FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7 Sunday Night (Colts at 49ers)
On NFL odds, the San Francisco 49ers are 4.5-point home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts in a game with a 43.5-point total. That makes the implied score 24.00-19.50 in favor of San Fran.
Keep an eye on the weather. Heavy rain is in the forecast for the Bay Area.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($15,000)
We've had a few funky single-game slates lately on these island games, and while this one isn't as weird as the Thursday night slate, it's kind of odd as Jonathan Taylor is the highest-salaried player. That's not a slight on Taylor -- it's just rare for a non-quarterback to be atop the player pool.
Our algorithm doesn't have a problem with it, projecting Taylor for a slate-best 16.0 FanDuel points, and with rain expected to be an issue, the Colts could opt to keep the ball on the ground.
The matchup is a neutral one as the 49ers are in the middle of the pack in terms of FanDuel points per game given up to running backs (21.2), but Taylor isn't someone I love as an MVP play in this spot. He doesn't play a ton of snaps -- more than 55% in only one game this season -- and while his 9% target share is respectable, Taylor is at risk of spending more time on the sidelines in favor of Nyheim Hines if the underdog Colts have to get into pass-first mode.
With that said, Taylor obviously projects well, and there aren't many high-upside options on this slate. He should be on the MVP radar, but I'm not sure I'll use him much in the multiplier spot.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($14,500)
The expectation is that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to return and start in this game, and this is a pretty nice spot for him to come back.
The Colts' defense has given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (22.3), and we project Jimmy G for 13.5 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate. And it's a pass-funnel Colts defense as they're limiting running backs to just 15.1 FanDuel points per game, the third-fewest.
But just as was the case with Taylor, there are some reasons to be down on Garoppolo as an MVP pick. I think he'll likely be the most popular MVP (although I could be wrong), and he's struggled from a fantasy standpoint this year. He's scored 14.76, 19.56 and 15.68 FanDuel points in his three full games and tossed just 25 and 30 pass attempts in the two of those games that the Niners won. If San Fran sees a positive game script in this one, Garoppolo's floor and ceiling are pretty meh.
According to our model, Jimmy G projects a lot better than Carson Wentz ($14,000), who we have scoring just 11.8 FanDuel points, so even though I'm not head over house slippers for him, he's a fine place to spend salary.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($13,000)
Deebo Samuel is my favorite MVP play.
As we just touched on, the Colts are a pass-funnel D, and that's led to them surrendering the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (33.4). The usage is there for Samuel. On the year, he's accounted for a 30% target share and 35% air yards share. Yes, please.
We project him for just 11.2 FanDuel points, but on a slate that could be pretty low scoring, Samuel's big-play ability and the matchup with Indy make him awfully appealing.
Michael Pittman, Colts ($12,000)
With Parris Campbell out and T.Y. Hilton ($10,500) looking very iffy, Michael Pittman Jr. could be a target hog.
For the season, he's got a 22% target share and 33% air yards share. No one else on the Colts has an air yards share north of 16%. Pittman has seen at least seven targets in four of the last five games, with the exception being last week's blowout win over the Houston Texans.
It's a middle-of-the-road matchup, and the volume should be there. Unfortunately, our projections are low on him, pegging Pittman for only 7.7 FanDuel points, but I think his potential for good volume makes him a worthwhile target.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers ($11,000)
It's hard to get a feel for the usage in the 49ers' backfield because there have been so many moving parts all year long. That continues this week as JaMycal Hasty ($6,000) is expected to play, so he'll join Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon ($7,500).
Mitchell has played at least 61% of the snaps in all three games for which he's suited up while Hasty hasn't seen more than a 36% snap share in either of his two games. My guess -- and it's a guess -- is that he'll lead the way, with Hasty serving as the number-two back and Sermon possibly being a healthy scratch.
Admittedly, it's not fun to drop $11,000 on a running back who may not be a clear lead back, and the Colts have been really good against the run, holding running backs to the third-fewest FanDuel points per game (15.1). But our model is really into Mitchell, projecting him as the slate's best overall point-per-dollar play and forecasting him to score 12.0 FanDuel points.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($8,500)
With San Fran coming out of their bye week, maybe the 49ers are going to get back to making the most out of having Brandon Aiyuk on their team -- keyword being maybe.
Aiyuk came into 2021 off a really nice rookie campaign, but he's been on the outside looking in from the jump as Samuel has exploded. He has, however, played at least 67% of the snaps in three straight, although he's recorded just a 13% target share and 13% air yards share in that time.
Rostering Aiyuk is a leap of faith and bet on his talent. It's hard to believe the Niners are going to keep using him as an afterthought all season, especially with George Kittle sidelined.
Nyheim Hines, Colts ($8,000)
Hines is always more attractive when the Colts see a negative game script. In games that are more competitive or that Indy wins, Hines spends a lot of time on the sidelines.
He's played at least 45% of the snaps in two games this year, and both of those were losses where the Colts trailed pretty early on. He accounted for 17% of the targets in those two games, and that was the second-best mark on the team.
This could be a Hines-type game with the Colts a 4.5-point road 'dog. He's a fine play at this salary, especially if you're going light on Taylor.
JaMycal Hasty, 49ers ($6,000)
As I said above, Hasty is set to return for this one, and the salary is super nice. Hasty has been in on 29% and 36% of the snaps in his two games this season. He had only six carries and five receptions across those two games, but he's a decent dart throw.
Our algorithm projects Hasty for 6.1 FanDuel points and rates him as the third-best point-per-dollar option on the slate.