, but you are banking on a major deviation from what the offense has done previously while facing a top-tier defense that is rested off a bye.