NFL Betting Guide: Week 7
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Under 50.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Los Angeles Rams are massive 16.5-point favorites in Matthew Stafford's first game against the Detroit Lions, his home from 2009 through 2020. While our model expects the Rams to win easily, it's honing in on the under as the top play in this game.
The Lions come into Week 7 with the seventh-worst offense in the league, according to our rankings. The are averaging just 18.2 points per game (fifth-fewest). Since Week 1's 33-point outburst, that number stands at just 15.2 points, which is one reason that the under has gone 4-1 in that span for Detroit games.
In the past 10 seasons, there have been 14 occasions where a team has faced off against a winless team in Week 7. The under has gone 9-5 in those games.
The Rams are coming off a 27-point thrashing of the New York Giants. The under has gone 5-2 the past seven times that Los Angeles has entered off a win of more than 25 points.
numberFire's model projects the Lions and Rams to combine for 45.0 points this week. We give the under a 65.5% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $125.09 for every $100 wagered, we mark the under as a three-star play.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
Packers -7.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Packers Moneyline (-390): 3-Star Rating out of 5
After showing that he continues to own the Chicago Bears, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head back to Wisconsin to host the 2-4 Washington Football Team. If the game goes how our model expects, the Packers will be walking away with a double-digit victory.
The Packers have won nine in a row as home favorites of at least seven points, dating back to the start of the 2019 season. They've gone 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in those contests.
Conversely, the Football Team has gone 1-8 straight up (SU) and 4-5 ATS as away underdogs of at least seven points in that same time frame. In their past four such contests, the Football Team has lost by at least 14 points, including a 22-point loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 this year.
Since Rodgers started regularly for the Packers in 2008, Green Bay has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in Week 7 when facing a team that has two or fewer wins.
It is thus little surprise that our model projects the Packers to both win and cover this week. We give the Packers an 84.1% chance of winning and a 61.3% chance of covering the 7.5-point spread. We mark the bets as three- and two-star plays, respectively.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Under 46.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Maryland this weekend to take on the Baltimore Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The two teams are averaging the 11th and 7th-most points per game, respectively. Despite that, our model indicates that their matchup won't be that high-scoring.
After a Week 1 loss to the Raiders, the Ravens have won five straight. The under has gone 9-3 in the past 12 games that a home favorite is coming off a winning streak of at least five.
The Bengals and Ravens averaged just 35.5 points in their two meetings last year. They have scored a combined 45 points or fewer in four out of their last five clashes.
Cincinnati is coming off a 23-point win over the Detroit Lions. Since the start of the 2019 season, the under is 9-5 when away underdogs are coming off a win of more than 20 points.
numberFire projects the two teams to combine for 43.7 points this week. We give the under a 58.0% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 10.7%, we mark the under as a two-star play.