NFL Week 8 Power Rankings: The Colts Deserve Your Attention
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do.
Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after seven weeks.
The Touchdown Underdogs
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 1-5 | -13.14 | 32 | -2 | 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Texans | 1-6 | -12.01 | 31 | 0 | 0.1% | 0.5 |
| Jaguars | 1-5 | -10.95 | 30 | 2 | 0.1% | 0.3 |
| Lions | 0-7 | -9.36 | 29 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Falcons | 3-3 | -8.62 | 28 | 0 | 3.5% | 0.6 |
| Football Team | 2-5 | -7.00 | 27 | -2 | 1.4% | 0.7 |
| Dolphins | 1-6 | -6.67 | 26 | 1 | 0.6% | 1.1 |
Better luck next year to these squads. Even the Atlanta Falcons, sitting at 3-3, have a sub-5% playoff chance, according to numberFire's algorithm. They will face five top-10 opponents the rest of the way, leaving them very little room for error within a division that already features two top-10 teams with winning records.
The Below Average
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 3-4 | -4.14 | 25 | -2 | 7.5% | 1.0 |
| Giants | 2-5 | -3.67 | 24 | 2 | 4.0% | 1.0 |
| Eagles | 2-5 | -3.08 | 23 | -3 | 18.6% | 1.5 |
| Panthers | 3-4 | -2.94 | 22 | -7 | 10.1% | 1.2 |
| Broncos | 3-4 | -2.84 | 21 | 0 | 8.5% | 1.3 |
| Raiders | 5-2 | -1.99 | 20 | 2 | 75.0% | 1.4 |
| Patriots | 3-4 | -1.49 | 19 | 5 | 17.7% | 1.3 |
| Chiefs | 3-4 | -0.70 | 18 | -9 | 46.4% | 1.6 |
| 49ers | 2-4 | -0.02 | 17 | -3 | 16.7% | 0.9 |
I've been keeping close tabs on the Las Vegas Raiders, who have simply been a team that the nERD metric hasn't loved overall this season. Their record is now 5-2, and their playoff odds are ramped up to 75.0% after sitting at 37.7% entering Week 7. My ELO-based point differentials have the Raiders sitting just 19th in the NFL (with an adjusted point differential of -0.2 per game), and nERD has them at a -2.0.
Only 4 of their 10 remaining games are against top-half teams by nERD, so they could be positioned for a playoff run. If that's the case, they might be more of a pretender than a contender, according to the underlying data.
The New England Patriots have a pretty wild split this season. Their 3-4 record comes with a +39 point differential, the seventh-best mark in the NFL -- despite a sub-.500 record. That could imply they've been unlucky in the win department.
However, they have now a +60-point differential against the New York Jets and are a -21 against other opponents. In their defense, they do have three one-score losses. Ultimately, the nERD scores put them at a -1.49 and views them as a below-average team with playoff odds below 20%.
The Kansas City Chiefs seem broken, but they're still 3-4 and have a pretty open schedule upcoming: four of their next six opponents rank outside the top 20 in nERD. Though their playoff odds did plummet from 86.2% to 46.4% this past week, they should be able to stay afloat and make a push at the end of the season, provided Patrick Mahomes is cleared and healthy.
The Good Squads
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 4-3 | 0.05 | 16 | 3 | 48.6% | 1.3 |
| Seahawks | 2-5 | 0.15 | 15 | -2 | 15.3% | 1.5 |
| Packers | 6-1 | 1.26 | 14 | -2 | 93.3% | 1.2 |
| Colts | 3-4 | 1.70 | 13 | 3 | 46.5% | 2.3 |
| Ravens | 5-2 | 2.05 | 12 | -5 | 79.5% | 1.8 |
| Titans | 5-2 | 2.30 | 11 | 6 | 96.6% | 1.2 |
| Saints | 4-2 | 2.45 | 10 | 1 | 78.3% | 1.6 |
| Chargers | 4-2 | 2.59 | 9 | -1 | 73.6% | 1.7 |
| Bengals | 5-2 | 3.09 | 8 | 10 | 72.4% | 2.2 |
| Steelers | 3-3 | 3.82 | 7 | 3 | 35.9% | 2.3 |
| Vikings | 3-3 | 6.64 | 6 | 0 | 56.3% | 1.7 |
The Indianapolis Colts are clinging to relevancy after improving their record to 3-4 with a rain-soaked win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. They had playoff odds of 44.9% entering Week 7 and now sit at just 46.5% to make the postseason in a weak AFC South. They face the Tennessee Titans next week but then get bottom-tier opponents with the Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars after that and also have a late-season bye (Week 14). They're a team to watch out for down the stretch especially if they can knock off the Titans in Week 8.
The Cincinnati Bengals' Week 8 win over the Baltimore Ravens had pretty significant ramifications to get both sides to 5-2 within the AFC North. The Bengals actually lead the division in point differential (+61 to Baltimore's +23), and the Bengals are 6th in point differential per game.
My ELO-based point differentials also have them sixth after opponent adjustments. nERD has them ranked 8th, and their playoff odds went from 45.4% to 72.4% with a key win.
The Great Squads
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 5-1 | 8.83 | 5 | 0 | 97.8% | 2.3 |
| Bills | 4-2 | 10.95 | 4 | -3 | 98.7% | 2.7 |
| Rams | 6-1 | 11.34 | 3 | -1 | 98.5% | 2.5 |
| Buccaneers | 6-1 | 12.07 | 2 | 2 | 99.4% | 2.6 |
| Cardinals | 7-0 | 12.71 | 1 | 2 | 99.2% | 2.7 |
The good teams just keep winning, and seven teams have playoff odds over 90%. It's these top five plus the Titans (96.6%) and the Green Bay Packers (93.3%).
Based on their short-term outlook, each of these five dominant teams should be able to chalk up two more wins over their next three games, as well.
